Tropical Depression Eta: November 6, Update A

Not too much of a change since yesterday on any front really...

(from The Oatmeal - I think)

Tropical Depression Eta also did not change and is still a TD with winds of 35mph, central pressure 1002mb. Not a big surprise as the circulation (vorticity) wasn't really in place at any level of the troposphere and there is some wind shear. It's currently at 18N, 85.2W and is heading NW at a pretty respectable 12mph. 

The NHC think it'll become a Tropical Storm in the next 12 hours. Let's see... there is some decent convection which is getting stronger - this is to be expected as it's over some very warm water (and deep warm water): 

And the vorticity has improved in the lower half of the troposphere. Here's the lowest level at 850mb height: 

It looks much more cohesive than yesterday. At the mid-level (500mb height) it's also improved - although not quite circular yet:

So I agree with the NHC - Tropical Storm Eta will be back tomorrow. It does look like it's a little to the east of the official center, but I'll defer to the NHC for the general track.

There is a fair bit of wind shear, which we see in the satellite imagery as the clouds are whisked away to the northeast. It looks like this will continue as the storm moves north across the Caribbean tomorrow which will keep it in check, despite the warm water. I also see some dry air to the west which it will run into as it is gets nearer the Gulf of Mexico so overall, this won't be a major storm. 

Signing off to ce soir!

Ciao,
J. 

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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