Tropical Storm Igor:
Igor is back to being a Tropical Storm. I think he's been one for almost 24 hours and is actually stronger than the official intensity, which has him as a weak storm with estimated winds of 45mph (TS range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is estimated to be 1002mb. He's located at 16.7N, 33.3W and is moving westward(ish) at 21mph. Convection really picked up late yesterday and has remained strong throughout the day today. He also has extraordinarily strong circulation throughout the lowest half of the troposphere - which also suggests to me that he is a lot stronger than the official advisory. He is experiencing some wind shear from the east, so the bulk of the convection is west of the center of circulation.
That's it for today. But while we wait for Igor to develop further, anyone fancy seeing an opera? I'm not very familiar with the language, but I'm sure they'll have surtitles. It's a fine but little-known Klingon piece: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-11265311. ;-)
Qapla', (I think). (Hey, I had to use google too. Really I did.)
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Friday, September 10, 2010
Thursday, September 09, 2010
Tropical Depression Igor and the Atlantic Blobette: September 9, Update A
Sorry about the absence! I've been travelling back to Planet Earth. I am back with a new philosophy: "If I ignore them, they will vanish." It's the opposite to "If you build it, they will come". You heard it here first. ;-)
Tropical Storm Hermine:
'Her-meen' turned out to be mean, didn't she? For a Tropical Storm she did have a fair amount of convection and vorticity in her, which spawned a few tornadoes and caused quite some devastation and a couple of deaths. :-( She's gone now (more or less), so this is my last note on her.
Tropical Depression Igor:
Igor? Really? For a hurricane? That's the name they chose to replace Ivan? Really? Oh well. ;-)
Igor (pronounced: Ee-gor) went from blob to Tropical Storm yesterday sometime, and is now back down to a Tropical Depression. He has a lot of vorticity (A LOT), but wind shear and dry air are taking their toll and won't let that convection get too strong at the moment. The forecast had called for him to increase as a Tropical Storm into a Hurricane in a couple of days. Are you noticing a trend in these dinky storms that aren't getting as strong as the forecasts suggest? The problem is that the models don't have a good handle on dry and dusty air, which is why they are overpredicting some of these blobs. Same story with Gaston and a few others. Igor is at 16N, 26.4W, moving NW at 13mph, with estimated winds of 35mph and a central pressure of 1004 mb. Given the strong vorticity, I think there's a very good chance he will reform once he gets away from the dry/dusty air and wind shear. I'll mention him again when something happens.
Atlantic Blobette:
Some moderate vorticity in the lower part of the troposphere, but no convection. This blobette is just outside the Caribbean, at around 12N, 60W. We'll see if the convection picks up. I'll also mention this one when/if something happens. Next name is Julia.
That's all for today folks!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Hermine:
'Her-meen' turned out to be mean, didn't she? For a Tropical Storm she did have a fair amount of convection and vorticity in her, which spawned a few tornadoes and caused quite some devastation and a couple of deaths. :-( She's gone now (more or less), so this is my last note on her.
Tropical Depression Igor:
Igor? Really? For a hurricane? That's the name they chose to replace Ivan? Really? Oh well. ;-)
Igor (pronounced: Ee-gor) went from blob to Tropical Storm yesterday sometime, and is now back down to a Tropical Depression. He has a lot of vorticity (A LOT), but wind shear and dry air are taking their toll and won't let that convection get too strong at the moment. The forecast had called for him to increase as a Tropical Storm into a Hurricane in a couple of days. Are you noticing a trend in these dinky storms that aren't getting as strong as the forecasts suggest? The problem is that the models don't have a good handle on dry and dusty air, which is why they are overpredicting some of these blobs. Same story with Gaston and a few others. Igor is at 16N, 26.4W, moving NW at 13mph, with estimated winds of 35mph and a central pressure of 1004 mb. Given the strong vorticity, I think there's a very good chance he will reform once he gets away from the dry/dusty air and wind shear. I'll mention him again when something happens.
Atlantic Blobette:
Some moderate vorticity in the lower part of the troposphere, but no convection. This blobette is just outside the Caribbean, at around 12N, 60W. We'll see if the convection picks up. I'll also mention this one when/if something happens. Next name is Julia.
That's all for today folks!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Monday, September 06, 2010
Tropical Storm Hermine & Gaston, the Atlantic Blob: September 6, Update A
Tropical Storm Hermine:
Our Gulf of Mexico Blobette was officially upgraded to a Tropical Depression late last night, and then to a Tropical Storm in the early hours of this morning. She's about to make landfall in Mexico, just south of the Texas border. Normally, as you know, I would be saying something (i.e. ranting ;-)) about short-lived storms and a wasted name, but in this case she really is a Tropical Storm. It's just fortunate that she developed so close to the coast. Her center is at 24.5N, 97W and she's moving NNW at 15mph. This little beauty had a lot of convection in her (decreasing at the moment) - lots of rain over Mexico and Texas. You can see both the center of circulation and the rainfall on the NWS radar at Brownsville (http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=bro&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no). Click on the word 'loop' on the left, next to Composite or Base, under Short Range Images.
Central pressure is 992mb with winds of 60mph, making her a mid-sized Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Despite low wind shear I don't think she'll intensify too much more because she's interacting with land. She doesn't have any circulation (vorticity) in the upper troposphere, which also suggests she doesn't have enough structure to become a hurricane.
Gaston, the Atlantic Blob:
He's still driving under the influence of dry and dusty air, which isn't advisable if you have plans to become a Tropical Storm again. ;-) Wind shear is low and he has good circulation in the lowest half of the troposphere, but convection is minimal. He's somewhere in the region of 17.5N, 58.5W and is moving westward towards the northern Leeward Islands at 15-20mph. It looks like the air over the northern Caribbean (say Hispaniola and west) has more water vapor, so if he survives for the next couple of days and remains away from land, there's a good chance he'll re-form. You can see 'Gaston, the blob' on the Meteo France Guadeloupe radar (http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html).
That's it for today. Time for a spot of nosh. :-)
Ciao! (ha ha ha)
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Our Gulf of Mexico Blobette was officially upgraded to a Tropical Depression late last night, and then to a Tropical Storm in the early hours of this morning. She's about to make landfall in Mexico, just south of the Texas border. Normally, as you know, I would be saying something (i.e. ranting ;-)) about short-lived storms and a wasted name, but in this case she really is a Tropical Storm. It's just fortunate that she developed so close to the coast. Her center is at 24.5N, 97W and she's moving NNW at 15mph. This little beauty had a lot of convection in her (decreasing at the moment) - lots of rain over Mexico and Texas. You can see both the center of circulation and the rainfall on the NWS radar at Brownsville (http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=bro&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no). Click on the word 'loop' on the left, next to Composite or Base, under Short Range Images.
Central pressure is 992mb with winds of 60mph, making her a mid-sized Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Despite low wind shear I don't think she'll intensify too much more because she's interacting with land. She doesn't have any circulation (vorticity) in the upper troposphere, which also suggests she doesn't have enough structure to become a hurricane.
Gaston, the Atlantic Blob:
He's still driving under the influence of dry and dusty air, which isn't advisable if you have plans to become a Tropical Storm again. ;-) Wind shear is low and he has good circulation in the lowest half of the troposphere, but convection is minimal. He's somewhere in the region of 17.5N, 58.5W and is moving westward towards the northern Leeward Islands at 15-20mph. It looks like the air over the northern Caribbean (say Hispaniola and west) has more water vapor, so if he survives for the next couple of days and remains away from land, there's a good chance he'll re-form. You can see 'Gaston, the blob' on the Meteo France Guadeloupe radar (http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html).
That's it for today. Time for a spot of nosh. :-)
Ciao! (ha ha ha)
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Sunday, September 05, 2010
Tropical Storm Earl, Gaston the remanent low, and Gulf of Mexico blob: September 5, Update A
Shortest update yet!
Tropical Storm Earl:
He's not really a tropical storm anymore. This is my last entry on Earl.
Gaston, the remanent low:
He's still got circulation but convection is still struggling. The center is at 17N, 50.5W, heading WNW. Once he gets out of the dry air then he'll make a move - it looks like convection is picking up. I'd call him a Tropical Depression at this point.
Gulf of Mexico Blobette:
This has convection and now has some vorticity, so it could develop into a storm before making landfall. It's moving NW at 5-10 mph. It's quite disorganized though, so it is difficult to find a center point. Next name is Hermine (pronounced her-MEEN).
That's it for today. :-)
Ciao,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Earl:
He's not really a tropical storm anymore. This is my last entry on Earl.
Gaston, the remanent low:
He's still got circulation but convection is still struggling. The center is at 17N, 50.5W, heading WNW. Once he gets out of the dry air then he'll make a move - it looks like convection is picking up. I'd call him a Tropical Depression at this point.
Gulf of Mexico Blobette:
This has convection and now has some vorticity, so it could develop into a storm before making landfall. It's moving NW at 5-10 mph. It's quite disorganized though, so it is difficult to find a center point. Next name is Hermine (pronounced her-MEEN).
That's it for today. :-)
Ciao,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Saturday, September 04, 2010
Tropical Storm Earl, Fiona a remanent Low, Gaston a remanent Low, and a couple of blob-looking things: September 4, Update A
Finally, a short update. Yay!
