Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Storm Sally, Tropical Depressions Rene and 20, an Atlantic Blobette and a Gulf of Mexico Blob: September 12, Update A

Six storms a blowin', Five chances over 50%, Four already red, Three in the Atlantic, Two Tropical Depressions, and One Hurri-cane... On the seventh day of Christmas... Oh, sorry, wrong season. ;-)  

So, it's a bit busy out there. This week in September is, statistically the busiest in any Hurricane Season but I don't think I've seen quite this many at the same time before! And actually September 10th is the peak day... so it'll all quieten down after this week. Statistically speaking. Here's a figure that shows the distribution of the number of storms throughout the season (taken from data spanning 100 years): 

Hurricane Paulette

As expected, Paulette toppled over into Hurricane territory today, but is a very weak cat 1 with winds of 75 mph (cat 1 range: 74 - 95mph), central pressure 981mb. She is currently at 28.9N, 59.7W, heading WNW at 14mph and on track to get to Bermuda by Monday morning, although the dodgy weather and raindrops will be there Sunday night. The NHC expect her to be weak(ish) cat 2 when she gets to Bermuda with winds of around 100mph. 

She is slowly emerging from the wind shear she's been battling over the last couple of days which will allow her to strengthen. She certainly has a bit of convection, as we can see in this (still quite poor quality - I don't know what they have done to the algorithms but it's been particularly bad this season!) satellite imagery:

She is also over some warm water, so there's nothing there that will stop her from growing... BUT, there is some dry air. You can see both the wind shear with clouds streaming off to the northeast, and the dry air this in the imagery above as well as here:

This is the water vapor in the upper levels of the troposphere and that area of purple and white that is wrapping around to her north is the drier air. It's even more obvious as you go to the lowest regions of the troposphere:

So, if anything will help to keep her in check, this will be it if it can continue to wrap around and into her center - that's what we want to watch for in the next 12-18 hours. 

Her circulation is very strong in the lower half of the troposphere, and there is some in the upper troposphere as well although it's not quite contained as we see with stronger hurricanes, but she is definitely a hurricane.

Remember: listen to your local emergency managers - they know the lay of the land. And we generally say run from the water, hide from the wind - if you are in a flood-prone area, move inland or to higher ground if you can. Otherwise, hunker down. (This also applies to Tropical Storm Sally folks - especially if she brings water to New Orleans, of which parts are below sea level anyway). Be well out there! 

Tropical Storm Sally

Our Tropical Depression 19 is now Tropical Storm Sally and has crossed the very southern tip of Florida and is in the Gulf. She did track a little south of the forecast yesterday as she crossed Florida, but the eventual landfall end is still the central northern Gulf coast on Tuesday. She's at 26.7N, 83.4W, heading WNW at 8mph. 

It looks like she brought some rain to Florida today and will continue to do so tomorrow...

Winds are now 45mph, central pressure is 1003mb, which makes her a weak Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). Her circulation is strong in the lower half of the troposphere, in keeping with a Tropical Storm - although it's a little elongated in the middle level which indicates a weaker system because the vertical storm structure is a little wonky (technical jargon for 'wonky' ;-)). Here's the vorticity (circulation) map for the lowest level (850mb) and you can see all the storms marked: 

Here's the one from the middle level (500mb):

And here's the one from the upper level (200mb) for completeness:

She will be moving over water that is warmer than 29 deg C as she crosses the Gulf, so certainly enough to keep her fed, and as she moves away from Florida, the upper ~75-100 m will be warmer than 26 deg C. So the ocean won't inhibit her from slowly growing. There is also very little dry air in the atmosphere. The one thing she is battling is wind shear at the moment, which we can see as the convection is to the southeast of the center and some clouds are streaming to the southeast as well, but that looks like it will subside soon. It looks like her center may be a little south of the official location from the satellite imagery and the vorticity maps, but that could be because of this wind shear. To sum up, she will gradually get stronger as she moves farther into the Gulf. The NHC forecast her to be a mid-sized cat 1 at landfall. 

