Sunday, November 15, 2020

Tropical Storm Iota: November 14, Update A

A rather quick note for today on our troublesome Tropical Storm Iota, which was named yesterday.

It's now at 12.7N, 77W in the Caribbean and is heading W at a rather slow 5mph. 

I call it troublesome because it's on a similar path as Eta - expected to intensify into a major hurricane and then go into Nicaragua and Central America. They are already struggling to recover from Hurricane Eta in that part of the world so if this pans out, it's a major disaster in the making. 

Winds are currently 70mph, central pressure is 990mb, which means it's almost a cat 1 storm (Cat 1 range: 74 - 95mph). 

The vorticity is really good in the lower half of the troposphere, but there is also a signal in the upper troposphere now which suggests to me that Iota is already a weak cat 1 hurricane. We can already see that the convection has improved a lot in the last few hours... 

There's no eye yet, so winds are definitely not over 85mph yet. Unfortunately there is barely any wind shear and the water is very warm, and there is very little dry air - all the signs are there for intensification and I agree with the NHC that this will be a hurricane tomorrow. It may even be  a major one (cat 3 or higher) by the end of the day. 

Iota by name, but not Iota by nature... there will be a lot more on this one for sure! 

Ciao for now,


Twitter:  jyovianstorm

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 

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