Tropical Storm Earl:
He's at 45.8N, 63.2W and is visiting northeastern Canada (Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and er whatever else they keep up there ;-)). Winds are 70mph, so he's still a pretty strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is 965mb and he's moving NE at a whopping 40mph! There isn't too much in the way of convection left compared to earlier in his life, but it's still more than Fiona or Gaston at the moment. Mostly rain with a couple of small thunderstorms I'd guess. However, he still has a lot of vorticity, and it hasn't changed since yesterday (not even in the highest levels of the troposphere). The forecast keeps him as a Tropical Storm until Tuesday. I think he'll become one of those 'Post Tropical Storm' things that the NHC have introduced as 'new' terminology for this year. Given the vorticity, I agree that he will persist for at least another couple of days as some sort of stormy weather system.
Fiona, a remanent Low:
She's hardly got any vorticity and next-to-no convection. Bermuda scored one for the team, and she pretty much dissipated in that region. Well done you guys! :-) The low is now just northeast of the island. This is my last entry on this system.
Gaston, a remanent Low:
The NHC have increased his chance of becoming a Tropical Storm to 80%. Convection has increased, but only very slightly since yesterday. He is still surrounded by dry and dusty air. Vorticity is good in the lowest half of the troposphere, but not in the upper levels. At the moment I think the most this will become is a Tropical Storm. If that. His center is at 16.5N, 46.6W and he's moving westward at 10mph. It looks like he will begin to move WNW though, towards that northern corner of the Caribbean. Too soon to say if he will remain in the Atlantic or what he'll do when he gets there.
A couple of blobby things - Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico:
The one in the eastern Atlantic has had it's chance of development dropped to 10% since yesterday. No surprise there.
There's a mass of convection in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but there isn't much in the way of structure. I don't think this will develop unless that vorticity improves.
If there are any developments on these two, I'll write about them otherwise I'm not going to bother.
That's all for today, stormwise. For those who are wondering about life on another planet, so far today I've seen Scott Bakula, Gil Gerard, Kevin Anderson, and Garret Wang, along with a host of other aliens and whatnots. Back into the fray. :-)
Until the morrow my friends!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Earl:
He's at 45.8N, 63.2W and is visiting northeastern Canada (Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and er whatever else they keep up there ;-)). Winds are 70mph, so he's still a pretty strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is 965mb and he's moving NE at a whopping 40mph! There isn't too much in the way of convection left compared to earlier in his life, but it's still more than Fiona or Gaston at the moment. Mostly rain with a couple of small thunderstorms I'd guess. However, he still has a lot of vorticity, and it hasn't changed since yesterday (not even in the highest levels of the troposphere). The forecast keeps him as a Tropical Storm until Tuesday. I think he'll become one of those 'Post Tropical Storm' things that the NHC have introduced as 'new' terminology for this year. Given the vorticity, I agree that he will persist for at least another couple of days as some sort of stormy weather system.
Fiona, a remanent Low:
She's hardly got any vorticity and next-to-no convection. Bermuda scored one for the team, and she pretty much dissipated in that region. Well done you guys! :-) The low is now just northeast of the island. This is my last entry on this system.
Gaston, a remanent Low:
The NHC have increased his chance of becoming a Tropical Storm to 80%. Convection has increased, but only very slightly since yesterday. He is still surrounded by dry and dusty air. Vorticity is good in the lowest half of the troposphere, but not in the upper levels. At the moment I think the most this will become is a Tropical Storm. If that. His center is at 16.5N, 46.6W and he's moving westward at 10mph. It looks like he will begin to move WNW though, towards that northern corner of the Caribbean. Too soon to say if he will remain in the Atlantic or what he'll do when he gets there.
A couple of blobby things - Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico:
The one in the eastern Atlantic has had it's chance of development dropped to 10% since yesterday. No surprise there.
There's a mass of convection in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but there isn't much in the way of structure. I don't think this will develop unless that vorticity improves.
If there are any developments on these two, I'll write about them otherwise I'm not going to bother.
That's all for today, stormwise. For those who are wondering about life on another planet, so far today I've seen Scott Bakula, Gil Gerard, Kevin Anderson, and Garret Wang, along with a host of other aliens and whatnots. Back into the fray. :-)
Until the morrow my friends!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Friday, September 03, 2010
Hurricane Earl, Tropical Storm Fiona, Gaston the remanent low, and an Atlantic Blobette: September 3, Update A
I see things are winding down out there. Oh, wait, that was a dream I had. Never mind. ;-)
Hurricane Earl:
Wind shear and interaction with land continues to bring this chap down, along with some dry air. He's now got winds of 80mph, so he's a mid-sized cat 1 (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) with a central pressure of 961mb. He is moving NE at 22mph and is past the Gulf Stream 'danger zone' so water temperatures are cooler... a lot cooler with surface temperatures now only 25 deg C. He's at 38.2N, 71.8W. Vorticity is still strong throughout the troposphere, but I see signs of weakening in the upper levels (yay!). Given the conditions he's operating under he will continue to weaken. Convection is greatly reduced, with all of the strongest stuff offshore. I think he'll be a Tropical Storm by the time he passes Cape Cod later tonight and when he makes landfall in Nova Scotia tomorrow afternoon - this is the same as the NHC forecast.
Tropical Storm Fiona:
She's at about 30N, 65.5W and is moving NNE at 14mph. Her winds are officially 40mph, which means she's barely a Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Her central pressure is 1011mb. I don't think she's a Tropical Storm any more. There is some convection, but very little, and vorticity is only in the lowest sections of the troposphere. The remanent low that is Gaston has more vorticity. Surface water temperatures are 28 deg C but the warm water is very shallow with 26.5 deg C or warmer only in the upper 50m. She's continuing to experience strong wind shear and is surrounded by the Saharan Air Layer (dry and dusty air - cough cough), which has taken it's toll. I agree with the NHC on their forecast - she'll pass close to Bermuda but will be a Tropical Depression. Bermuda might not even get any rain - it might be a pleasantly breezy day... er night I mean (she'll get there sometime tonight).
Gaston, the remanent low:
I know I said I'd only send an update if something happened - the NHC have increased his chances of becoming a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours to 50%. He's trying to get going and convection is a little stronger. Vortcity is stronger than Fiona, and covers the entire lower half of the troposphere. His center is somewhere around 15.5N, 43W and he is moving westward at 10mph. He's still surrounded by dry and dusty air, which is inhibiting his development.
Atlantic Blobette:
Yes, there's another one. It's teetering on the edge of my crystal ball, way out in the eastern Atlantic. I'm not going to write more about this until I can see what's going on, or it becomes a storm in which case the NHC will have better information than I do. At the moment they have given it a 30% probability of TS formation in the next 48 hours. We'll see about that. With all this dusty air around, I'm not so sure.
That's it for today. I'm told that 'Noir Spiderman' and 'Vampire Jubilee' are in my room. I don't know what this means either, but I think I should leave... ! ;-)
Toodle pip!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Hurricane Earl:
Wind shear and interaction with land continues to bring this chap down, along with some dry air. He's now got winds of 80mph, so he's a mid-sized cat 1 (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) with a central pressure of 961mb. He is moving NE at 22mph and is past the Gulf Stream 'danger zone' so water temperatures are cooler... a lot cooler with surface temperatures now only 25 deg C. He's at 38.2N, 71.8W. Vorticity is still strong throughout the troposphere, but I see signs of weakening in the upper levels (yay!). Given the conditions he's operating under he will continue to weaken. Convection is greatly reduced, with all of the strongest stuff offshore. I think he'll be a Tropical Storm by the time he passes Cape Cod later tonight and when he makes landfall in Nova Scotia tomorrow afternoon - this is the same as the NHC forecast.
Tropical Storm Fiona:
She's at about 30N, 65.5W and is moving NNE at 14mph. Her winds are officially 40mph, which means she's barely a Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Her central pressure is 1011mb. I don't think she's a Tropical Storm any more. There is some convection, but very little, and vorticity is only in the lowest sections of the troposphere. The remanent low that is Gaston has more vorticity. Surface water temperatures are 28 deg C but the warm water is very shallow with 26.5 deg C or warmer only in the upper 50m. She's continuing to experience strong wind shear and is surrounded by the Saharan Air Layer (dry and dusty air - cough cough), which has taken it's toll. I agree with the NHC on their forecast - she'll pass close to Bermuda but will be a Tropical Depression. Bermuda might not even get any rain - it might be a pleasantly breezy day... er night I mean (she'll get there sometime tonight).
Gaston, the remanent low:
I know I said I'd only send an update if something happened - the NHC have increased his chances of becoming a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours to 50%. He's trying to get going and convection is a little stronger. Vortcity is stronger than Fiona, and covers the entire lower half of the troposphere. His center is somewhere around 15.5N, 43W and he is moving westward at 10mph. He's still surrounded by dry and dusty air, which is inhibiting his development.
Atlantic Blobette:
Yes, there's another one. It's teetering on the edge of my crystal ball, way out in the eastern Atlantic. I'm not going to write more about this until I can see what's going on, or it becomes a storm in which case the NHC will have better information than I do. At the moment they have given it a 30% probability of TS formation in the next 48 hours. We'll see about that. With all this dusty air around, I'm not so sure.
That's it for today. I'm told that 'Noir Spiderman' and 'Vampire Jubilee' are in my room. I don't know what this means either, but I think I should leave... ! ;-)
Toodle pip!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Thursday, September 02, 2010
Hurricane Earl, Tropical Storm Fiona, and Gaston, the remanent Low: September 2, Update A
The problem with interplanetary travel is the time it takes. I wasn't able to get to a computer to get an update out because of travelling. I wish they'd hurry up and invent a teleportation device. Or better yet, I'd like a real TARDIS so I don't have to pack either. ;-)
Hurricane Earl:
He's at about 32.5N, 75.2W, officially heading N at 18mph. He'll miss the outer banks, but parts of North Carolina are getting some breezy and wet weather. It looks to me as though he may be heading NNE now, which is good because it takes his eye away from the outer banks. He weakened today (as soon as I managed to get to a properly working computer of course ;-)). This is primarily because he's experiencing heavy wind shear from the southwest (if you look at satellite images you can see more clouds to the northeast of the system than to the south). Weakening is also partly because he has started to interact with land (North Carolina).
His wind speed is 115mph, so he's still a major cat 3 hurricane (range: 111-130mph) with a central pressure of 947mb. He may pick up a bit as he gets closer to the Gulf Stream (just south of the outer banks) but it's unlikely that he'll get beyond a cat 3 storm at that point because the wind shear is so strong and there is land interaction. His vorticity is still very strong over the entire troposphere, which means that he has the potential to intensify in the future but the wind shear would have to weaken, he'd have to move away from land, and water temperatures would have to be warm enough. Surface water temperatures are currently over 29 deg C, with waters warmer than 26.5 deg C in the upper 75 meters of the water column.
Water levels along the coast are about 0.5ft above normal south of Cape Hatteras and still rising (from Tides Online, looking at North Carolina - see this for details on how to look for yourself: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2010/08/atlantic-blobette-and-tropical.html).
He is forecast to cross Cape Hatteras tonight, and all states north of there are under Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches and warning. He should pick up in forward speed and is forecast to reach the Massachussetts area on Saturday.
Tropical Storm Fiona:
She's at 25.6N, 66.4W, moving NNW at 17mph. Her maximum wind speeds are 50mph, making her a mid-sized Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is 1002mb. She is also under a lot of wind shear from the north, so most of her convection is south of the center - and there is a LOT of convection for such a little stormy. Water temperatures are 27-29 deg C, with 26.5 deg C or warmer water in the upper 75m. She's heading towards Bermuda, but with the wind shear as it is, she's going to struggle to be more than a Tropical Storm. There is no vorticity in the upper half of the troposphere, just the lowest half. She is forecast to cross the Bermuda region on Friday night.
Gaston, the remanent Low:
So I'm absent for a day and an Atlantic Blob that I hadn't even got around to writing about because he was so weak goes from an unamed system, to a named Tropical Storm with a forecast of a potential hurricane, back to being just a remanent Low? Golly. Life in the fast lane. Was that all in the last day? Maybe I travelled in time too? Is this a wasted name (for now), huh?
Gaston still has some decent circulation, including vorticity in the upper half of the troposphere, which means that he could re-intensify. Unlike Earl and Fiona who are being hit by wind shear, Gaston is suffering from a severe attack of the <pause for dramatic music> Saharan Air Layer! <dun dun dun> ;-) He's just not able to get that convection going at the moment. His center is at 13.5N, 39.5W, his winds are estimated to be 30mph, central pressure is estimated to be 1009mb. He's over water of 27-29 deg C and is moving W at 5mph.
The NHC has issued their last advisory on Gaston. There's a chance he'll re-group but I won't mention him again unless it looks like he's doing something interesting.
That's the state of play at the moment. Good luck to the North Carolinas - I see you are already getting a bit of rain in some parts.
Until tomorrow,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Hurricane Earl:
He's at about 32.5N, 75.2W, officially heading N at 18mph. He'll miss the outer banks, but parts of North Carolina are getting some breezy and wet weather. It looks to me as though he may be heading NNE now, which is good because it takes his eye away from the outer banks. He weakened today (as soon as I managed to get to a properly working computer of course ;-)). This is primarily because he's experiencing heavy wind shear from the southwest (if you look at satellite images you can see more clouds to the northeast of the system than to the south). Weakening is also partly because he has started to interact with land (North Carolina).
His wind speed is 115mph, so he's still a major cat 3 hurricane (range: 111-130mph) with a central pressure of 947mb. He may pick up a bit as he gets closer to the Gulf Stream (just south of the outer banks) but it's unlikely that he'll get beyond a cat 3 storm at that point because the wind shear is so strong and there is land interaction. His vorticity is still very strong over the entire troposphere, which means that he has the potential to intensify in the future but the wind shear would have to weaken, he'd have to move away from land, and water temperatures would have to be warm enough. Surface water temperatures are currently over 29 deg C, with waters warmer than 26.5 deg C in the upper 75 meters of the water column.
Water levels along the coast are about 0.5ft above normal south of Cape Hatteras and still rising (from Tides Online, looking at North Carolina - see this for details on how to look for yourself: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2010/08/atlantic-blobette-and-tropical.html).
He is forecast to cross Cape Hatteras tonight, and all states north of there are under Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches and warning. He should pick up in forward speed and is forecast to reach the Massachussetts area on Saturday.
Tropical Storm Fiona:
She's at 25.6N, 66.4W, moving NNW at 17mph. Her maximum wind speeds are 50mph, making her a mid-sized Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is 1002mb. She is also under a lot of wind shear from the north, so most of her convection is south of the center - and there is a LOT of convection for such a little stormy. Water temperatures are 27-29 deg C, with 26.5 deg C or warmer water in the upper 75m. She's heading towards Bermuda, but with the wind shear as it is, she's going to struggle to be more than a Tropical Storm. There is no vorticity in the upper half of the troposphere, just the lowest half. She is forecast to cross the Bermuda region on Friday night.
Gaston, the remanent Low:
So I'm absent for a day and an Atlantic Blob that I hadn't even got around to writing about because he was so weak goes from an unamed system, to a named Tropical Storm with a forecast of a potential hurricane, back to being just a remanent Low? Golly. Life in the fast lane. Was that all in the last day? Maybe I travelled in time too? Is this a wasted name (for now), huh?
Gaston still has some decent circulation, including vorticity in the upper half of the troposphere, which means that he could re-intensify. Unlike Earl and Fiona who are being hit by wind shear, Gaston is suffering from a severe attack of the <pause for dramatic music> Saharan Air Layer! <dun dun dun> ;-) He's just not able to get that convection going at the moment. His center is at 13.5N, 39.5W, his winds are estimated to be 30mph, central pressure is estimated to be 1009mb. He's over water of 27-29 deg C and is moving W at 5mph.
The NHC has issued their last advisory on Gaston. There's a chance he'll re-group but I won't mention him again unless it looks like he's doing something interesting.
That's the state of play at the moment. Good luck to the North Carolinas - I see you are already getting a bit of rain in some parts.
Until tomorrow,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona: August 31, Update C
Hurricane Earl:
My, but Earl is a big boy, isn't he? The NHC seem to have kept him as a cat 4 storm with winds of 135mph (cat 4 range: 131-155mph) even though he lost an eye. I don't think I've seen a cat 4 with no eye before. Personally, I think he decreased in intensity for a few hours there, but is getting back up to cat 4 level now. It looks like there were two reasons for the decrease. First, his southern edge was interacting with both Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. And second, he has been experiencing wind shear from the southwest. You can see a band of clouds streaming off to the northeast in satellite images of Earl.
He is currently at 22.5N, 69.1W, with a central pressure of 940mb and max winds of 135 mph. He's now moving NW at 14mph, and hurricane watches have been issued for a portion of the North Carolina coast. The new definition of a hurricane "watch" (for the 2010 season), by the way, is that hurricane conditions are expected within 48 hours - the new bit is that the lead time has been extended. Whether or not his center clips the Cape Hatteras region, other parts of the state will get some windy weather. At the moment hurricane force winds extend out 90 miles from the center, and Tropical Storm winds can be felt up to 200 miles away. And he still has to get to that Gulf Stream. As for convection. Yes. Lots of it - thunder and lightning and possible tornadoes in parts of the storm.
At his current location, water temperatures are over 29 deg C, with 26.5 deg C temperatures in the upper 75-100m of the water column. The vorticity in the atmosphere is quite impressive... the upper troposphere has circulation comparable to a strong Tropical Storm near the surface (where vorticity is usually greatest). So still a major storm and one that has a tenacious hold, and I don't think the wind shear will do much to change that.
From Tom J. on St. Thomas, sent around 5.30pm his time:
"We will not have electrical power for a few days till they clear many downed trees, limbs, on top of some of the wires all over the island.......a few poles are down, several transformers blown...........we got off easy with this storm considering that it went to a cat 4 so fast..........damm lucky."
I assume those in NC are preparing. As I said at some point today, the rest of the states should also be getting ready to be getting prepared... (ok, it's late over here, that sentence makes sense in my head! ;-)).