Tropical Depression Rene

I know I wasn't going to mention Rene again, but this one is just for the records. He's a Tropical Depression at 25.3N, 46.4W, heading NW at 13mph. Winds are only 30mph, central pressure is 1011mb. This time this is really the last note on him. 

Tropical Depression 20

This was the Atlantic Blob from yesterday. It's at 11.9N, 34.6W, heading WNW at 10mph.

Winds are 35mph, central pressure is estimated to be 1007mb. There is pretty decent circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but I also see some circulation in the upper levels as well from the vorticity maps above. This indicates that he's already a Tropical Storm, but not quite a hurricane yet because the structure in the lower troposphere is elongated and still connected to the Atlantic Blobette (see below).  

Tomorrow this will be Tropical Storm Teddy (Bear). I don't think Teddy is a full first name... isn't it a nickname for Edward or Theodore? Anyway, they can't use Theodore though because it used to be on the list of Tropical Cyclone names and was retired after the 1993/94 season, when it was a cat 5 Cyclone with winds of 130mph (which we would consider a borderline cat 3/cat 4 Hurricane) that hit Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and New Caledonia in February of 1994. And they can't use Ted either because that was also retired following the 1976/77 season when it hit Queenland, Australia as a category 4 Cyclone in December on 1976 with winds of 115mph (which would be a weak cat 3 Hurricane). So, Teddy Bear it is I suppose. 

Atlantic Blobette

Hanging out just around the Cape Verde Islands at 15N, 24W, this blobette has a 50% chance of developing into something. It's moving WNW. As you can see from the vorticity maps above, there is some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but it's still attached to TD 20 and not as strong, so it's not quite at Tropical Depression level. There is some convection, as you can see from the satellite imagery below, and not much wind shear at the moment, so we'll see how quickly this becomes a TD. 

Gulf of Mexico Blob

This little yellow marker only has a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours. There isn't any convection to speak of and the circulation is only in the very lowest levels of the troposphere, so this isn't even actually a bunch'o'clouds. I won't mention this again unless it looks like it'll develop into something. 

Phew. Don't know about you but I'm gonna need more ice cream... and cheese and wine... 

Ciao for now,

J.

Twitter: jyovianstorm

--------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
--------------------------------------

Tropical Storms Paulette and Rene, Tropical Depression 19, and assorted Blobs: September 11, Update A

OK, I think we've had enough art from the NHC this year. My fridge doesn't have any more room to put them up so you can put your paint brushes away now. Really. 

And if you wanted to know what that looks like 'IRL' (In Real Life)... here's the corresponding satellite imagery across the Atlantic: 

Tropical Depression 19

Starting with the one closest to land... yesterday this officially had a 10% chance of developing in the next 48%, but I suppose that's the probability for everything in 2020 so I should have paid more attention! It's at 25.7N, 79.8W, heading WNW at 8mph and is already bringing a few drops of rain over the Bahamas and southern Florida. 

It's winds are 35mph, central pressure is 1007mb, so it's not a Tropical Storm. There is some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but not very strong, so I agree that this is a Tropical Depression at the moment. It's tricky to see the center where they say it is from the satellite image... 

That's because there is some wind shear which is pushing the convection to the south. From the imagery and the vorticity maps, I'd say the center is a little south of the official location. However, they got the center from the Miami radar, so I'll go with that. 

This part of Florida is quite soggy (Everglades), so the land interaction won't really stop this one from developing slowly. It is also over some very warm water - 30 deg C - which will also help in the slow development. However, there is a bit of wind shear over the southern point of Florida, so that will stop her from rapidly developing. Still, I think they'll name her tomorrow. The next name is Sally. 

Tropical Storm Paulette

She's at 25.8N, 54.8W, and continues to head NW but at a faster 16mph. Regarding the track - she can go anywhere in that cone, so don't just focus on the middle part (unless you live on Bermuda, in which case, you probably should focus on that middle part!). 

