Friday, October 11, 2013

Atlantic Blob and the Indian Ocean: October 11, Update A

Well it's Friday night and you know what that means? Yes, that's right... it means there must be a storm out there. In fact there is more than one storm out there... one blobette in the Atlantic, a Typhoon that is crossing the Philippines today, another Tropical Storm in the western Pacific, and a Very BIG Cyclone in the Indian Ocean! 

Typhoon Nari is now over the Philippines as a cat 2 with 105mph winds - it was a cat 3 yesterday. That's tough enough, but the big tropical story is Cyclone Phailin that is due to make landfall in eastern India on Saturday evening (from the Navy website):

It's a category 5 storm with sustained winds estimated to be around 160mph! By definition, a category 5 storm means 'total devastation' which is why we don't have anything stronger. The storm surge is expected to be 15-17 ft over the low-lying areas of this part of India (Odisha and Northern Andra Pradesh coast). Although the Cyclone is a handsome looking storm from above, it's not looking pretty for parts of eastern India.

Compared to that our Atlantic Blob looks like a will-o'-the-wisp:

But it's not. Although the NHC still have this one classified as an area of investigation, I think he is already a Tropical Storm. The circulation is very very strong in the lower half of the troposphere, and you can see the strong convection quite clearly in the infrared satellite image above. I would have called this one Lorenzo already (yes, that really is the next name ... isn't it great? :-)). There is some strong wind shear in his immediate future (actually you can already see this with the clouds streaming off to the east), but I'm not sure if that alone will be enough to stop him. I will look at track options tomorrow - assuming he survives. We'll see what the NHC decide tomorrow. We'll see what Lorenzo decides tomorrow!

In the meantime I shall hope for the best for those in the path of storms today and tomorrow.


Blogs archived at


DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

No comments: