Gulf of Mexico blobette and the last word on TS Chris: June 22, Update A

It’s Friday evening and I’m hanging out with some friends (they are now talking about ‘our’ colours… hey, I’m a glamorous scientist, I have to know my colours! J). I’m having a glass of wine (ok, this might be my second or third). This seems like a good time to start writing. ;-)

Tropical Storm Chris

He took a rapid nose-dive from being a ‘hurricane’ (haha, still laughing at that one) to being non-existent… about 24 hours I think. Anyway, the NHC have stopped saying anything about him, and I will happily do so as well. I have to say though that I am very disappointed in TS Chris. I know so many Chris’s in person that I was all set to make fun of…er I mean to compliment… oh well. I can wait for six years (which will be the next time we see a storm named Chris).

(Now the conversation has turned to people dressed as princesses running in a marathon. It’s not my fault… I’m just writing).

Gulf of Mexico Blobette

Ok, so this one might be a little more of a problem for some in the Gulf region. During the day the circulation improved a lot for this blobette. It is still very close to the Yucatan peninsula so it is interacting with land which is preventing it from fully developing at the moment, however I see circulation in all levels of the troposphere now. If this persists once it has left the influence of land and moved into the Gulf, I think that this will be a hurricane (cat 1) – maybe as early as tomorrow. There are two more atmospheric factors that will allow this blobette to develop are that the wind shear is not very strong in the Gulf, and it is weakening, and there is plenty of moisture in the surrounding atmosphere.

This blobette has a lot of thunderstorms and rain because it is also partly over the very warm waters of the Yucatan Strait, where water temperatures are 28-29 deg C, with waters as warm as 26.5 deg C in the upper 100-125m. <Science Alert> This deep warm water is important for a storm to intensify because as it churns up the surface water, the water that replaces it is still warm, so the storm continues to have yummy warm water to feed it and put moisture into the atmosphere. <End Science Alert> So two oceanic factor that will allow the storm to develop are the warm 28-30 deg C waters of the Gulf of Mexico, and that these warm waters are very deep because the blobette is right over the Loop Current. <Science Alert> (Oooh… two science alerts in one entry! The excitement is unbearable! ;-)). The Loop Current is part of an ocean current system that flows from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Strait, and then out of the Gulf of Mexico through the Straits of Florida, and up the east coast of the US. How far it extends into the Gulf of Mexico varies from year to year and month to month. At the moment, it’s northernmost extent looks like it is around the same latitude as Tampa Bay (in Florida). As this current flows around Florida, it changes name to become the Florida Current. Then as it flows up the east coast, it changes name again and is known as the Gulf Stream. It leaves the US east coast around North Carolina and flows across the north Atlantic to the UK. This current system is well known because it has the deepest warm waters, and is very fast flowing. The deep warm waters mean that tropical storms that pass over any part of this current system have a jolly good chance of becoming stronger. <end Science Alert>

The track this blobette will take is a little tricky to see at the moment. There is a bit of high pressure to the north, which means that it will move slowly as it crosses the Gulf. This isn’t very groovy because in turn, that means that it has time to get stronger. But because it is slow moving, it also makes it difficult to figure out where the blobette will go. Depending on how fast it moves over the next 2-3 days, I estimate landfall to be next Thurs/Fri, but it could be anywhere from Texas to Florida. Hopefully I’ll have a better idea tomorrow, but it needs to moves away from the Yucatan. Everyone in the Gulf should keep an eye on it.

That’s it for today. Hey, it’s Saturday tomorrow. You know what that means? Yes, I can write more than one update…. Lucky you! ;-)

(My friends are now talking about ‘goo’. Apparently this is something you eat while you are out running. Not just running to catch the bus, but running marathons and things. I’m not sure I’d want to eat goo under any circumstances, but luckily I’m pretty certain I won’t be running any marathons so the pressure is off for now. Goodness me, the things one learns!).

Ciao,
J.

p.s. oh, it’s called ‘Gu’ not ‘goo’… hmm, doesn’t sound any more palatable though.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Chris and Gulf of Mexico Blobette: June 21, Update A

Sorry for the radio silence yesterday. I was traveling back to Florida from California and didn’t think anyone wanted to read the twaddle I’d probably write when I got home at 3am. Apparently things go a bit wonky when I try and sneak away. I still can’t believe they think Chris is a Tropical Storm! You know all that glitters is not gold (first known use circa 12^th century, first known use pertaining to Tropical Storms circa June 21, 2012). A phrase that applies more commonly to pyrite which is appropriately known as <ahem> fool’s gold, and now methinks it could be applied to a fool’s hurricane (you heard it here first! ;-) ). But before I get into my ‘rant-o-the-day’…

Tropical Storm Chris

He is currently at 42.4N, 42.9W, moving NNE at 14mph. His central pressure is estimated to be 990mb, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 70mph (TS range: 39-73mph), which supposedly makes him almost a hurricane. Water temperatures are even cooler and are now around 19 - 20 deg C (66 – 68 deg F). There is some circulation (vorticity) in the very very lowest level of the troposphere. There is also some vorticity higher up, but it is all connected to that extratropical low pressure area. There are NO (that’s a big ZERO) thunderstorms in this system, with very little rain. Don’t you find that remarkable for something that’s almost as strong as a hurricane? (shhh… don’t tell anyone, but that’s because it is not tropical… shhh).

<start rant-o-the-day>

Earlier today they had upgraded him to a Hurricane… oooh, aaah, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Huh. I think not. He hardly had any convection to speak of. Next thing you know, there’ll be hurricanes developing in the Great Lakes! Wouldn’t that be funny?

So… All that glitters is not gold or Fool’s Hurricane:

Here is a visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Chris as he looks now:

You can see the spiral bands (clouds only, not much rain) and what looks like it could be an eye. For comparison, I’ve also attached a satellite image of the “Hurroncane” (courtesy of NOAA) that developed in 1996 over… <drumroll please>… Lake Huron!