Winds are now a little stronger than yesterday at 70mph, central pressure is 987mb, which makes her a very strong Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). There is still some wind shear which we can see as the clouds continue to drift off to the north east in the satellite imagery above, but she should start emerging from that tomorrow, so I can see why they say she'll be a hurricane soon. The current NHC forecast is for a cat 2 storm with winds close to 100mph as she passes Bermuda on Monday morning. 

The vorticity maps show a strong circulation in the lowest level of the troposphere (850mb):

And in the mid-level (500mb): 

The upper level (200mb) is interesting - she is actually on the edge of an upper level low pressure trough, which you can see sweep around and to the east, so she's not quite a hurricane yet. 

The one thing that will keep her in check once she clears the wind shear is dry air, but it doesn't look like it will last all the way to Bermuda... 

Bermuda peeps - after you've secured your boats, don't forget to secure the car... I found this helpful photo...

(Image from the Bermemes website) 

Tropical Storm Rene

He's still chasing after Paulette, but not very successfully. He's barely a Tropical Storm with winds of 40mph, central pressure of 1004 mb. But he is still one because there is circulation in the lower half of the troposphere. However his convection is struggling to take hold because of dry air and the NHC expect him to become just a TD by Monday evening as he will also be in some wind shear before then. He's at 21.4N, 42.4W, heading WNW at 14mph. 

I think I'll stop with the Rene updates after this one as he's 'Mostly Harmless'. But if he doesn't behave, I'll have a few more words to say. 

Atlantic Blob - the red one

This is the one that came Out of Africa a couple of days ago. There is some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but it is part of a much larger area of activity as we can see in the vorticity maps, so it's not quite the structure of a Tropical Storm yet. This has an 80% chance of developing into something in the next 48 hours. It is currently moving westward at 15-20mph. 

Atlantic Blob - the yellow one

This one has a 20% chance of developing into something in the next 48 hours and is moving generally westwards. The vorticity appears to be connected to the other Atlantic Blob, so it really isn't very well developed at all. 

Gulf of Mexico Blob

This one also has a 20% chance of development and is moving generally westward. It may have some showers but you can see that it doesn't have much circulation at all from the vorticity maps. So not really much going on here. 

Did I miss any? Headcount... ok, good, all the kids are accounted for. Phew, I'm glad I went shopping yesterday and got two more tubs of ice cream and re-stocked on wine. It looks like it may be a silly sort of looong weekend... ;-)

Ciao for now,

J.

Twitter: jyovianstorm

--------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
--------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Paulette, Tropical Storm Rene, and the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Blobettes and Blob: September 10, Update A

Must be a Thursday.... Again. The art classes at the NHC continue - hmm, today the storms are in straight lines, I think it must be Cubism... 

Not much time to dilly dally today, alas (because it's Thursday of course). So, the two yellow blobs only have a 10% chance of development, so we'll postpone talking about those until tomorrow (and then we'll decide if they are worthy). 

The orange blobette is now Out of Africa and has a 60% chance of becoming something. It's generally moving westward. 

Tropical Storm Paulette

She's currently at 22.7N, 50.9W, heading NW at 10mph. She's taken that turn to the NW as expected after a more WNW track for most of today. 

The mid-level circulation has actually deteriorated since yesterday because of the wind shear, so she's not looking very circular at the moment and we continue to see clouds streaming off to the northeast... 

I think she's perhaps weakened a little today from that shear, although the NHC have increased her intensity from 60mph to 65 mph winds and central pressure is estimated to be 991mb. This makes her a strong Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). They don't anticipate any strengthening tomorrow. I think she may weaken a bit more tomorrow.

She'll continue to go through that area of wind shear tomorrow, but she is about to move over water that's 28-29 deg C, so that will keep her fed to some extent (with water over 26 deg C in the upper ~75-100m). She also has some dry air to the west and north of her, so that will work against her. 

Bermuda - best get ready for a hurricane just in case. Dust off the umbrellas, get the rum ready...