Tropical Storm Fiona:
It doesn't look like we'll see the Fujiwara Effect any time soon. Earl kept pushing Fiona away today. He probably didn't want to share his chocolate bar. Awww. She is looking quite blobette-like again, and I agree with the plane that went in and could barely find a Tropical Storm. Although there's a fair bit of convection (heavy rain and thundery weather), her circulation seems to be east of that. And although there is some circulation in the lower levels of the troposphere, it is west of the circulation in the middle of the troposphere (all these easts and wests - very confusing, no? ;-)). The bottom line is that they indicate (to me anyway) that some sort of shearing has occured from the north and west at some levels in the atmosphere, and I'd say that was Earl's fault.
She's 'centered' at 16.8N, 58.7W (it's tricky seeing an actual center in the midst of the blobetteness that is Fiona). She's moving WNW at 20mph, and the convection will soon reach the leeward islands. Wind speed is kept at 40mph (just so she can still be called a TS, even if she isn't really one), with a central pressure of 1006 mb. She's also over water of 29 + deg C, with warm water of over 26.5 deg C in the upper 100m. At this rate, she might dissipate once she's reached the islands. Wouldn't that be nice.
And now for something (almost) completely different: (Monty Python)
OK... so I'm travelling to another planet (Atlanta, Georgia) tomorrow. I was hoping that no-one would notice if I didn't write anything this week. Bother. I thought it was a good plan. With hindsight, maybe not the best idea to try it out in September though. Oops. ;-) Anyway, with exasperating Earl out there and with friends and readers in a number of states on the eastern US seaboard, I will activate some form of interplanetary communication at least once a day to chat about whatever is out there. Don't be surprised though if you see random sentences about aliens wandering around looking for a lift (er... elevator). ;-)
Night night!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
My, but Earl is a big boy, isn't he? The NHC seem to have kept him as a cat 4 storm with winds of 135mph (cat 4 range: 131-155mph) even though he lost an eye. I don't think I've seen a cat 4 with no eye before. Personally, I think he decreased in intensity for a few hours there, but is getting back up to cat 4 level now. It looks like there were two reasons for the decrease. First, his southern edge was interacting with both Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. And second, he has been experiencing wind shear from the southwest. You can see a band of clouds streaming off to the northeast in satellite images of Earl.
He is currently at 22.5N, 69.1W, with a central pressure of 940mb and max winds of 135 mph. He's now moving NW at 14mph, and hurricane watches have been issued for a portion of the North Carolina coast. The new definition of a hurricane "watch" (for the 2010 season), by the way, is that hurricane conditions are expected within 48 hours - the new bit is that the lead time has been extended. Whether or not his center clips the Cape Hatteras region, other parts of the state will get some windy weather. At the moment hurricane force winds extend out 90 miles from the center, and Tropical Storm winds can be felt up to 200 miles away. And he still has to get to that Gulf Stream. As for convection. Yes. Lots of it - thunder and lightning and possible tornadoes in parts of the storm.
At his current location, water temperatures are over 29 deg C, with 26.5 deg C temperatures in the upper 75-100m of the water column. The vorticity in the atmosphere is quite impressive... the upper troposphere has circulation comparable to a strong Tropical Storm near the surface (where vorticity is usually greatest). So still a major storm and one that has a tenacious hold, and I don't think the wind shear will do much to change that.
From Tom J. on St. Thomas, sent around 5.30pm his time:
"We will not have electrical power for a few days till they clear many downed trees, limbs, on top of some of the wires all over the island.......a few poles are down, several transformers blown...........we got off easy with this storm considering that it went to a cat 4 so fast..........damm lucky."
I assume those in NC are preparing. As I said at some point today, the rest of the states should also be getting ready to be getting prepared... (ok, it's late over here, that sentence makes sense in my head! ;-)).
Tropical Storm Fiona:
It doesn't look like we'll see the Fujiwara Effect any time soon. Earl kept pushing Fiona away today. He probably didn't want to share his chocolate bar. Awww. She is looking quite blobette-like again, and I agree with the plane that went in and could barely find a Tropical Storm. Although there's a fair bit of convection (heavy rain and thundery weather), her circulation seems to be east of that. And although there is some circulation in the lower levels of the troposphere, it is west of the circulation in the middle of the troposphere (all these easts and wests - very confusing, no? ;-)). The bottom line is that they indicate (to me anyway) that some sort of shearing has occured from the north and west at some levels in the atmosphere, and I'd say that was Earl's fault.
She's 'centered' at 16.8N, 58.7W (it's tricky seeing an actual center in the midst of the blobetteness that is Fiona). She's moving WNW at 20mph, and the convection will soon reach the leeward islands. Wind speed is kept at 40mph (just so she can still be called a TS, even if she isn't really one), with a central pressure of 1006 mb. She's also over water of 29 + deg C, with warm water of over 26.5 deg C in the upper 100m. At this rate, she might dissipate once she's reached the islands. Wouldn't that be nice.
And now for something (almost) completely different: (Monty Python)
OK... so I'm travelling to another planet (Atlanta, Georgia) tomorrow. I was hoping that no-one would notice if I didn't write anything this week. Bother. I thought it was a good plan. With hindsight, maybe not the best idea to try it out in September though. Oops. ;-) Anyway, with exasperating Earl out there and with friends and readers in a number of states on the eastern US seaboard, I will activate some form of interplanetary communication at least once a day to chat about whatever is out there. Don't be surprised though if you see random sentences about aliens wandering around looking for a lift (er... elevator). ;-)
Night night!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Hurricane Earl & Tropical Storm Fiona: August 31, Update B
Just a short lunchtime update as interesting things are afoot (and aloft) in the Atlantic.
Earl is still a cat 5, but is slowly slowing down in forward speed. He's now moving at 13mph. Meanwhile, Fiona is still a weak Tropical Storm, but is increasing/moving quickly in forward speed along the same path as Earl (now at 24mph). The two are already interacting, but the question is how much, and in what form...
One scenario we might see is called the Fujiwara Effect (or a Fujiwara Interaction). Basically, if we have two rotating cyclones and they get close to each other (with the western one moving slower than the eastern one) then they start to rotate around each other and around a point between the two systems. Eventually they will spiral in to that central point and merge. This is more frequently seen in the Pacific, but once every few years it happens in the Atlantic. The last time seems to be in 1995 between Iris and Karen.
Another option is straightforward absorption - if Fiona gets much closer, Earl may 'absorb' her.
Yet another scenario is that Fiona slows down, and retains her identity.
Her leading edge is approaching the Leeward Islands now so she is very close to Earl. This proximity complicates everything and I don't know quite how this will play out in terms of track or intensity yet. I'll send another update later.
J.
Disclaimer: read the last one cos I'm sending this via phone & can't get hold of it. But basically - these are my opinions, not those of anyone I represent & listen to your emergency managers, NHC & weather service as they have the best/most up-to-date info.
Earl is still a cat 5, but is slowly slowing down in forward speed. He's now moving at 13mph. Meanwhile, Fiona is still a weak Tropical Storm, but is increasing/moving quickly in forward speed along the same path as Earl (now at 24mph). The two are already interacting, but the question is how much, and in what form...
One scenario we might see is called the Fujiwara Effect (or a Fujiwara Interaction). Basically, if we have two rotating cyclones and they get close to each other (with the western one moving slower than the eastern one) then they start to rotate around each other and around a point between the two systems. Eventually they will spiral in to that central point and merge. This is more frequently seen in the Pacific, but once every few years it happens in the Atlantic. The last time seems to be in 1995 between Iris and Karen.
Another option is straightforward absorption - if Fiona gets much closer, Earl may 'absorb' her.
Yet another scenario is that Fiona slows down, and retains her identity.
Her leading edge is approaching the Leeward Islands now so she is very close to Earl. This proximity complicates everything and I don't know quite how this will play out in terms of track or intensity yet. I'll send another update later.
J.
Disclaimer: read the last one cos I'm sending this via phone & can't get hold of it. But basically - these are my opinions, not those of anyone I represent & listen to your emergency managers, NHC & weather service as they have the best/most up-to-date info.
Hurricane Earl, Post-Tropical Storm Danielle, Tropical Storm Fiona: August 31, Update A
Post-Tropical Storm Danielle:
After my last entry, she was downgraded to a Tropical Storm, and then downgraded to a 'Post Tropical Storm'. That's god enough for me. This is my last entry on Danielle, who was much better behaved than Earl! :-)
Hurricane Earl:
He's at 19.9N, 66.2W, with winds of 135mph making him a cat 4 (range of cat 4: 131-155mph). He's moving WNW at 14mph, with a low central pressure of 933mb. He has not got to the Gulf Stream yet, so it looks like he might intensify further at that point. The importance of crossing the Gulf Stream is that it is a source of deep warm water. It skirts the US east coast from Florida to North Carolina, then breaks away and flows out into the Atlantic.
But before getting there, there's a chance he'll weaken a bit. His convection isn't as strong as I've seen for some cat 4s, and it's possible that it will get reduced by some small interaction with Hispaniola. There's also a bit of wind shear ahead of him - I'm not sure how much of an impact it will have though, given how strong he is.
At the moment I'd say I think he's going to clip the US coastline - North Carolina. And when I say clip, I mean the eye... which means that even further inland will feel the effects of a strong hurricane. The current forecast path then has him moving along the NE coast towards New York and New England. It's possible that he won't be as severe (i.e. not a cat 4 or 5) by the time he gets to that northern part of the US because he will have interacted with land.