Many thanks to my second Cool Chris Contributor of the series, Chris M., for sending me info on the Hurroncane! From these images, they both look like tropical storms, don’t they? The Hurroncane even had a low pressure of 993mb, tropical storm force winds, and enough rain to cause some flooding. Everything about this Hurroncane and its development (other than the location) was similar to today’s ‘Tropical Storm Chris’ and yet <gasp> it wasn’t a named hurricane! Why? Because it wasn’t a hurricane (from the NHC page today: “Tropical Cyclone: A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.”).These storms didn’t originate over tropical or subtropical waters. The convection in both these storms is very shallow... even the NHC acknowledge that Chris is shallow (no point hiding it Chris, I know it’s all about the looks, hair, make-up, clothes and accessories dahling ;-)). If you want the gory details on the Hurroncane, they are at the bottom of this page: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/stories/dtxcane.php.

‘Tis too late now to change this, but this storm shouldn’t be named and it shouldn’t be in the archives! What an imposter! <end rant-o-the-day>

That’s all on T.S. Chris for now (oh, other than a quick clarification to my last update: strictly speaking, the Tropics are between 23.5 N and 23.5 S, and the subtropics are between 30N and 30S. J I’ll get into that some other time. However I may (may) complain less about Tropical Storms that develop between 30 N and 30 S).

Gulf of Mexico Blobette

Hmm… at the moment it is a little tricky to figure out whether this will develop into a Tropical Storm or just remain in a blobette as it moves northwardish across the Gulf over the next few days. (If you are just joining me, Blobettes are a mass of clouds and thunderstorms that may develop into something with a name. Usually a she-name. Blobs are the same but develop into he-name storms. Usually.)

The NHC have given this a 70% chance of developing into a named tropical storm over the next 48 hours. This is a very possible scenario. There is a little bit of circulation in the lower half of the troposphere. Nothing that looks like a tropical system yet, just an area of low pressure, but I wouldn’t be too surprised to see it develop further. It is producing a lot of rain because the water temperature is 27-28 deg C, with water warmer than 26.5 deg C in the upper 100m. I will have a proper look tomorrow, but I can tell you now that the computer models are all over the place – some have it developing, others not. Some have it going into Texas, others into Louisiana, and yet others into Florida. We all agree that the next name would be Debby. J

That’s it for now. More tomorrow! Let me know if you have any questions. If ‘42’ doesn’t work, ’ll make up something as an answer for ya. ;-)

Tally ho!

J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Chris: June 19, Update A

Sigh. In ye olde golden days of yore, they wouldn’t have named this one. I can see why they called this a Tropical Storm, but I am not convinced it actually is one, so I personally wouldn’t give it a name. I’ve been watching this system for the past few days, and although it has some circulation (not particularly tropical in nature), there is very little rain in this system. The NHC named it Chris in their 5pm advisory today. He ‘formed’ at 39.3N, 57.7W, and is moving East at 8mph. Estimated minimum pressure is 1005mb, with estimated winds at 45mph (TS range: 39-73mph).

Here are my top ten reasons why this one doesn’t really qualify:

1. The last time I looked, the tropics were between 30N and 30S. The NHS officially says that: “THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.” At almost 40 deg N? In the middle of the Atlantic?

2. The water temperature is 22-23 deg C… that is 71-74 deg F. Does that sound like balmy, warm tropical water temperatures to you? (no need to answer if you are from Canada) Tropical Storms need 26 deg C or warmer to develop. They are ‘Tropical’. Look it up in the dictionary. 71-74 deg C is the sort of water I’d get into to cool off after sitting in a boiling jaccuzzi for half an hour as a form of hot water/cold water/but-its-good-for-you-so-quit-complaining sort of thing.

3. There is no warm water underneath. It just gets colder. Even the fish probably wear wet suits.

4. If this was a Tropical Storm, the vorticity (circulation) signal I see in this system would be the same as if it were a Cat 3 or 4. This storm is not that strong... there are other things going on afoot (and aloft) – see comment 5 below.

5. The NHC say this will be absorbed by a larger extratropical low pressure area in 3-4 days… see comment 4 above. It already is part of that system.

6. Relative to the storm, the vertical wind shear is strong in this area.

7. We do have rotating storms that develop in the extratropics. We normally just call them storms or low pressure systems. They can have strong winds. Some of them even have buckets of rain. Amongst other places, they like to visit Scotland quite frequently. Along with the other tens of people who like to visit Scotland quite frequently.

8. See point 9.

9. See point 8.

10. Ok, yeah, I ran out of things to rant about.

Definitely not convinced about TS Chris. Harrumph.

Speaking of Chris, my friend Chris K. tweeted from a conference today about viruses in the ocean (how do you like that for a segueway? ;-))… apparently there are “10 million viruses per drop of seawater. So when swim you swallow more viruses than people in the US”. (the good kind of viruses of course). And on that delicious note, time for something to drink.

That’s it for now,

J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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June 1: Start of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

What!?! It’s the start of the hurricane season? Really? How did that happen? Why didn’t anyone tell me! Why didn’t anyone tell Mother Nature?

Well… a grand Welcome to the official start of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I won’t play the ‘guess how many storms we’ll have this season’ game, but I will tell you that I’m positively convinced, with 100% certainty, that there will be at least two named Tropical Storms. ;-)

It is too soon to say how active this season will be (I know a few people are a tad concerned) and having two pre-June storms isn’t a good indicator at all. The reason we have an official ‘hurricane season’ from June 1 to November 30 is because that’s when we get about 97% of the storms, with around 78% occurring during the peak season from August-October (from Landsea’s 1993 paper). Here is a figure I made a few years ago that showed the track of all the storms from 1851 to 2005 (graph credit: ME):

You  can see there are quite a few in May. You can also clearly see that in the early and later parts of the season the storms develop in the western Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean region, and during the peak months they develop in the eastern Atlantic. So to have two storms in May that formed in the western Atlantic just means that they are in the elite 3% (the other 97% may be protesting somewhere ... ;-)). Anyway, I like these dinky little storms. They bring much needed rain and they don’t cause too much damage (generally speaking). They are, indeed, agathokakological (hee hee… June 1… already dusting off the fun words – are you all ready? ;-)).

Now on with my amazingly fabulous opening remarks. J Here are a few background notes so you know what you are getting into (and remember, you can always watch reality TV if you prefer):

1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and tropical storms (and whatever else pops into my head that may, with some imagination, fit those three words). It is just what I think.

2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned.

3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometime four. If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to write, let me know and I'll send out updates as frequently as you like.

