Friday, October 04, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen and Jerry the Blob: October 4, Udpate A

Time for a quick update...

Jerry the Blob
He's pretty much winding down. a bit-o-circulation left in the lowest level of the troposphere, but it's diminishing. This is my last entry on Jerry.

Tropical Storm Karen
The NHC have downgraded her, and quite appropriately too! I approve! :-) Officially winds are 50mph, which makes her a weak-to-mid-intensity Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is 1003mb.

Her circulation in the middle of the troposphere has started to weaken, although there is still some. That lovely dry air and wind shear and shallow warm water are still inhibiting her development. The wind shear is so strong that you can clearly see the center of circulation:

She is around 25.9N, 90.1W and looks like she's heading N-NNWish (the last NHC update had her moving at 9mph, so she has slowed down a bit since yesterday). The forecast track is:

Landfall has been shifted back again to the early hours of Sunday morning. But the bulk of the convection is on the east, so keep that in mind. Really too soon to pin-point exact landfall (as you can tell from the large cone), but if she continues to diminish, we'll be more-or-less ok. Just keep an eye on your local water levels if you live on the coast... from Tides Online, water levels along the coast are around 0.5-1 ft above normal in FL and AL and somewhere in the 1-2ft above normal range in MS and LA.

That's it for now. It's a lovely day here in St. Petersburg, Florida. The sky has patches of blue, and the clouds are keeping the temperatures a fraction cooler... or maybe that's the air conditioning... ;-)

More later!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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