From St. Thomas (Tom J.):
It is 11:30PM HERE AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH HAVE PROVEN TO BE MORE STRONG AND GUSTY THAN THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM BLOWING FROM THE NORTH..........THE LEADING EDGE OF EARL SEEMED TO BE THE WORST OF THE GUSTY WINDS BUT DID NOT LAST QUITE AS LONG AS WHEN THE WIND SHIFTED FROM THE NORTH TO BLOWING FROM THE SOUTH............WE ARE TOLD HEAVY RAIN IS OUR REWARD FOR HAVING MISSED A VISIT FROM THE EYE OF EARL.........WITH NO POWER, AND 85 DEGREES F. THINGS ARE QUITE FUNKY HERE IN THE HOUSE WHERE IT IS STILL A BIT UNWISE TO OPEN WINDOWS...........GOOD THING FOR GENERATORS WHICH ARE RUNNING FOR THE HOUSE EVERY FEW HOURS TO CONSERVE GASOLINE..........fIONA IS NEXT..........THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS HEALTHY WITH NO MENTION FROM THE NHL AT THIS HOUR
From experience, I've also often found the south side of a storm to be more damaging than the north, despite theory.
Good luck to those in the VIs! I hope there's time to recover before Fiona comes knocking on your door.
Tropical Storm Fiona:
She went from an area of invest directly to Tropical Storm status, with no mention of an official Tropical Depression. Anyway, at least she's officially a storm now. Low wind shear, low level circulation is slowly improving, but nothing in the higher levels at the moment. Convection is slowly improving. Current winds are 40mph, so she's barely a Tropical Storm. She's zooming westward at 23 mph, central pressure 1007mb. Location around 15.5N. 51.8W.
More on all of the above (except Danielle) later... must get into work!
Toodles,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
After my last entry, she was downgraded to a Tropical Storm, and then downgraded to a 'Post Tropical Storm'. That's god enough for me. This is my last entry on Danielle, who was much better behaved than Earl! :-)
Hurricane Earl:
He's at 19.9N, 66.2W, with winds of 135mph making him a cat 4 (range of cat 4: 131-155mph). He's moving WNW at 14mph, with a low central pressure of 933mb. He has not got to the Gulf Stream yet, so it looks like he might intensify further at that point. The importance of crossing the Gulf Stream is that it is a source of deep warm water. It skirts the US east coast from Florida to North Carolina, then breaks away and flows out into the Atlantic.
But before getting there, there's a chance he'll weaken a bit. His convection isn't as strong as I've seen for some cat 4s, and it's possible that it will get reduced by some small interaction with Hispaniola. There's also a bit of wind shear ahead of him - I'm not sure how much of an impact it will have though, given how strong he is.
At the moment I'd say I think he's going to clip the US coastline - North Carolina. And when I say clip, I mean the eye... which means that even further inland will feel the effects of a strong hurricane. The current forecast path then has him moving along the NE coast towards New York and New England. It's possible that he won't be as severe (i.e. not a cat 4 or 5) by the time he gets to that northern part of the US because he will have interacted with land.
From St. Thomas (Tom J.):
It is 11:30PM HERE AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH HAVE PROVEN TO BE MORE STRONG AND GUSTY THAN THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM BLOWING FROM THE NORTH..........THE LEADING EDGE OF EARL SEEMED TO BE THE WORST OF THE GUSTY WINDS BUT DID NOT LAST QUITE AS LONG AS WHEN THE WIND SHIFTED FROM THE NORTH TO BLOWING FROM THE SOUTH............WE ARE TOLD HEAVY RAIN IS OUR REWARD FOR HAVING MISSED A VISIT FROM THE EYE OF EARL.........WITH NO POWER, AND 85 DEGREES F. THINGS ARE QUITE FUNKY HERE IN THE HOUSE WHERE IT IS STILL A BIT UNWISE TO OPEN WINDOWS...........GOOD THING FOR GENERATORS WHICH ARE RUNNING FOR THE HOUSE EVERY FEW HOURS TO CONSERVE GASOLINE..........fIONA IS NEXT..........THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS HEALTHY WITH NO MENTION FROM THE NHL AT THIS HOUR
From experience, I've also often found the south side of a storm to be more damaging than the north, despite theory.
Good luck to those in the VIs! I hope there's time to recover before Fiona comes knocking on your door.
Tropical Storm Fiona:
She went from an area of invest directly to Tropical Storm status, with no mention of an official Tropical Depression. Anyway, at least she's officially a storm now. Low wind shear, low level circulation is slowly improving, but nothing in the higher levels at the moment. Convection is slowly improving. Current winds are 40mph, so she's barely a Tropical Storm. She's zooming westward at 23 mph, central pressure 1007mb. Location around 15.5N. 51.8W.
More on all of the above (except Danielle) later... must get into work!
Toodles,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Monday, August 30, 2010
Hurricane Danielle, Hurricane Earl, and the Atlantic Blobette: August 30, Update B
Hurricane Earl:
Hurricane Earl is officially a strong cat 3 storm with winds of 125 mph (range: 111-130mph), central pressure of 955mb. His center is at about 19.1N, 64.4W, and according to the NHC he's moving WNW at 15mph. His eye isn't as clear as I'd expect from a storm of that magnitude (although it is clearing up as I write this). And he just had a 'wobble' (they do that sometimes) which took him from a WNW track to a W track. He's back to WNW, but there's a chance that his eye is going to pass a little closer to the US VIs (maybe around 60-70 miles).
Reports from St. Thomas (from Tom J.):
About 7am their time (6am EST): "Our electric is out already as trees are down pulling wires with them.....not enough wind to justify no power but hurricanes are never accomodating.........as of 655am we are just seeing bands roll in with some gusty wind and light rain till the band passes........on computer bat so keeping it short.......not sure how long internet connection will last so that will depend on you getting messages..........we heard that the next storm is still on track."
9.38am their time:
"at 9:38am it is mostly just sporadic rain showers with some (not much gusty wind)..............as the storm moves westard the VI is getting nearer to the inner band of Earl which has steady winds which is due here around noon..........should be 50mph or so for a few hours...........being on the south side of the eye is saving us from the pounding of the higher force winds...........we hope to LUCK OUT on this one.........any tracking data on the next system in a few days?.........power has been restored for now but will probably go off when the steady winds hit.........I will try communicating when possible"
About 3.30pm their time (it got to me after an hour or so delay):
"Earl is now 63 miles north of us and there is barely any wind or rain here..........the satellite pictures are scary looking but the worse part of the storm so far has been losing electricity.......so being on the south side of this storm is the key to having a big BBQ with plenty of beer while the monster passes........perhaps if the storm coming up on us is this forboding there will be free Ribs and Coronas for all!"
I've also had a couple of queries about if this will head to North Carolina. I know I told you guys in NC to keep an eye on this one a few days ago and I still think that. It's too soon to say. I think it's a possiblity that NC will get clipped, even though the center of the cone takes him out to sea - you are in the cone. Everyone in the cone should keep an eye on him. He's been tracking very slightly farther west than the forecast track from the beginning. There's a small chance he'll slow down (and have a few extra banana daiquiris), which will change a few things. I'll let you know as soon as I have a better idea.
Hurricane Danielle:
Although the NHC still have her as a cat 1 hurricane with estimated winds of 75mph and central pressure of 970mb, I really think she's less than that. She still has a pretty good circulation in the lower troposphere, but in the mid-to-upper levels she's become more like a front. She's moving NE at 16mph. Her center is at 41N, 50W, but she's over water temperatures of 23-24 deg C. Brrr. Too cold to sustain a storm, which requires at least 26.5 deg C. I need to get a cup of tea to warm up just thinking of those temperatures! And there is next to NO convection in this system - just a bunch of rotating clouds with barely enough water to scare a cat! I think she's a Subtropical Storm.
Atlantic Blobette:
This is still looking a little too wonky to be a Tropical Storm, but a Tropical Depression would fit. There is closed circulation and it has improved during the day, and it certainly has way more heavy rain and thunderstorms than Danielle has had for the last day! I estimate the center to be around 15N, 47.6W and it's moving W at 20mph. Water temps are 28 deg C. Still not sure why it's not been upgraded to an 'L' on the NHC map, although it is listed as having a 90% chance and plane and satellite data both indicate that Tropical Storm force winds are detected in a small area of the storm. Maybe they'll go straight to naming it once it's on top of the northern Leeward Islands because those guys already have their hurricane preparations in place and their shutters up so they won't need any advanced warning, right? Sigh.
At the moment it looks like this one will continue west and there's a chance it may pass south of Earl's track. It's not as strong as Earl was at this location (I think), partly maybe because Earl is having a bit of an influence on it.
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Hurricane Earl is officially a strong cat 3 storm with winds of 125 mph (range: 111-130mph), central pressure of 955mb. His center is at about 19.1N, 64.4W, and according to the NHC he's moving WNW at 15mph. His eye isn't as clear as I'd expect from a storm of that magnitude (although it is clearing up as I write this). And he just had a 'wobble' (they do that sometimes) which took him from a WNW track to a W track. He's back to WNW, but there's a chance that his eye is going to pass a little closer to the US VIs (maybe around 60-70 miles).
