Tropical Depression 15 and the Caribbean Blob: August 31, Update A

Well, that was a nice break. Of A Day. There won't be any ice cream left at this rate! ;-) 

Tropical Depression 15 

This one is off the North Carolina coast, at 33.2N, 75.7W, and is heading out into the Atlantic - NE at 14 mph. I agree with this path...

As for the intensity, I'd also agree with the Tropical Depression status as well. There is some good circulation (vorticity) in the lowest level of the troposphere, and it is slowly improving in the mid-levels. Not quite at Tropical Storm status yet, but the structure is better now than it was this morning. There is some convection...

This may be Tropical Storm Nana tomorrow, but should be a harmless little thing... really, if you call a storm 'Nana', how can you expect anything but that? It's so cute. 

Caribbean Blob

This one has a 70% chance of developing, but you can see from the satellite imagery that he has more convection than TD15.

He's about to dump a lot of rain over Jamaica - who also got a lot last week from Laura. 

He has actually got pretty good circulation (vorticity) in the mid-troposphere, and a decent amount in the lower levels so I would say he may actually be closer to being a Tropical Storm than TD 15. His circulation is southeast of Jamaica - somewhere around 15N, 73W and he's moving W at 15-20mph. Here's the vorticity map from 500mb (mid-troposphere):

If this one gets named after TD15, he will be Tropical Storm Omar. 

That's it for now, but tomorrow is the 1st of September and you know what that means? Yes, the we're half way through the hurricane season of 2020...

Now you've seen this, you'll never hear the phrase 'half way there' again and not, in your head (or aloud), say 'whooaaa... lemon on a pear'. Trust me. Heeheeheee... you are welcome. :-)

Toodle pip!

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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