Friday, October 04, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen: October 4, Update B

"The Queen had only one way of settling all difficulties, great or small."  (Lewis Carroll) Off with her head! :-)

The NHC write that "KAREN HAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR". I know we are approaching Halloween, but recovery from decapitation seems unlikely and at this rate Tropical Storm Karen might just fizzle out in the Gulf!

She has weakened even further and now has winds of 45mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1002mb.  As I suspected yesterday, she did become stationary for a portion of the day today but is now on the move again, heading NNW at 7mph, and is currently at 26.4N, 90.5W. Although that's her central location, her convection is over 100 miles to the east (and continues to be pushed to the east) as you can see in this infrared satellite image:

There is pretty good circulation in the lower levels of the troposphere (you can just about see the faint center on this satellite image), but the circulation in the middle troposphere (her head) is marked by the convection.

The track forecast still takes her to the northern Gulf coast:

and the cone still covers pretty much the same areas of land as it did before. At the moment I think she is moving along the western side of this cone but we should see a curve to the north and then northeast - probably tomorrow. That's the uncertain part of this - where and when will she turn. She may still skirt a bunch of that coastline before moving inland... assuming she is still around by then!

Mike A., enjoy the hurricane party in NOLA! :-) Here I have far more important things to do... like figuring out what flavour to replenish my dwindling ice cream stock with! ;-)
More tomorrow!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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