Reports from St. Thomas (from Tom J.):
About 7am their time (6am EST): "Our electric is out already as trees are down pulling wires with them.....not enough wind to justify no power but hurricanes are never accomodating.........as of 655am we are just seeing bands roll in with some gusty wind and light rain till the band passes........on computer bat so keeping it short.......not sure how long internet connection will last so that will depend on you getting messages..........we heard that the next storm is still on track."
9.38am their time:
"at 9:38am it is mostly just sporadic rain showers with some (not much gusty wind)..............as the storm moves westard the VI is getting nearer to the inner band of Earl which has steady winds which is due here around noon..........should be 50mph or so for a few hours...........being on the south side of the eye is saving us from the pounding of the higher force winds...........we hope to LUCK OUT on this one.........any tracking data on the next system in a few days?.........power has been restored for now but will probably go off when the steady winds hit.........I will try communicating when possible"
About 3.30pm their time (it got to me after an hour or so delay):
"Earl is now 63 miles north of us and there is barely any wind or rain here..........the satellite pictures are scary looking but the worse part of the storm so far has been losing electricity.......so being on the south side of this storm is the key to having a big BBQ with plenty of beer while the monster passes........perhaps if the storm coming up on us is this forboding there will be free Ribs and Coronas for all!"
I've also had a couple of queries about if this will head to North Carolina. I know I told you guys in NC to keep an eye on this one a few days ago and I still think that. It's too soon to say. I think it's a possiblity that NC will get clipped, even though the center of the cone takes him out to sea - you are in the cone. Everyone in the cone should keep an eye on him. He's been tracking very slightly farther west than the forecast track from the beginning. There's a small chance he'll slow down (and have a few extra banana daiquiris), which will change a few things. I'll let you know as soon as I have a better idea.
Hurricane Danielle:
Although the NHC still have her as a cat 1 hurricane with estimated winds of 75mph and central pressure of 970mb, I really think she's less than that. She still has a pretty good circulation in the lower troposphere, but in the mid-to-upper levels she's become more like a front. She's moving NE at 16mph. Her center is at 41N, 50W, but she's over water temperatures of 23-24 deg C. Brrr. Too cold to sustain a storm, which requires at least 26.5 deg C. I need to get a cup of tea to warm up just thinking of those temperatures! And there is next to NO convection in this system - just a bunch of rotating clouds with barely enough water to scare a cat! I think she's a Subtropical Storm.
Atlantic Blobette:
This is still looking a little too wonky to be a Tropical Storm, but a Tropical Depression would fit. There is closed circulation and it has improved during the day, and it certainly has way more heavy rain and thunderstorms than Danielle has had for the last day! I estimate the center to be around 15N, 47.6W and it's moving W at 20mph. Water temps are 28 deg C. Still not sure why it's not been upgraded to an 'L' on the NHC map, although it is listed as having a 90% chance and plane and satellite data both indicate that Tropical Storm force winds are detected in a small area of the storm. Maybe they'll go straight to naming it once it's on top of the northern Leeward Islands because those guys already have their hurricane preparations in place and their shutters up so they won't need any advanced warning, right? Sigh.
At the moment it looks like this one will continue west and there's a chance it may pass south of Earl's track. It's not as strong as Earl was at this location (I think), partly maybe because Earl is having a bit of an influence on it.
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Earl: August 30, Update A
Just a quick note on Earl as he is now a cat 2 storm with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) and is pretty much on top of the northern leeward islands. Central pressure is 969mb, and he's moving WNW at 15mph. Location is about 18.1N, 62W. His eye is to the north, but the convection remains strong in all quadrants, with the greater part to the south and west of the eye because of remnant winds from Danielle from the north and east. If he stays on the forecast track, he'll pass north of the US VIs by about 80-90 miles (I agree with Tom J. in that estimate - see below). However, the forecast also has Earl as a major cat 3 hurricane as he passes north of the VIs, so the convection will still be strong, even at that distance. Currently, Tropical Storm force winds are estimated to be within 175 miles from the center, and hurricane force within 50 miles. Circulation is good over the entire troposphere, although still not as strong as Danielle.
I got this from Tom J. (St. Thomas) yesterday evening (his evening): "we are about buttoned down with a few last minute things to complete in the daylight of morning........if the projected path turns to reality we should be OK with the eye over 90 miles to the north..........I'm ready for some FISH AND CHIPS!!"
I know some of you have friends and families on assorted islands in that corner of the Caribbean. I'll post anything else I hear later today.
You can follow the rainbands and see his eye from the radars on the islands. Here's one from the Meteorological service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba:
http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#
Click on either link under St. Maarten (I went with Cappi).
As Earl gets closer to Puerto Rico, you can switch to watching it on the US NWS radar based there: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=jua
Click on the Long Range Images 'Loop' for the long-range movie, and as it gets closer, the Short Range Images, 'Loop' (next to either Composite or Base) for the short-range movie.
More later, including Danielle and the Atlantic Blobette,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
I got this from Tom J. (St. Thomas) yesterday evening (his evening): "we are about buttoned down with a few last minute things to complete in the daylight of morning........if the projected path turns to reality we should be OK with the eye over 90 miles to the north..........I'm ready for some FISH AND CHIPS!!"
I know some of you have friends and families on assorted islands in that corner of the Caribbean. I'll post anything else I hear later today.
You can follow the rainbands and see his eye from the radars on the islands. Here's one from the Meteorological service of the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba:
http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#
Click on either link under St. Maarten (I went with Cappi).
As Earl gets closer to Puerto Rico, you can switch to watching it on the US NWS radar based there: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=jua
Click on the Long Range Images 'Loop' for the long-range movie, and as it gets closer, the Short Range Images, 'Loop' (next to either Composite or Base) for the short-range movie.
More later, including Danielle and the Atlantic Blobette,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Hurricane Danielle, Hurricane Earl, and the Atlantic Blobette: August 29, Update B
Hurricane Earl:
Earl is now a mid-sized cat 1 hurricane with winds of 85mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) and a central pressure of 978mb. He's heading WNW at 14mph and his center is at 17.6N, 59.7W. This means that he will pass just (barely) north of the leeward islands. Planes have been flying into the system and will continue so, so the wind speed and pressure will be based on direct in-situ observations. Interestingly, the forecast for the next 20 hours is for Earl to become a major hurricane when he is just north of the Virgin Islands. I don't know if he'll be a cat 3 or higher but I think there's a very good chance he'll be a cat 2. Convection is pretty good, although still mostly to the south at the moment, and it looks like the wind shear will decrease soon. Surface water temperatures are over 30 deg C, with waters as warm as 26.5 degrees down to 100m. Two factors that might keep him in check for a couple of minutes are the very very limited impact that the islands themselves will have on him, and the surrounding dry air (also limited). Hmm... having looked at the pressure fields, I can see the reasoning for the forecast to make him into a cat 3 just north of the islands. It looks like he will slow down in his forward motion, keeping him over that area for some time, which would then allow him to pick up in intensity without making much progress in space. He has already slowed down. I also wouldn't put it past him to move WNW for a short while, and then move W again but maintaining his speed. One thing to watch for is how much he slows in the next 24 hours.
Hurricane Danielle:
She's still hanging on as a cat 1 hurricane with estimated winds of 80mph and central pressure of 977mb. I don't think she's really that strong - there's no convection to the south side of the center, and whatever there is to the north is not very deep - maybe some rain, but no thunder. She's moving NNE at a really rapid 29mph, and the center is at 38N, 54.5W. She's not forecast to reach land on this side of the pond (i.e. she's not heading in my direction), but I'll continue with brief updates for another couple of days, in case some fish are reading this and have relatives in her path.
Atlantic Blobette:
The NHC still have this listed as an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. As I said earlier, I think this is already a Tropical Depression. There is definitely a closed circulation with winds less than 39 mph. I would say that it's quite weak on the convection side of things, with just some rain but no thunder, but I'm not calling it a Tropical Storm, just a TD. It's that surrounding dry air that's getting into it. But circulation is strong, so there's a chance it will pick up as it continues to move west (at 20mph).
More tomorrow!
Ciao,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Earl is now a mid-sized cat 1 hurricane with winds of 85mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) and a central pressure of 978mb. He's heading WNW at 14mph and his center is at 17.6N, 59.7W. This means that he will pass just (barely) north of the leeward islands. Planes have been flying into the system and will continue so, so the wind speed and pressure will be based on direct in-situ observations. Interestingly, the forecast for the next 20 hours is for Earl to become a major hurricane when he is just north of the Virgin Islands. I don't know if he'll be a cat 3 or higher but I think there's a very good chance he'll be a cat 2. Convection is pretty good, although still mostly to the south at the moment, and it looks like the wind shear will decrease soon. Surface water temperatures are over 30 deg C, with waters as warm as 26.5 degrees down to 100m. Two factors that might keep him in check for a couple of minutes are the very very limited impact that the islands themselves will have on him, and the surrounding dry air (also limited). Hmm... having looked at the pressure fields, I can see the reasoning for the forecast to make him into a cat 3 just north of the islands. It looks like he will slow down in his forward motion, keeping him over that area for some time, which would then allow him to pick up in intensity without making much progress in space. He has already slowed down. I also wouldn't put it past him to move WNW for a short while, and then move W again but maintaining his speed. One thing to watch for is how much he slows in the next 24 hours.
