Thursday, September 03, 2020

Hurricane Nana: September 2, Update A

It was a terribly busy sort of day and it's not even a Thursday! 

Hurricane Nana is at 17N, 87.5W, heading W at 16mph and is scheduled to make landfall in Belize tonight...

The track has shifted a little to the south as she stayed on the southern edge of the cone. That will continue and I think landfall will be very close to the southern edge of Belize/Guatemala area. 

Winds are 75mph, central pressure is 994mb, so she's only just a cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). The vorticity (circulation) is quite robust in the lower half of the troposphere and is actually centered on Honduras as you can see from the mid-level vorticity map here: 

There isn't any upper level vorticity immediately overhead but there is some over the Caribbean, not too far off, which suggests a very weak structure - more of a Tropical Storm than hurricane. 

As expected, Honduras got a little soaked today. Overall, I agree with the NHC that she'll weaken quite quickly once she gets onto land - we can already begin to see that in the satellite imagery. 

That's all for today. Time for a nice nap... 

Toodle pip!


Twitter: jyovianstorm

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 

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