4. I hope you like Monty Python, Eddie Izzard, the IT Crowd. And other funny stuff.

5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please do not hesitate to ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you. Over the years (and even over the past couple of weeks), I've talked about a lot of things already, but I can cut and paste from previous entries as well as the next person so if I say something or use some "scientific jargon" (ooh ahh, how thrilling), please please ask me about it.

6. I often write tongue-in-cheek, which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm, irony, and puns are all acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended - like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece of chocolate or a drink instead.

7. I'm sure every cloud in the Atlantic is exciting to some but, unless I'm bored, I'll usually write about those that I think have a chance of developing.

8. If you are reading this via email, are sick of me cluttering up your in-boxes, and would prefer to get it via the web go here... http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com (and send me an email telling me to remove you).

9. I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because they have the most up-to-date information!!

10. I admit it. I am a twit. I am sometimes on twitter (@jyovianstorm). (I’m also sometimes on tumblr… but that’s mostly pretty pictures of the UK and stuff, so if you want to day-dream, find me there.)

Before I run off (to see an opera this evening J) – Part 1: Being British and all, I have to congratulate Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth II, for reaching her Diamond Jubilee. Only 4 more years I think, and she’ll be the longest reigning British monarch (Queen Victoria currently holds that title). I shall have a Gin and Tonic to celebrate.

Before I run off (to see an opera this evening J) – Part 2: I have to tell you what I did today! The West Central Florida American Meteorological Society Chapter arranged a wonderful field trip… I went to see the hurricane hunter planes at NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center in Tampa. Thanks much to the folks at NOAA’s AOC for their time and tour. It was great and I’ll be mentioning things from this visit at random moments during the season.

That’s all I have for the opening speech… and we’re off to the races! (which, coincidentally, is how The Queen is beginning her Jubilee celebrations this weekend).

Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Extratropical Storm Beryl: May 30, Update A

Goodness me… what a note-worthy sort of day today turned out to be!

After yesterday’s post, I dreamt I had made “Bring Back Beryl” t-shirts and started a campaign to get the satellite images back on-line (yes, I have exceedingly boring dreams), but apparently my ‘mild rant’ yesterday did the trick because when I woke up this morning the GOES Floater imagery for Beryl was back on the website after a two day hiatus!! Of course it could be a remarkable coincidence, but it’s much more fun pretending that ‘a Jedi Master I am’, with powerful mind-influencing abilities (“these are not the droids you’re looking for” etc). ;-) (drat… if only I’d had a mild rant about something really useful like the numbers of the winning lottery ticket). Anyway, THANK YOU to whoever/everyone responsible for bringing the floater imagery back on-line. It was lovely to see Beryl this morning. J

The second amazing thing today was that I (almost) completely agreed with the NHC on their analysis of Tropical Depression/Extratropical Storm Beryl (umm… other than I still use the old-fashioned ‘extratropical’ instead of the new-fangled ‘post-tropical’ wording). I think this might be the first time I have agreed with (almost) every word I read from the NHC! In my <ahem> humble <ahem> ;-) opinion, they had the correct wind speeds posted throughout the day (because we have actual observations from buoys at sea as well as stations on land), they had a good handle on the location and direction of the storm, and they did not bump her up to a Tropical Storm again once she left the coast (at North Carolina) but realized she was moving faster than they expected yesterday so she didn’t have time to get stronger and went straight from Tropical Depression to Extratropical (post-tropical) Storm.

Around the middle of the day, when the storm ‘center’ was about 5-10 miles from Wilmington, North Carolina, I got an email from a fabulous on-the-ground reporter. Jennifer said: “It’s wet, wet, and more wet in Wilmington. It’s been raining here since last night and continues to be gray and, well, wet. Not terribly breeze, which is good because my gladiola’s were been beat up over the weekend with all of the wind.” A lovely rainy day... what more could one ask for? Sorry to hear about the damage your gladiola’s sustained. I hope they make a speedy recovery.

The NHC have stopped posting on Beryl, and so shall I. If we have any more, the next one will be Chris. As that is unlikely in the next 48 hours, I will be back for the official start of the season.

That’s all for now folks!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Beryl: May 29, Update A

At the moment Tropical Depression Beryl  is still over Georgia (just about), centered at 32.2N, 81.3W, moving ENE at 10mph. The estimated central pressure is 1004mb, with a sustained wind of 30mph. Most of the area of the storm has winds in the 12-15mph range, but there are some observations off-shore and also in North Carolina with winds in the 23-30mph range. She still has small pockets of rain, but really not much at all. There is dry air in the system, and neither the satellite imagery nor the radar show “heavy rain” anymore. She still has some circulation in the very lowest levels of the troposphere, but that is weaker now than it was this morning. The NHC center of cone shows that she will leave the US coast from South Carolina tomorrow (Weds) morning and become a Tropical Storm by tomorrow afternoon. I suppose this is possible because she will be close to the Gulf Stream again, but it depends on how fast she is moving and I think she will still be quite weak.

As there is not too much more to say about Beryl for now, I think I will have a little rant (laced with large dollops of sarcasm). <begin mild rant> I would like to know who decided to make the fabulous <ahem> improvements <ahem> to the satellite imagery/NHC website in the off-season?!? In the past, the satellite imagery page was great (ok, maybe not great, but definitely functional) because it had the larger satellite GOES-East images (which shows the same fixed part of the planet e.g. North Atlantic) as well as the more focused GOES Floater Imagery (which would show a close up of a storm if there was one out there). Now, it takes about 3 or 4 more clicks of buttons to get to the same close-up images because “they” have moved the GOES Floater Imagery to a ‘new’ page (NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service page). This new page is terrible for a number of reasons. I won’t even bother going into most of them right now, but at the moment my main complaint is that they removed anything to do with Beryl yesterday which means that we can no longer see a close up of the storm! You aren’t missing much because she’s not really much to look at, but I’m a weather junky and I like watching washing machines spin … I WANT to see what she’s doing and I can’t! In ye olde golden days of yore (e.g. last year) they would keep the floater imagery up until the NHC said they were done with a system. So either this means that one part of NOAA (the satellite folks) don’t agree with another part of NOAA (the NHC) because they have ‘No Storms’ on their website compared to the NHC’s ‘Tropical Depression’, or the Satellite and ‘Information Service’ page are not doing too well on this whole ‘Information Service’ concept! <end mild rant>

And on that note…  time to say tally ho for today!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Depression Beryl: May 28, Update A

I’d have to say that so far, Beryl has been a well-behaved little storm. She made landfall last night and as of 11 am this morning, as expected, the NHC downgraded her to a Tropical Depression. Her winds are now 30 mph, central pressure is estimated to be 1003mb. She is still bringing some much needed rain to Florida and Georgia. I expect her to continue to decrease in intensity. She is currently centered at 30.8N, 83.1W, heading NNW at a stately 5mph, and is about 10 miles east of Valdosta, GA.