Hurricane Danielle:
She's still hanging on as a cat 1 hurricane with estimated winds of 80mph and central pressure of 977mb. I don't think she's really that strong - there's no convection to the south side of the center, and whatever there is to the north is not very deep - maybe some rain, but no thunder. She's moving NNE at a really rapid 29mph, and the center is at 38N, 54.5W. She's not forecast to reach land on this side of the pond (i.e. she's not heading in my direction), but I'll continue with brief updates for another couple of days, in case some fish are reading this and have relatives in her path.
Atlantic Blobette:
The NHC still have this listed as an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. As I said earlier, I think this is already a Tropical Depression. There is definitely a closed circulation with winds less than 39 mph. I would say that it's quite weak on the convection side of things, with just some rain but no thunder, but I'm not calling it a Tropical Storm, just a TD. It's that surrounding dry air that's getting into it. But circulation is strong, so there's a chance it will pick up as it continues to move west (at 20mph).
More tomorrow!
Ciao,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl and the Atlantic Blobette: August 29, Update A
Tropical Storm Earl:
I thought I'd start with Earl, as it's he's the main feature for the next few days. In the last few hours he's started to look more like a hurricane, and the center seems to be around 17.1N, 57.6W. His maximum winds are 70mph (TS range: 39-73mph) so he's a strong Tropical Storm/borderline hurricane. Central pressure is estimated to be 985mb. He continues to move W at a fairly fast 18mph.
Although he's lacking in organization he certainly does have a lot of convection so there will be some heavy thunderstorms around. The convection is mostly to the south and west of his center of circulation at the moment, because of the wind shear effects from Danielle that I mentioned yesterday. His vorticity has increased though and now reaches the upper troposphere. It's at the sort of levels I see with a cat 1 or 2 hurricane, so I expect he will be officially upgraded in the next advisory later this morning.
It looks to me as if he's going to remain on a westward track and hit the Northern Leeward islands (they are already experiencing his outer bands). There's a small chance he'll make that Northwestward turn and just catch everyone on his south side, but if that's going to happen with that wind shear it means that they will experience the worst of the convective activity. But I think there's a better chance he will continue westward for a little while longer (remain on the southern edge of the cone of possible tracks) and just enter the northern Caribbean and then make that northwestward turn, possibly in the vicinity of the US Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. If he does that, the eye will be to the south and they will get the northern side of the storm - interestingly, if wind shear continues, it means that the worst of the weather will remain to their south (in a fully formed hurricane, this is not usually the case). Of course, Danielle is moving NE and further away, therefore the strong wind shear from the north east will diminish with time, giving him an opportunity to develop on all sides. Regardless of exact path, the islands will get some stormy weather. I heard from Tom J. on St. Thomas that their hurricane preparations will be completed today and the palm trees have already begun to sway. The islands in that corner of the Caribbean are under a hurricane watch or warning.
Hurricane Danielle:
Circulation (vorticity) is still strong throughout the troposphere for Danielle, so she'll remain a hurricane for a little longer. She's slightly stronger than Earl at the moment, however she's about to head into an area of strong wind shear which will knock her socks off. She's currently at 34.6N, 55.4W, with winds of 90mph, making her a cat 1 hurricane (range: 74-95mph) and central pressure of 972mb. She's moving NE at 21mph. Not much more to say about this one for now.
Atlantic Blobette:
Circulation (vorticity) for this blobette has not changed since yesterday, and wind shear remains fairly weak. However it is still surrounded by dry air, which may be the inhibiting factor (for now). Convection has weakend a little in the past few hours, but in my opinion this is a Tropical Depression (not a Tropical Storm yet) and has been since yesterday. The center is somewhere in the region of 13.5N, 36.2W. Again, I don't know what the delay is in upgrading it.
It's your lucky day (!?!?) ... you'll get two updates today!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
I thought I'd start with Earl, as it's he's the main feature for the next few days. In the last few hours he's started to look more like a hurricane, and the center seems to be around 17.1N, 57.6W. His maximum winds are 70mph (TS range: 39-73mph) so he's a strong Tropical Storm/borderline hurricane. Central pressure is estimated to be 985mb. He continues to move W at a fairly fast 18mph.
Although he's lacking in organization he certainly does have a lot of convection so there will be some heavy thunderstorms around. The convection is mostly to the south and west of his center of circulation at the moment, because of the wind shear effects from Danielle that I mentioned yesterday. His vorticity has increased though and now reaches the upper troposphere. It's at the sort of levels I see with a cat 1 or 2 hurricane, so I expect he will be officially upgraded in the next advisory later this morning.
It looks to me as if he's going to remain on a westward track and hit the Northern Leeward islands (they are already experiencing his outer bands). There's a small chance he'll make that Northwestward turn and just catch everyone on his south side, but if that's going to happen with that wind shear it means that they will experience the worst of the convective activity. But I think there's a better chance he will continue westward for a little while longer (remain on the southern edge of the cone of possible tracks) and just enter the northern Caribbean and then make that northwestward turn, possibly in the vicinity of the US Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. If he does that, the eye will be to the south and they will get the northern side of the storm - interestingly, if wind shear continues, it means that the worst of the weather will remain to their south (in a fully formed hurricane, this is not usually the case). Of course, Danielle is moving NE and further away, therefore the strong wind shear from the north east will diminish with time, giving him an opportunity to develop on all sides. Regardless of exact path, the islands will get some stormy weather. I heard from Tom J. on St. Thomas that their hurricane preparations will be completed today and the palm trees have already begun to sway. The islands in that corner of the Caribbean are under a hurricane watch or warning.
Hurricane Danielle:
Circulation (vorticity) is still strong throughout the troposphere for Danielle, so she'll remain a hurricane for a little longer. She's slightly stronger than Earl at the moment, however she's about to head into an area of strong wind shear which will knock her socks off. She's currently at 34.6N, 55.4W, with winds of 90mph, making her a cat 1 hurricane (range: 74-95mph) and central pressure of 972mb. She's moving NE at 21mph. Not much more to say about this one for now.
Atlantic Blobette:
Circulation (vorticity) for this blobette has not changed since yesterday, and wind shear remains fairly weak. However it is still surrounded by dry air, which may be the inhibiting factor (for now). Convection has weakend a little in the past few hours, but in my opinion this is a Tropical Depression (not a Tropical Storm yet) and has been since yesterday. The center is somewhere in the region of 13.5N, 36.2W. Again, I don't know what the delay is in upgrading it.
It's your lucky day (!?!?) ... you'll get two updates today!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl and the Atlantic Blobette: August 28, Update A
Hurricane Danielle:
She was making that northward turn as I was writing yesterday - it wasn't the wine or my eyes! Yay! And she didn't hit anyone. What a great storm! She's now on a NNE trajectory and heading away from Bermuda. In the last few hours her eye has started to vanish, a sure sign she's weakening. I also see this in her convection, which is not as strong as it was earlier. Her center is at 30.5N, 59.6W and she's moving NNE at a nice 13mph. Maximum sustained winds are 105mph now, so she's a cat 2 (range: 96-110mph), and her central pressure is about 970mb.
I've had a few reports from Bermuda throughout the day (from Steve B.). They went something like this:
<this morning sometime> "not a breath"
<5.5 hours later> "still all quiet as a mouse"
<10 minutes after that> "ooh, we have rain"
<2 minutes after that> "false alarm upstairs shower is leaking."
They hardly even got kite-flying weather from the sounds of it, let alone anything else. (Umm... hope the 'rain' damage isn't too bad!)
Tropical Storm Earl:
Earl did intensify a bit since yesterday but weakened a tad again earlier today. He remains a Tropical Storm for now. His winds are currently 60mph (TS range: 39-73mph) with a central pressure of about 999mb. He's moving generally westward at a rather rapid 23mph (actually I'd say he's moving WNW) and his current location is around 16.8N, 54.3W. I'm estimating this location because I think his center is actually fractionally north of the official center location. He is currently forecast to become a cat 1 storm tomorrow and clip the northern Leeward Islands with some of his outer bands.
Convection is picking up now because he is over water temperatures above 29 deg C but also because he's moved over an area where the warm 26.5 deg C water is deeper and extends over the upper 100m of the water column. However, to counteract that he is still surrounded by dry air, and wind shear is picking up. It looks like some of that wind shear is because of his big sister, Danielle! Isn't that interesting? Here we have a battle between the influence of the ocean and that of the atmosphere. I suspect he'll remain as a Tropical Storm for as long as the wind shear is in place. Unfortunately I don't know how long that will stay.
Atlantic Blobette:
It looks to me like this one has decreased in low-level circulation today, but it's not entirely vanished. Convection hasn't changed too much, and it still looks like a blobette. It's moving WNW at 15mph, and the NHC say there's a jolly good chance it'll be a Tropical Depression tonight or tomorrow. I'll wait on saying more about this until it's a TD or TS.