Tropical Storm Rene

He has strengthened a little today and is now still a weak TS with winds of 45mph, central pressure of 1002mb. I still think that they have underestimated this one, but not by much - you can see his vorticity (circulation) is stronger in the mid-levels of the troposphere than Paulette's: 

But there isn't anything in the upper levels, so he's definitely only a Tropical Storm. I'd say he would be a mid-level storm - somewhere around 50-55mph winds. But he'll get there one day, I'm sure. From the satellite vantage point, his convection is a little wishy washy (if one can say that about a rain event :-)) so he isn't a strong storm by any means. 

He's currently at 19.3N, 37.6W, heading WNW at 12mph. 

And with that, I'm off to have a short nap before Friday shows up (oh, it just turned midnight... too late :-)). 

Toodle pip!

J.

Twitter: jyovianstorm

--------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
--------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Paulette, Tropical Storm Rene, two Atlantic Blobettes, and one Atlantic Blob: September 9, Update A

I suppose the one thing we can say about 2020 is that it hasn't been dull. Snow in Colorado and massive fires in my general neck of the woods... not literal woods! and, fortunately for me, not literally where I am - we've just had mildly yellow skies but up north a bit, did you see the red skies around midday today in the San Fransisco Bay area?!?

(Image credit: Getty via TMZ)

Yikes!! 

Mother Nature is having a field day (year)! And over yonder in the Atlantic today, someone got the full paintbox out and created something that Jackson Pollock may have done in his early, lesser-known years... 

The bright side to this map is that there isn't much room for anything else in the Atlantic! Did you spot the orange blob trying to create a name for itself before it's even left Africa - a little over-achiever. ;-) 

Tropical Storm Paulette

She's currently at 20.9N, 48.1W, heading WNW at 10mph. So, generally staying on a westward track, which I agree she'll continue to do tomorrow... beyond that, I'll have to go with the NHC's track. So, dear pals on Bermuda... get the dark & stormy's ready! 

Paulette is still a mid-sized Tropical Storm with winds of 60mph, central pressure 996mb (TS range: 39-73mph). Today, I agree with the Tropical Storm status - there is good circulation (vorticity) in the lower half of the troposphere but nothing in the upper levels. She's sorted herself out as far as that convection goes and looks like a proper storm now: 

There is still some wind shear as you can see from the clouds that are streaming off to the northeast, but it looks like she's definitely moving into an area of stronger wind shear which we can see from the wind shear map because the pink lines are closer together in front of her: 

It's tricky to say how strong she'll be after that interaction with the wind shear, but the NHC think she will be just fine and strengthen after getting through. 

Tropical Storm Rene

Monsieur Rene is at 18N, 34W, heading WNW at 13mph. He's the red convective blob to the southeast of Paulette in the satellite image of the Atlantic above.

He's still officially barely a Tropical Storm with winds of 40mph, central pressure 1003mb. I still think this is an underestimation because there is good circulation throughout the lower half of the troposphere. He also has a bunch of convection as you can see in the image of the Atlantic. 

Atlantic Blobettes and Blob

May as well lump them all together because who knows which will emerge first. 

Starting with the orange blob that's just about coming out of Africa and has a 40% chance of developing. There was some convection, which we can also see in that top Atlantic satellite image. There is limited data that far to the east, but there is some circulation (vorticity) in the very lowest level of the troposphere, so it is possible that this will be the next storm. Here's a cool Infrared (black and white) satellite image that covers Africa, which shows what the 40% blobette looks like:

Next... the yellow blob that's closest to the US east coast, which has a 20% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. It's currently around 32N, 75.5W, heading NW at 10-15mph. It'll move over the North Carolina coast sometime tomorrow - so expect rain if you live along the coast (or are on vacation there... you asked for no storms, you didn't say anything about rain... ;-)).

And finally, the yellow blob near the Bahamas - that has a 0% chance of development, so I really think someone was just enjoying their art class. I'm not going to bother. :-)

Righto! I think we'll just call today a day and see what shiny new things tomorrow brings. 