The NHC forecast track shows her turning North and then Northeast tonight, heading towards the Carolinas and then back out into the Atlantic on Weds afternoon, and turning into a Tropical Storm again on Thursday afternoon. One possible scenario that I think might happen is that she will continue inland for a bit longer (or slow down even more whilst over land) and weaken more than they currently expect. If that’s the case, then I’m not sure she will become a Tropical Storm again, although at the moment her circulation is still pretty strong in the lower part of the troposphere.

Right, for now all is good so I’m off to find me some wine (honestly, it’s not my fault… it’s for a good cause… someone’s <something-with-a-zero>^th birthday and 5-year-cancer-free party – congratulations K.M.!). J

Happy Memorial Day!
Toodle Pip,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Beryl: May 27, Update B

Beryl is on the verge of making landfall in the Jacksonville area and part of her rather large eye is already creeping over land. The center is officially at 30.2N, 81.1W and she continues to move generally westward at 7mph so she will be completely inland by the time we wake up from our beauty sleep tomorrow.  They sent in another plane this evening and, as I thought, it found increased wind speeds so they increased her winds to 70mph (central pressure 993mb), which makes her a very strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). However she is already looking weaker than she did this afternoon and she is already about to make landfall so she won’t be a hurricane (phew!).

Although there is not a lot of convection in Beryl, her outer rain bands have already brought a few dollops (technical term ;-)) of rain across Florida, Georgia and have reached as far north as Savannah. I’d like to thank Beryl for doing such a lovely job cleaning the outside of my car. Here is a satellite picture showing where and what sort of convection she has:

The areas in white are light clouds, the areas in blue are just thick clouds but no rain, the yellow is just rain, no thunderstorms. From John, who is in Folkston, in Georgia, just NW of Jacksonville: “light rain, light breeze, some sun at 7:55 PM”.

That’s all for today folks.
Stay safe!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Subtropical Storm Beryl: May 27, Update A

Subtropical Storm Beryl (actually Tropical Storm Beryl – I expect that change in the next advisory) is going to make land-fall today. She’s just off the north Florida/south Georgia coast, at around 30.1N, 79.6W. She is moving westward at 10mph. They sent a plane into the system this morning, and found that she was stronger than they expected, so they have increased her winds to 60mph (central pressure 998mb), which now makes her a mid-strength Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). I am not at all surprised by this increase. I still don’t think she will get to hurricane strength because although there is a bit of room for her to get stronger, she is already interacting with land which will keep her in check.  She is now moving over the Gulf Stream so her convection has increased a lot since yesterday as you can see in this visible satellite image:

If you are in northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, you can expect a breezy day and maybe some rain later (perfect late-May weather if you lived in the UK ;-)). If you are in other parts of Florida (like here in St. Petersburg), Georgia and the Carolinas you can expect some intermittent clouds and possible rain also because of Beryl – she’s like a spider… weak body but long arms! J

The NHC had a good handle on the track and have her forecast center of cone track going into the general Jacksonville area.  You can now see the center of Beryl on the Jacksonville radar: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JAX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes. However it looks like the bulk of the winds and rain will be over Georgia.

Northeastern Florida and Georgia have already had a 2ft storm surge (on a side note, I bet the surfers have had a great time over the past few days!). To look at the storm surge I use NOAA’s National Ocean Service website, Tides Online, which is an excellent site (I really hope they don’t plan to make it ‘better’ – I’ll complain properly about a few changes that have been made to other sites during the off season at some point… Why do people do that? Sigh.): http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html. Click on the state you are interested in, and then the location within that state. For example, I clicked on Florida and then on Mayport:

The top graph shows the water level. In this graph, the red line is the actual observed sea level, the blue line is what the predicted water level would be because of the tides, and the green line is the difference between the two. The height of the green line gives you the storm surge level.  The graph below that is wind speed (still increasing at Mayport at this time) and direction. Below that is air pressure (which you can see is still dropping), and below that is air and sea surface temperature.

Finally for now, I just got my first on-the-ground report for this season! Yay! John is in Folkston, Ga, 50 miles NW of Jax. He says: “It's windy, about 30 mph, mostly cloudy.  No rain and some sun.  We can see the clouds moving counter clock wise.  More later with any change.” Thank you John! J

And as he said… more later!

Ciao for now,

J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Subtropical Storm Beryl: May 26, Update A

Must be quick for now… I have a ‘J.S. marries J. S.’ wedding to attend! J

Here’s the scoop on Subtropical Storm Beryl. She has slowed down to a halt, which was expected given that she is surrounded by high pressure and is currently hanging out at 31.6N, 76.3W.  Officially the winds are still 45mph and central pressure is 1001mb, but they are sending in a plane to check on this. The wind shear is very weak now. Her circulation in the lower half of the troposphere* (*See Science Alert below) continues to strengthen, so I think she may be a bit stronger. However, she has very little convection (rain and clouds) so I can see why they kept her at 45 mph. There are two reasons for this the lack of rain: (1) from the ocean perspective, she is over cold water with nothing warm to get much moisture from; and, (2) from the atmospheric perspective, she is pulling in dry air which is coming from the south and west.

Her track is a little tricky still because she has stalled. The NHC did move it slightly north since my last update, but have shifted it back towards Jacksonville, FL. I will go with this for now, but I would still get ready for a breezy day in NE Florida and Georgia tomorrow and Monday! Her intensity is the part I’m not sure I agree with at the moment. To get to land she still has to cross the Gulf Stream. Unless she picks up speed and zooms across it, the chances are she will get a bit stronger. The NHC continue to forecast a peak of 50mph winds, which means she’ll be a very weak Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph) at landfall. This is fine with me… so long as they don’t give us any of that ‘rapid intensification just before landfall what a surprise’ stuff. Given that she doesn’t have much moisture today, even if she gets stronger, I no longer think she’ll get to hurricane strength.

