Saturday, November 21, 2020

Not One Iota: November 20, Update A

Now THIS is what I call a good Friday evening... 

Iota did fizzle out a couple of days ago - well done El Salvador for putting a stop to that one! Hurricane Iota was the 2nd cat 5 hurricane in the month of November (the first known one was in 1932 and hit Cuba). The extent of the damage is not known, but over 50 people lost their lives and almost as many are still missing. This is my last update on Iota.

I've had a few queries about hurricanes in December, and it is possible. Time for a Science Alert! Oooh... it maybe the last hurricane science alert of the season so you better make the most of it! ;-)

<Science Alert!> The Atlantic Hurricane season which runs from June 1 to November 30 is based on statistics - around 97% of all hurricanes occur in those 6 months. Which, of course, means the other ~3% occur in the other months.

Here is a figure I made in 2006 that shows the track of all storms from 1851 to 2005, divided into the month they formed (graph credit: MOI ;-))

You can see storm tracks in all months - even February and March! So, it is statistically possible for something to pop up in December (but it would be really nice if we were done for the year now!). 

The other interesting thing this shows is that early in the season and late in the season, storms pop up closer to the Caribbean/North America, whereas from July - September, they come over from the eastern Atlantic. So to have storms pop up in the Caribbean like Eta and Iota did at this time of year is the norm - it's the intensity that is on the severe end of the spectrum, although not unheard of around this time of year as we know from the 1932 cat 5 Cuba Hurricane, and even Hurricane Wilma in 2005, which was a late October cat 5 storm. <End Science Alert!>

That's it for today until the next one (which would be Kappa - hopefully not) or the end of the Hurricane Season (which will be in 10 days - hopefully). 

Toodle pip!


Twitter:  jyovianstorm

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 

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