Toodle pip!

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

--------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
--------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Paulette, Tropical Depression Rene, and the Atlantic Blobette: September 8, Update A

I was away for a few days on my annual trip to Planet (Virtual) DragonCon and re-entry to Planet Earth was a little slow yesterday... but here I am back in the real world. Did I miss anything? ;-) 

Tropical Storm Paulette

Paulette materialized a couple of days ago (I may have been on another planet, but I was still watching) and is now at 19.2N, 45W heading NW at 9mph. 

The greater-than-five-day forecast looks like she's heading to Bermuda... so that is most likely where she won't be going. ;-) I agree with that more westward track in the next day or two because she's moving along the southern edge of a high pressure ridge. 

Winds are officially at 60mph, central pressure is 997mb, which means she's a mid-sized Tropical Storm. I think this is an underestimation of her strength because there is good circulation (vorticity) throughout the troposphere - including the upper levels which indicates she's closer to a hurricane (and may already be one). There is also a lot of convection, as we can see in the satellite imagery...

Her convection is the northern red blob... some of you may have noticed a second red blob just to the southeast of Paulette. Very interesting. Here's a close up over the last ~12 hours:

It's all part of the same system, but really interesting in appearance. Both areas of convection are over separate small patches of warm water where the upper 80 m of water is warmer than 26 deg C, with an area in between in which only the upper 70m or so is warmer than 26 deg C. But that's not enough to explain the separation of the two regions of convection - it also looks like there is a sliver of dry air that is being pulled in between the two from the west and gets wrapped around the northern convective area.  There is some wind shear which is impacting the northern part of the storm - you can see the clouds streaming off to the northeast. It's not clear yet how long that wind shear will be around, so it may not have much of an impact.

Tropical Depression Rene

Meanwhile, to the east of Paulette is Rene. He is currently a Tropical Depression with winds of 35mph, central pressure 1004mb. He was a Tropical Storm earlier today and yesterday, but officially a very weak one. His winds officially got to a maximum of 40mph before weakening, which barely means he should have been named as the TS range is 39-73mph. However, I think they have also underestimated him - he has some really good vorticity (circulation) throughout the troposphere which means he is a fully-fledged Tropical Storm. His convection took a little bit of a nose-dive as he passed directly over the Cape Verde Islands and over some cooler water, but he's back in full swing now:

He's at 17N, 29.3 W, heading WNW at 16mph and doesn't look like he's aiming for anything other than islands in the eastern North Atlantic....

Atlantic Blobette

And there's another blobette in the Atlantic because sometimes 2 just isn't enough. This one is at around 30N, 71W - there is some vorticity in the lowest levels of the troposphere, but nothing at the mid-levels yet, so definitely just a blobette. Not much convection either, but worth just keeping an eye on. They give her a 30% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

More tomorrow! I'm still intergalactic-jet-lagged so time for a nap. 
Ciao for now,

J.

Twitter: jyovianstorm

--------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
--------------------------------------

Hurricane Nana: September 2, Update A

It was a terribly busy sort of day and it's not even a Thursday! 

Hurricane Nana is at 17N, 87.5W, heading W at 16mph and is scheduled to make landfall in Belize tonight...

The track has shifted a little to the south as she stayed on the southern edge of the cone. That will continue and I think landfall will be very close to the southern edge of Belize/Guatemala area. 

Winds are 75mph, central pressure is 994mb, so she's only just a cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). The vorticity (circulation) is quite robust in the lower half of the troposphere and is actually centered on Honduras as you can see from the mid-level vorticity map here: 

There isn't any upper level vorticity immediately overhead but there is some over the Caribbean, not too far off, which suggests a very weak structure - more of a Tropical Storm than hurricane. 

As expected, Honduras got a little soaked today. Overall, I agree with the NHC that she'll weaken quite quickly once she gets onto land - we can already begin to see that in the satellite imagery. 

That's all for today. Time for a nice nap... 