What a topsy turvy sort of start to the season! I haven’t even said ‘ello properly and I’m already launching into jargon… hopefully I haven’t lost everyone already. So, the first <Science Alert> of 2012! <Science Alert> For those who need a refresher, don’t know, or just want a chuckle… I keep mentioning “troposphere”. This is the lowest section of the earth’s atmosphere. It extends up from the surface to about 8-10km at the poles, and to about 16km at the equator. In this section, the higher you go, the colder the air temperature gets. The next section of the atmosphere above the troposphere is called the “stratosphere”, not to be confused with “The Stratosphere Hotel and Casino” in Las Vegas! Although like any casino in Vegas, the higher you get, the warmer it gets! J (unless you are very rich… and if, by chance, you are very rich and reading this, I have a great project you can sponsor…). Anyway, back to earth… you may have heard of the stratosphere as the home of the ‘ozone hole’ (and ozone layer of course). The stratosphere extends to about 50km above the surface of the earth. The boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere is called the tropopause. Most of our clouds are in the troposphere. However, with strong, fully fledged hurricanes and thunderstorms, the clouds can sometimes cross the tropopause and extend up into the stratosphere. Above the stratosphere is the mesosphere, where the temperature again gets colder the higher up you go. When I refer to the lower half of the troposphere, I am looking at from the surface to around 5-6km height. <End of Science Alert>

Ok… must go and party! I’ll still be watching out for Beryl to make her next move!

Cheers,

J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Subtropical Storm Beryl: May 25, Update A

For fans of Douglas Adams… Happy Towel Day! (http://towelday.org/) (although by the time I finish writing this, it will be the day after).

Today I (more-or-less) agree with the NHC on their assessment and naming of Subtropical Storm Beryl! J (or that could be a couple of glasses of wine talking I suppose… it is a Friday evening after all ;-)).

Officially Beryl is currently at 32.5N, 74.8W, moving northwards at about 9mph (I’m not sure I agree with this location or direction – see later). Her central pressure is estimated to be 1001mb, with winds of 45mph (Tropical Storm range: 39-73mph). The circulation in the lower half of the troposphere has improved quite a lot since yesterday and the wind shear is dying down. There is also some circulation in the upper half of the troposphere which is a bit troublesome at the moment because it means that she has room to grow (even to a hurricane, although the official forecast has her maximum winds peaking at 50mph by Saturday evening and on Sunday, which is a weak Tropical Storm). However, she is now over cooler waters, with sea surface temperatures of 25 deg C, and no deep warm water underneath and there is still some dry air to the south and west, so there are some inhibiting factors. It looks like South Carolina is already getting some of the ‘outer bands’… i.e. a bit of cloudy (no rain) weather. As she approaches the US Coast, she will cross the Gulf Stream again and she will pick up some moisture then (time to dust off your raincoats and wellie boots!).

The NHC wrote: “FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST HAS COALESCED INTO A TIGHT...WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  AROUND 2200 UTC...THE BUOY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ALONG WITH PEAK 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 37 KNOTS...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE AROUND 1001 MB.” Being a sciency sort of geek, I thought I’d have a look at the data myself so I went to the National Data Buoy Center website (http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/), one of my usual source for buoy data. At around 2200UTC, the buoy (located at around 32N, 75W) does, indeed, show a drop in pressure… to 29.65 inches! I suppose it would be too user-friendly to have them displayed in the same units (mb). Why make things easy, huh? (mutter mutter, mumble, grumble…) I did the conversion and it is 1004mb. However, the winds peaked at 34 knots, not 37 knots… therefore I think the official windspeed is a teensy-weensy bit of an over-estimate:

I know this seems like a really small amount, but the difference is that 34 knots is 39.1 mph, and 37 knots is 42.5 mph… and to name a Tropical (or Subtropical) Storm you need wind speeds of 39mph or more, but 39.1mph is too close to the border and could be within the margin of error of the instrument, whereas 42.5 mph is a solid ‘above 39’ sort of number (given it was towel day, it’s too bad they didn’t pick something that converted exactly to 42.0! ;-)). However, despite this little umm…’discrepancy’, I still agree with naming Beryl because this is just one location, and looking at the circulation, even now she looks stronger than a 45mph system.

The forecast track takes her in a west-southwest direction. Although unusual, this is possible. I think she has already started on a westward trajectory actually, and I would place her at around 32.4N, 75.4W.  She may slow down a bit tomorrow, because there is high pressure all around her (if you have forgotten the importance of this, not to worry, I’ll explain this later – maybe tomorrow, after I’ve had a nap).  The official center of cone forecast track takes her into Jacksonville on Sunday evening, but as you can see here, the ‘cone’ of uncertainty is not quite a cone:

I think it is quite possible that landfall will be north of that, in Georgia or South Carolina. The reason why it is so ‘circular’ is because of the surrounding pressure fields (high) which makes it a little trickier to forecast.

The things to watch for tomorrow are how far west she goes before (if) she slows, and where she is relative to the Gulf Stream and to land and the circulation in the upper troposphere (I’ll explain that over the weekend too). That will at least give us an indication of her intensity. She could get interesting.

Night night for now!

J.

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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Atlantic Blobette: May 24, Update A

So… we have a blobette off south-eastern Florida and over the Bahamas. I watched her as she came up from the Caribbean and crossed Cuba today. The NHC currently give her a 60% chance of being a fully-fledged tropical storm on Saturday, but I’m not sure yet. It is certainly possible because the circulation in the lower half of the troposphere was quite good earlier today and she is in the Gulf Stream region, so she has plenty of warm water to munch on. However, in the past few hours it looks like the circulation has weakened a bit, for a couple of reasons. First, she is in an area of very high wind shear from the southwest. You can see this if you look at the satellite image… the clouds are all to the northeast of the ‘center’:

And her other problem is dry air, which is to her west and south and is also being blown into the system. If it wasn’t for these pesky little problems, I’d say she would definitely be a storm. At the moment it looks like the wind shear might hang around, so we might get away without seeing Beryl (the next name) for a bit longer.

