Tropical Storm Eta: November 11, Update A

A little earlier in the day today because of Tropical Storm Eta (I'm ignoring Theta for today), so no wine, but I have a nice cuppa tea. :-) 

Eta, on the other hand, is going to make landfall north of Tampa Bay tomorrow morning. It is currently at 27.9N, 83.4W, heading N at a respectable 12mph. 

They did upgrade it to a cat 1 hurricane, but it has weakened because of that dry air I mentioned yesterday and is now a strong Tropical Storm with official winds of 70mph, central pressure 993mb (TS range: 39-73mph). It's lost a lot of convection this morning because of that dry air, but it looks like that is decreasing now as there is more convection in the last few hours: 

The circulation (vorticity) is really strong in the lower half of the troposphere, but a little removed in the upper level so it's in keeping with a strong Tropical Storm. It continues to be in some wind shear with the clouds mostly on the eastern side, which is also keeping it in check of course. 

Luckily I did jinx it and it's by-passing Tampa Bay now, but the angle of this storm means that the water will be pushed into the Bay so there definitely be flooding in all the usual places. Storm surge from tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov show (for example), in St. Petersburg, the water levels are over 3ft above normal... 

And Old Port, Tampa is showing water 3,5 ft above normal.

Eta is passing by TB - here's the pressure from the St. Pete station: 

The peak winds recorded were around 33knots = 38mph, so not Tropical Storm force in that location.  

The current path looks like landfall will be close to Cedar Key... historically, Cedar Key is prone to flooding. I've seen early season Tropical Storms like this that result in 8ft or so storm surges there... so if you are there, get ready for a water event rather than a wind event. It's already about 2.5ft above normal. 

There are buoys off the west Florida coast (I should know as that is where my PhD data came from :-)) - operated through the College of Marine Science, USF, and part of a US-wide network of extremely useful and valuable coastal ocean observations. One of them (closer to Tampa Bay) is showing winds of around 40mph, air pressure of 1002mb, however a mooring farther offshore recorded a low pressure of 993mb, which corresponds to the official NHC air pressure in the center - which suggests that the center may have passed right over this location.

I agree with the NHC that this storm will continue to weaken before landfall. It's really going to be a storm surge/water issue than wind I think - although be careful as trees knock down power lines which don't mix well with water! And of course, listen to your Emergency Managers. 

Wishing everyone a good Veterans Day and Remembrance Day - depending on which country you hail from! 

Be safe out there! 

J. 

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

--------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
--------------------------------------