Toodle pip!

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

--------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
--------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Nana and Tropical Storm Omar: September 1, Update A

Just in case you missed it, today is the 1st of September and for hurricane season, that means...

Bwaahaahaahaa... so funny, I had to use it twice! ;-) 

Meanwhile, on the hamster wheel we have two named storms today. Deja vu, anyone? 

Tropical Storm Nana

This was TD 16, the blob in the Caribbean yesterday. As I said yesterday, I thought it looked a lot stronger than Tropical Depression 15 and it looks like the NHC came to the same conclusion today, after sending a plane into the system to investigate this morning.

She is now at 17N, 80.9W, heading W at 18mph. I agree with this westward track, and there's a good possibility that she may stay on the southern end of this cone, maybe moving the track south a little. 

She is definitely a Tropical Storm. Officially winds are 60mph, central pressure is 999mb, which makes her a mid-size Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). There is a lot of convection in this storm:

This is because she is moving over very warm sea surface waters, and it's also quite deep warm water - the upper ~150m is warmer than 26 deg C - so she has plenty to munch on and grow.

The vorticity (circulation) is strong in the lower half of the troposphere, but they haven't updated the latest data so I can't see if there is any in the upper troposphere yet. For now, Tropical Storm she is! I'd say she's stronger than the 60mph winds already, but I agree with the NHC forecast which calls for her to become a cat 1 hurricane in the next 24 hours. There is a (very) little dry air to the west but not much wind shear, so there's no reason for her not to get stronger. Here's a close-up... 

Obviously Honduras and Nicaragua will start to get rain in a few hours.

Tropical Storm Omar

He's in the Atlantic, currently at 35.8N, 70W, heading ENE at 14mph and will stay out in the Atlantic....

Winds are officially 40mph, central pressure is 1003mb, which makes him barely a Tropical Storm. There's some vorticity in the lowest level of the troposphere, but not too much in the mid-levels. There is some convection which you can see just flared up because he's over the Gulf Stream, but there is a lot of wind shear so the convection is all to the east of the center...

I wouldn't actually call this one a Tropical Storm, but its too late now. I think this will be my last update on Omar unless he does something odd tomorrow. 

Ciao for now,

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

--------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
--------------------------------------

Tropical Depression 15 and the Caribbean Blob: August 31, Update A

Well, that was a nice break. Of A Day. There won't be any ice cream left at this rate! ;-) 

Tropical Depression 15 

This one is off the North Carolina coast, at 33.2N, 75.7W, and is heading out into the Atlantic - NE at 14 mph. I agree with this path...

As for the intensity, I'd also agree with the Tropical Depression status as well. There is some good circulation (vorticity) in the lowest level of the troposphere, and it is slowly improving in the mid-levels. Not quite at Tropical Storm status yet, but the structure is better now than it was this morning. There is some convection...

This may be Tropical Storm Nana tomorrow, but should be a harmless little thing... really, if you call a storm 'Nana', how can you expect anything but that? It's so cute. 

Caribbean Blob

This one has a 70% chance of developing, but you can see from the satellite imagery that he has more convection than TD15.

He's about to dump a lot of rain over Jamaica - who also got a lot last week from Laura. 

He has actually got pretty good circulation (vorticity) in the mid-troposphere, and a decent amount in the lower levels so I would say he may actually be closer to being a Tropical Storm than TD 15. His circulation is southeast of Jamaica - somewhere around 15N, 73W and he's moving W at 15-20mph. Here's the vorticity map from 500mb (mid-troposphere):

If this one gets named after TD15, he will be Tropical Storm Omar. 

That's it for now, but tomorrow is the 1st of September and you know what that means? Yes, the we're half way through the hurricane season of 2020...

Now you've seen this, you'll never hear the phrase 'half way there' again and not, in your head (or aloud), say 'whooaaa... lemon on a pear'. Trust me. Heeheeheee... you are welcome. :-)

Toodle pip!

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

--------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
--------------------------------------