I was kinda wondering if I’d be back before the official start of the season… a couple of weeks ago there were signs in the experimental long-range computer models that there would be some sort of low pressure just off south-eastern Florida today (although I don’t remember seeing any signs of Alberto in there, so he just snuck in as far as I can tell ;-)). Of course I was a teensy-weensy bit skeptical (yes, moi! ;-)), but ta-da, here we are. I think it’s very groovy that models are being developed that can forecast these sorts of blobs and blobettes up to 10 days ahead of time (even if they are still a bit blurry around the edges)! J I know they were doing well a couple of years ago and I will be curious to see how they do this season.

As The Terminator said, “I’ll be back” (tomorrow). And one of these days I’ll get to the official welcome message… I might have to sneak it in before June 1 if these early storm shenanigans carry on though!  

Ciao,

J.

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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Tropical Storm Alberto: May 21, Update A

Three cups of tea and two coffees later (<gasp> coffee!! <gasp>) and I’m now wide-awake and ready for the season. J I shouldn’t have bothered really because Alberto looks like he’s falling apart as I write. His center is now around 30.7N, 77.3W, central pressure of 1006mb, winds of 40mph.  He is moving ENE at 8 mph. Although there is still good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, as expected the wind shear and dry air took their toll so there are very few clouds and they are mostly to the northeast of the center. I agree with the NHC’s forecast track which will take him on a northeastward path and keep him away from land. They have him dissipating in a couple of days but I think he is already just a Tropical Depression. Unless he does something silly (unlikely), this is my last entry on Alberto. May they all be like this! J  

Hmm… maybe there’s time for a short nap before June 1… anyone got anything really boring to read? Maybe ‘The Authorized Autobiography of a Snail’ or the ‘Dummies Guide to Watching Grass Grow’? No? Right… a glass of wine it is then. ;-)

I’ll be back for the ‘official’ start with a proper welcome message and hopefully NOT before!!

Toodle Pip,

J.

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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Tropical Storm Alberto: May 20, Update A

Too early. Stop. Not awake yet. Stop. Still twelve days to the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. Stop. Aaaargh. Stop.

I see that yesterday afternoon the National Hurricane Center named our first Tropical Storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season (which officially begins on June 1). Quite frankly, I think it’s just impolite of Alberto to be making so much noise this early in the season, and on a weekend no-less! You’d never catch me vacuuming at 7am on a Sunday… my neighbours will tell you that I wait until at least 8am. ;-)

Tropical Storm Alberto is the first real pre-season Tropical Storm in the Atlantic since Tropical Storm Ana in 2003 (all the others have been Subtropical Storms). But he’s a cute little baby storm. J He has been hanging around off the S. Carolina/Georgia coast since yesterday and is officially at 30.5N, 80.1W. He is crawling southward(ish) at 5 mph and is now actually off the Florida coast. He has decent circulation in the lower part of the troposphere (I’ll explain this mumbo-jumbo jargon later, when I’ve woken up properly) but the convection is not very strong. At the moment his winds are officially 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1007mb, so he is barely a Tropical Storm. Although he is close to the Gulf Stream, which has a lot of deep warm water, there is relatively strong wind shear in the atmosphere and a lot of dry air around him so it’s unlikely that he will get much stronger. In this I agree with the NHC.  

The east Pacific had their first Tropical Storm of the season (TS Aletta) last week. Apparently this is the first time in our records that we’ve had Tropical Storms in both the east Pacific and Atlantic before June 1. Maybe we can get them all over and done with by July to make things easy for the new Director of the NHC (Dr. Rick Knabb, starts work on June 4). J

Until tomorrow,
Ciao!
J.

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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November 30: Final Day of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

Welcome to the final entry of my award-breaking blog for this year!! J I might be leaping to conclusion, but as I sit here in subtropical Florida in my sweater, with the fire blazing merrily away, I’m inclined to think that the season is pretty much over. Yes my friends, it is that time of year when you can breathe a sigh of relief and thank your lucky stars (and have a glass or two of wine) that this is the last Hurricane Season message from me until next year. Probably.

(Unless, of course, that blobette with a 20% chance of development that the NHC are watching today does something silly. It has some circulation (but more like a front than a storm), not much convection, and very little conviction. It’s just Mother Nature’s wonderfully capricious sense of humour to have a blobette today, that’s all. ;-))

This year was actually a quieter season compared to last year and, contrary to some reports, I think it was generally an average year. Officially we had 19 tropical named storms, of which 7 became hurricanes and 3 were major hurricanes. As usual, you may have noticed that I didn’t always agree with the NHC (I was trying to be subtle, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it escaped your attention ;-)). According to the blurb: “This level of activity matched NOAA’s predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.” Hmm. Really? Let’s dissect this (because I’m a scientist and that’s what we all do in the movies).

The average season now has around 12-13 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. So we had an average number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. That leaves the number of named storms. We know there were some Micky Mouse storms (hey, I live in Florida, I have been indoctrinated ;-)) – those that would have been cartoon characters if they had a chance. They wouldn’t have been named in ye olde goldene dayse because our satellite data interpretation wasn’t as good. Definitely Tropical Storms Cindy, Franklin and Jose. TS Lee and TS Harvey were also rather questionable and rather short. So that leaves us with 14 storms (including subtropical Storms) that would really be eligible to attend the Queen’s Garden Party (provided they had the right hats). So I’ll go against the grain and say that really, in the grand scheme of things, this wasn’t greatly above average as seasons go. Ho hum.

And that, I think, will be my last scientific commentary for this season. Hurray! J Now it’s fun-time. First, some exciting statistics for this blog (well, it’s exciting to me J). This is my 100^th entry for this season. This is also the conclusion of 5 years of having a proper website blog (which looks very blog-like with all the photos and whatnots), and 6 years of a listserve. During that time, the website has had around 21, 200 hits! That is amazing for something that has, generally, been spread by word-of-mouth. If I include the listserve since the beginning (c. 2005), you, your family, your friends, your friend’s friends, your families friends, your friends families, your family’s family, your cats, dogs, goldfish, ponies and sheep, and all their friends and families have, collectively, read my ramblings over 500,000 times!!! Gulp.

