Thursday, September 10, 2020

Tropical Storm Paulette, Tropical Storm Rene, two Atlantic Blobettes, and one Atlantic Blob: September 9, Update A

I suppose the one thing we can say about 2020 is that it hasn't been dull. Snow in Colorado and massive fires in my general neck of the woods... not literal woods! and, fortunately for me, not literally where I am - we've just had mildly yellow skies but up north a bit, did you see the red skies around midday today in the San Fransisco Bay area?!?

(Image credit: Getty via TMZ)


Mother Nature is having a field day (year)! And over yonder in the Atlantic today, someone got the full paintbox out and created something that Jackson Pollock may have done in his early, lesser-known years... 

The bright side to this map is that there isn't much room for anything else in the Atlantic! Did you spot the orange blob trying to create a name for itself before it's even left Africa - a little over-achiever. ;-) 

Tropical Storm Paulette

She's currently at 20.9N, 48.1W, heading WNW at 10mph. So, generally staying on a westward track, which I agree she'll continue to do tomorrow... beyond that, I'll have to go with the NHC's track. So, dear pals on Bermuda... get the dark & stormy's ready! 

Paulette is still a mid-sized Tropical Storm with winds of 60mph, central pressure 996mb (TS range: 39-73mph). Today, I agree with the Tropical Storm status - there is good circulation (vorticity) in the lower half of the troposphere but nothing in the upper levels. She's sorted herself out as far as that convection goes and looks like a proper storm now: 

There is still some wind shear as you can see from the clouds that are streaming off to the northeast, but it looks like she's definitely moving into an area of stronger wind shear which we can see from the wind shear map because the pink lines are closer together in front of her: 

It's tricky to say how strong she'll be after that interaction with the wind shear, but the NHC think she will be just fine and strengthen after getting through. 

Tropical Storm Rene

Monsieur Rene is at 18N, 34W, heading WNW at 13mph. He's the red convective blob to the southeast of Paulette in the satellite image of the Atlantic above.

He's still officially barely a Tropical Storm with winds of 40mph, central pressure 1003mb. I still think this is an underestimation because there is good circulation throughout the lower half of the troposphere. He also has a bunch of convection as you can see in the image of the Atlantic. 

Atlantic Blobettes and Blob

May as well lump them all together because who knows which will emerge first. 

Starting with the orange blob that's just about coming out of Africa and has a 40% chance of developing. There was some convection, which we can also see in that top Atlantic satellite image. There is limited data that far to the east, but there is some circulation (vorticity) in the very lowest level of the troposphere, so it is possible that this will be the next storm. Here's a cool Infrared (black and white) satellite image that covers Africa, which shows what the 40% blobette looks like:

Next... the yellow blob that's closest to the US east coast, which has a 20% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. It's currently around 32N, 75.5W, heading NW at 10-15mph. It'll move over the North Carolina coast sometime tomorrow - so expect rain if you live along the coast (or are on vacation there... you asked for no storms, you didn't say anything about rain... ;-)).

And finally, the yellow blob near the Bahamas - that has a 0% chance of development, so I really think someone was just enjoying their art class. I'm not going to bother. :-)

Righto! I think we'll just call today a day and see what shiny new things tomorrow brings. 

Toodle pip!


Twitter: jyovianstorm

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 

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