Tuesday, October 01, 2013

Tropical Storm Jerry and the Caribbean Blobette: October 1, Update A

In case you missed it: The government shut down. That’s definitely not the bee’s knees! I’d call that a sockdollager that discombobulated a lot of people today. Things are a bit catawumpus but it’s not a foofaraw, alas. I’ve heard a lot of people say it is phonus balonus and I’m sure some people may already be slightly spifflicated. I hope for a rapid conclusion to this hogwash and I say to my friends who have been furloughed: May The Force Be With You!! (and have fun deciphering that logolepsical smorgasbord, including the neologisms... Shakespeare would be pleased). ;-)

Tropical Storm Jerry
Apparently the government wasn't the only thing that shut down today! Jerry also decided to take a hiatus and remained in the same place, at 28.1N, 43.5W, all day. He didn't go west (where the skies are blue (PSB)) as forecast yesterday. I was a little dubious about that forecast because although the high pressure was building up to the north and northwest, it didn't really go away from his south or east so he was effectively blocked in from all sides today. Although I don't have the same resolution of information, I think the forecast track they have for him today looks more reasonable:
His winds did officially increase to 50mph last night, but are back at around 45mph now. Central pressure is 1007mb. This seems like a good estimate to me. It looks like he's tuckered himself out because he didn't move west and away from the dry air, and because he remained over the same area of water all day:

There is very little strong convection at the moment even though there is pretty decent circulation in the lower half of the troposphere. If he moves away from the dry air and the water is still warm, he may get stronger.

Caribbean Blobette
The NHC have increased this blobette's chances of development to 30% in the next 2 days, and 50% in the next 5 days. Here's a snapshot of her convective activity that I grabbed around 4pm today:

And this is what she looks like now, about 6 hours later:

Yeah, you can play spot the difference. There really hasn't been much change in her convection during the day today. Her vorticity (circulation), although a bit stronger now, is a little higgledy piggledy as well. The lowest tropospheric level is now more like a front than a tropical storm and it stretches from Central America to Cuba; and the mid-tropospheric level circulation is to the east of the lower levels, closer to Jamaica.

The forecast for now continues to move her to the northwest and into the Gulf. I think she may track a little more westward than currently forecast. 

Now it's high time for a spot of noodle juice and the exciting end of Inferno (Mr. Brown's version, not Mr. Alighieri's).


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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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