THANK YOU for continuing to read, for telling people, and for entertaining me throughout the season with jokes, comments, and fabulous questions. Also, a BIG Thank You to those of you who were in the paths of assorted storms who sent me your thoughts, comments, photos etc. That really livened up what would otherwise have been a very dull read. Thanks to the NHC for doing a pretty tricky job really, and for being Moriarty to my Sherlock (or possibly vice versa?)...give me a call if you need a hand. ;-) I also need to thank my fantastic technical support team: Doug M. at the CMS/USF (http://www.marine.usf.edu/) in Florida for helping me maintain the listserve, and Chris H. in Texas and Ben A. in California for helping me maintain and upgrade my website blog. By the way, if you want to take a dip in geek-nirvana and are interested in B-movies and other such things, Chris and another friend, Scott, have just re-booted their classic podcasts at http://stomptokyo.tumblr.com/. I also want to thank Andrew T. in North Carolina who contacted me via twitter to invite me to write my first guest blog entry this year for Southern Fried Science (http://www.southernfriedscience.com/). This is a groovy blog by marine science students in North Carolina. Unfortunately I completely goofed on this (sorry sorry!) because it was right around the time of Hurricane Irene and in the midst of an unusually mad travel/work schedule for me (my real job strikes again ;-)). Hopefully, next year? Finally, last but not least, I have to thank those who are in the thick of things – those who are near and dear to me. Thanks for your continued attempts to make me sane... you have a life-long project. Good luck with that. ;-)

Although I usually hibernate from now until June, I do have a couple of marshmallows on the fire… as you know, I’m a twit (JyovianStorm), and will continue to tweet about storms in other basins as well as other things that I find interesting (science, science fiction, literature, and things). AND now for something completely different (Monty Python)… I have a NEW blog! it’s a photo-blog called ‘Just around the next corner’ and can be found at http://jyovianstorm.tumblr.com/. I started this a couple of weeks ago (so I’m still a bit wonky on it) and am currently posting photos of the South West Coast Path walks in Devon, UK. Two new photos appear every day, and there are multiple pages now. Here is one sample:


“One of those rare cloudy days in the UK, just after the UFO took off…”.  

Click on them to see them in high-res. I’ll be posting other photos once I run out of these.    

Well I think that’s it from me for 2011!! So… here’s a big slurpy (and slurry) toast to the end of the Hurricane Season. I wish you all a very happy and safe holiday season, Happy New Year and all that jazz, and I’ll be back for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

Cheers & TOODLE PIP!
J. J

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Extratropical Storm Sean: 11/11/11 Update A

Happy Elevenses Day (11/11/11), Veterans Day (US) and Remembrance Day (Commonwealth Countries)! Hands up if you did something to mark the 11/11/11 11:11:11 second?  (Me too ;-))

This will be my apopemptic entry on Sean (oooh aaah… big word alert – I learned it today so I had to share J). He is officially at 36.7N, 57.7W, heading ENE at a whopping 35mph. This fast forward speed is because he is now fully part of that low pressure front I mentioned yesterday and doesn’t have the circulation of a tropical storm; the vorticity (circulation) is no longer confined to a nice circular area in the lower troposphere. Winds are 40mph (so officially barely Tropical Storm level) and central pressure is estimated to be 1000mb. Not much more to say really.

For those of you taking advantage of a three day weekend to fix things around the house, here's something that I hope will help:



Enjoy! ;-)

Toodles!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Sean: November 10, Update A

I found two things of note today. First, I found a sharp metal shaving in a restaurant. I was there for lunch and it caught my attention after I realized it didn’t have quite the same consistency as the cooked pasta I was chewing. Oops. And second, I found that the NHC and I are in better agreement. Not oops. J

Tropical Storm Sean is currently at 31.5N, 68.2W moving ENE at a nice 13mph. He has remained a mid-to-high Tropical Storm with winds of 65mph and central pressure of 983mb. His convection has improved a bit, but the dry air is still a factor and the wind shear is pretty strong for him so the convection is all to the northeast (satellite IR image):



I think the NHC have dropped the idea of Hurricane Sean for this year – their forecast now keeps him as a Tropical Storm until tomorrow, when he merges with a low pressure front that’s moving eastward off the US (as you can probably tell if you live along the eastern US – it is certainly breezy and cooler in Florida this evening). I’ve heard people say that the windy weather in Florida and the choppy waters are because of the tropical storm… nope…. they are because of this front. You can see this front in the water vapor satellite image as the band of clouds that stretches from the northeast to the southwest and covers Florida:



It is a little tricky for me to see the center of circulation because he is not very well organized and it’s night now, but it looks like it might be slightly to the right of the forecast track, so it might pass a bit closer to Bermuda. It still looks like it’ll be more windy than thunderstorms over the island because the bulk of the heaviest convection is already almost due west of Bermuda.

I’ll be back tomorrow… assuming I didn’t actually swallow any metal - a bit of extra aluminium (note: correct UK spelling ;-)) or whatever it was is probably good for me anyway, right? And alcohol can be used to clean cuts can’t it? Hmm… ;-)

Adieu for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Sean: November 9, Update A

Happy Carl Sagan Day! Ok, so by the time I finish this I know the day will be over and many of you won’t read this until tomorrow, but I was too busy celebrating by watching the last couple of episodes of the excellent series ‘Cosmos’ with some like-minded geeks. Yes, of course there was wine. ;-)

In keeping with the spirit of Dr. Sagan I should warn you that I may, perhaps, exhibit some very subtle signs of science and healthy skepticism in the next few minutes…

Tropical Storm Sean’s vital statistics currently show that he’s at 29.7N, 70.9W moving N at 8mph. The estimated central pressure is 991mb and winds are 65mph, making him a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph).

I can’t believe the NHC think Sean may be a hurricane tomorrow! (did you notice my very subtle skepticism?). Didn’t we already cover this earlier in the season? I would not classify a storm as a hurricane if the upper tropospheric vorticity is actually a low pressure front! The structure is not the same as a tropical storm at all. Goodness me. Here are some reasons why he’s nowhere near being a hurricane:

1. The vorticity (circulation) is strong in the lowest half of the troposphere so it certainly looks like a nice Tropical Storm. However, the vorticity (circulation) from the mid-to-upper troposphere looks more like a low pressure front than a tropical storm… it is spread out over a  large area, from the northern Caribbean to Georgia. A tropical storm would have a confined area of vorticity.  

2. The convection continues to remain weak. Given that the blue areas are clouds with no rain, the light yellow is a light drizzle, and the orange areas are heavy rain with some thunder, does this IR satellite image look like it’s strong enough to be approaching hurricane strength?



He looks remarkably similar to yesterday’s image (which was similar to the day before). At the most, I would continue to place him as a mid-sized Tropical Storm.

3. If we look at the lower level convergence and upper level divergence (remember those from earlier in the season? – if not, send me a note and I’ll find my ‘should-be-award-winning-if-there-was-one-for-this’ fabulous explanation for you ;-)), we see that the lower level convergence is strong enough for a tropical storm, but the upper level divergence is really wishy-washy.

The biggest inhibitor continues to be the dry air. Wind shear dropped a little since yesterday, but it’s still enough so wind shear continues to have a bit of an effect on this storm.

Although I’m not buying the intensity thing, I think the track is generally good. He will pass to the west of Bermuda and shouldn’t  really affect any land too much. At the rate he is going, he’ll be passing Bermuda during the day tomorrow instead of overnight.

Before I go, I thought I’d mention that there was a big non-tropical storm in Alaska today. Chris in Washington DC thought I would be interested in knowing such a thing was happening (yes indeed! Thanks!). This is not a tropical storm of course, but it was big enough to evacuate people and create some NOAA storm quick-look pages, which are normally used during a tropical storm. The reason for the evacuations and the storm pages is because there is some rather large storm surge. Here are the National Ocean Service observations of this from the coastal water level instrument in Nome, Alaska (provided via tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov):



The top plot shows the water level. The blue line in the top figure is the usual predicted water level along the coast, the red line is the observed water level along the coast, and the green line is the difference between the two… i.e. the storm surge. You can see that the water levels along the coast at Nome were 10ft above normal, and the surge was 9ft!! That is HUGE. And that’s just from a ‘normal’ winter storm I think.  The second plot shows the winds, which went up to about 42 knots. The third plot shows the drop in pressure as the storm passed by… down to 970mb! That’s less than some tropical storms!  The last figure shows the air and water temperatures, in deg F… hmm, I see temperatures of 17 deg F, How toasty is that? Practially bikini-wearing weather, right? Ha. So not only was the storm surge high, but the water was cold (just over 32 deg F when the surge was the highest).

That’s it for today. Time for a lovely nap now. More tomorrow though!

Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Sean: November 8, Update A

How does the time go by so quickly, huh? Anyway, very little of it is left today for me to write this so it’ll be quick and very practical and not very funny at all.

The NHC changed Sean to a Subtropical Storm in the early hours of this morning. That would be in keeping with the vorticity (circulation) signals I was seeing, where he looked like a Tropical Storm in the lower half of the troposphere, but had a low pressure front signal in the upper troposphere. I think they should have left him as a Subtropical Storm because he really only looks like a Tropical Storm in the lowest levels of the troposphere - the vorticity is looking more like a low pressure front now in the middle levels of the troposphere as well as the upper levels.

He is currently at around 27.5N, 70.5W. This is a bit south and west of the official location of 27.9N, 70.1W. He appears to be heading westwardish, officially at 3mph. Winds are 50mph, with a central pressure estimated to be 999mb, making him a low-to-mid level storm (TS range: 39-73mph).

As I expected, convection really has not picked up – the IR satellite image from this evening is here:


Can you spot the difference from yesterday’s IR image? Oh yes, there’s that one small cloud…  ;-) There is just too much dry air around him for the convection to pick up and I still don’t see this changing any time soon.

There are storm warnings for Bermuda. It should be a lovely breezy night on Thursday. I’m not sure you should even bother dusting off the umbrellas.

I had all these grand plans to write about people I know called Sean, asteroids, high storm surge where the water temps are 1 deg C (brrr), and other relevant stuff, but must sleep now. Tomorrow is Carl Sagan Day. Maybe that will inspire me to write something scientific and clever … ;-) (one can hope at least).

Night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Atlantic Blob: November 7, Update A

In true Monty Python manner, the Atlantic Hurricane Season says, “I’m not dead yet!” J

There’s a swirly blob in the Atlantic centered at 69.7W, 27N, just southwest of Bermuda. The NHC have marked this as having a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression. This looks like a tropical depression already to me. You can very nicely see the closed circulation if you look at the satellite images. Here's the latest IR image:


If you want to watch the video to see the swirliness, scroll down on this page: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml until you see the heading ‘Atlantic Floater 1’. Click on Visible – Flash or IR – Flash to see the moving pictures (ooh, pretty). Looks like some nice closed circulation, doesn’t it? The vorticity (circulation) is actually very strong in the lower half of the troposphere and has the signature look of a tropical system.  There is also considerable vorticity in the upper levels of the troposphere, but that is associated with a low pressure front.

There are two factors that are inhibiting this from developing. The IR satellite image shows very little convection which is because of the dry air around it, and the you can see the clouds streaming off to the north and east, which indicates wind shear.

It seems unlikely to me that this will develop very much more because of these two things, but it’s worth keeping an eye on just because the circulation is strong.

Ho hum. So much for an early nap! I’ll be back if this thinks of doing anything dodgy. The next name is Sean, in case we need to know such things.

Ciao!
J.

p.s. <Cool Astronomy!> As you know (or will know once you’ve read this), there’s a Large Asteroid in the ‘hood. It is the size of an aircraft carrier, or around 400m wide for those of us who haven’t got aircraft carrier sizes memorized. It will pass just slightly closer to Earth than the moon’s orbit. “Don’t Panic!” (HHGTTG). It is called ‘YU55’ (no relative of U2). The last time this sort of thing happened was in 1976, but the astronomers of the day forgot to set their alarms and didn’t know this had happened until it was too late. Having been caught snoozing once, they have already calculated the next time this will happen (other than tomorrow of course) will be in the year 2028. They have set their alarms for the year 2027 and 45 seconds… <end of Cool Astronomy!>

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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