And lest I forget (again), the punchline to the joke from a couple of days ago (http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2010/08/hurricane-danielle-tropical-storm-earl.html) ... it's no longer a string because it's 'a frayed knot' (afraid not). Hee hee hee. Thanks Bill! :-)
That's it for today. Tomorrow, Earl will take center stage although Danielle and the blobette will still be part of the supporting cast.
Toodles,
J.
p.s. my cat is snoring! I don't think I've heard him do that before. Hmm. Wonder if they make those nose anti-snore devices for cats... wonder how badly scratched I'd be if I tried to put one on him.... ;-)
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
She was making that northward turn as I was writing yesterday - it wasn't the wine or my eyes! Yay! And she didn't hit anyone. What a great storm! She's now on a NNE trajectory and heading away from Bermuda. In the last few hours her eye has started to vanish, a sure sign she's weakening. I also see this in her convection, which is not as strong as it was earlier. Her center is at 30.5N, 59.6W and she's moving NNE at a nice 13mph. Maximum sustained winds are 105mph now, so she's a cat 2 (range: 96-110mph), and her central pressure is about 970mb.
I've had a few reports from Bermuda throughout the day (from Steve B.). They went something like this:
<this morning sometime> "not a breath"
<5.5 hours later> "still all quiet as a mouse"
<10 minutes after that> "ooh, we have rain"
<2 minutes after that> "false alarm upstairs shower is leaking."
They hardly even got kite-flying weather from the sounds of it, let alone anything else. (Umm... hope the 'rain' damage isn't too bad!)
Tropical Storm Earl:
Earl did intensify a bit since yesterday but weakened a tad again earlier today. He remains a Tropical Storm for now. His winds are currently 60mph (TS range: 39-73mph) with a central pressure of about 999mb. He's moving generally westward at a rather rapid 23mph (actually I'd say he's moving WNW) and his current location is around 16.8N, 54.3W. I'm estimating this location because I think his center is actually fractionally north of the official center location. He is currently forecast to become a cat 1 storm tomorrow and clip the northern Leeward Islands with some of his outer bands.
Convection is picking up now because he is over water temperatures above 29 deg C but also because he's moved over an area where the warm 26.5 deg C water is deeper and extends over the upper 100m of the water column. However, to counteract that he is still surrounded by dry air, and wind shear is picking up. It looks like some of that wind shear is because of his big sister, Danielle! Isn't that interesting? Here we have a battle between the influence of the ocean and that of the atmosphere. I suspect he'll remain as a Tropical Storm for as long as the wind shear is in place. Unfortunately I don't know how long that will stay.
Atlantic Blobette:
It looks to me like this one has decreased in low-level circulation today, but it's not entirely vanished. Convection hasn't changed too much, and it still looks like a blobette. It's moving WNW at 15mph, and the NHC say there's a jolly good chance it'll be a Tropical Depression tonight or tomorrow. I'll wait on saying more about this until it's a TD or TS.
And lest I forget (again), the punchline to the joke from a couple of days ago (http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2010/08/hurricane-danielle-tropical-storm-earl.html) ... it's no longer a string because it's 'a frayed knot' (afraid not). Hee hee hee. Thanks Bill! :-)
That's it for today. Tomorrow, Earl will take center stage although Danielle and the blobette will still be part of the supporting cast.
Toodles,
J.
p.s. my cat is snoring! I don't think I've heard him do that before. Hmm. Wonder if they make those nose anti-snore devices for cats... wonder how badly scratched I'd be if I tried to put one on him.... ;-)
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Friday, August 27, 2010
Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl & the Atlantic Blobette: August 27, Update A
Hurricane Danielle:
She's a lovely looking storm, and of course a big storm! She's been a category 4 (range: 131-155mph) for most of today, with max winds of 135 mph and a central pressure of 942mb. A plane was sent into the system this afternoon so these values are based on actual real-life in-the-storm observations, not just an estimate (if you missed it, see yesterday's update for that chit-chat). She's moving NW at 9mph and is currently located at 27.3N, 60.3W. The eye has a diameter of around 17-23 miles.
Although she's heading in a NW direction and looks like she's aiming for Bermuda, in the next few hours (maybe 12) we should see her start to move more NNW and then northward as she moves clockwise around a high pressure. Looking at the latest satellite images I'm almost certain she's started to make that turn and is moving NNW, but I have had a glass of wine so it could just be my eyes seeing things! As expected, Bermuda will still get a clip and is under a Tropical Storm watch. The outer bands (clouds only) have just started to reach them. Last I heard, this morning all was fine on the island. Not much wind. Preparations underway. All the normal stuff if a cat 4 hurricane is heading in your direction. And you're on an island.
Convection has decreased a bit, but I think that's just a cycle and it will pick back up. Vorticity is very strong throughout the troposphere. Not much wind shear at the moment. Water temperatures over 29 deg C. For now, I don't see anything that will bring the intensity down. If anything, it may increase further. So basically we're waiting for her to take that northward turn! Any time now would be super.
Tropical Storm Earl:
Our next problem child. He's been a bit lazy and hasn't done much today but he might get some work done tomorrow and start to develop further, which is also what is forecasted. His vorticity is strong in the lowest half of the troposphere and I finally see it beginning to improve in the upper half of the troposphere. His current estimated center is around 15.8N, 46W and he is moving rapidly westward at 20mph. Minimum pressure is estimated to be 1003mb, with winds of 45mph (TS range: 39-73mph). He's still a bit of a messy blob (a slobby blob), which is why I say the center is an estimate - it's difficult to see exactly where it is.
Wind shear is dying down. But there is still dry air on almost all sides that might reign him in a bit. Water temperatures are now 28 deg C, and he's heading into warmer regions with temperatures above 29 deg C. He might clip the northern Leeward Islands when he gets to that side of the Atlantic. Some of them (St. Martin, St. Barthelemy) are already under a Tropical Storm watch. The forecast has him as a cat 1 hurricane in that general area (north of the islands) by Sunday evening.
Atlantic Blobette:
This has improved in circulation today, and the vorticity in the lower troposphere is rather decent. I can't quite assess the convection properly, because it's still quite far east - at around 10N, 25-30W. Not much more to say on this for today. The next name is Fiona.
A bientot!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
She's a lovely looking storm, and of course a big storm! She's been a category 4 (range: 131-155mph) for most of today, with max winds of 135 mph and a central pressure of 942mb. A plane was sent into the system this afternoon so these values are based on actual real-life in-the-storm observations, not just an estimate (if you missed it, see yesterday's update for that chit-chat). She's moving NW at 9mph and is currently located at 27.3N, 60.3W. The eye has a diameter of around 17-23 miles.
Although she's heading in a NW direction and looks like she's aiming for Bermuda, in the next few hours (maybe 12) we should see her start to move more NNW and then northward as she moves clockwise around a high pressure. Looking at the latest satellite images I'm almost certain she's started to make that turn and is moving NNW, but I have had a glass of wine so it could just be my eyes seeing things! As expected, Bermuda will still get a clip and is under a Tropical Storm watch. The outer bands (clouds only) have just started to reach them. Last I heard, this morning all was fine on the island. Not much wind. Preparations underway. All the normal stuff if a cat 4 hurricane is heading in your direction. And you're on an island.
Convection has decreased a bit, but I think that's just a cycle and it will pick back up. Vorticity is very strong throughout the troposphere. Not much wind shear at the moment. Water temperatures over 29 deg C. For now, I don't see anything that will bring the intensity down. If anything, it may increase further. So basically we're waiting for her to take that northward turn! Any time now would be super.
Tropical Storm Earl:
Our next problem child. He's been a bit lazy and hasn't done much today but he might get some work done tomorrow and start to develop further, which is also what is forecasted. His vorticity is strong in the lowest half of the troposphere and I finally see it beginning to improve in the upper half of the troposphere. His current estimated center is around 15.8N, 46W and he is moving rapidly westward at 20mph. Minimum pressure is estimated to be 1003mb, with winds of 45mph (TS range: 39-73mph). He's still a bit of a messy blob (a slobby blob), which is why I say the center is an estimate - it's difficult to see exactly where it is.
Wind shear is dying down. But there is still dry air on almost all sides that might reign him in a bit. Water temperatures are now 28 deg C, and he's heading into warmer regions with temperatures above 29 deg C. He might clip the northern Leeward Islands when he gets to that side of the Atlantic. Some of them (St. Martin, St. Barthelemy) are already under a Tropical Storm watch. The forecast has him as a cat 1 hurricane in that general area (north of the islands) by Sunday evening.
Atlantic Blobette:
This has improved in circulation today, and the vorticity in the lower troposphere is rather decent. I can't quite assess the convection properly, because it's still quite far east - at around 10N, 25-30W. Not much more to say on this for today. The next name is Fiona.
A bientot!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl, and the Atlantic Blobette: August 26, Update A
Hurricane Danielle:
Danielle is certainly a lovely looking cat 2 (range: 96-110mph) storm at the moment, with a beautiful clear eye and lots of lovely swirls and curls. She's currently centered at 25.2N, 57W and is moving NW at 15mph. The good news is that since yesterday, she has indeed been moving slightly to the east of the center of the cone so it looks like her center should pass nicely east of Bermuda. But the storm diameter (at the moment) is somewhere around 300 miles, so they may get outerband stuff - hopefully only clouds and a nice breeze... kite-flying weather perhaps? The forecast track has her continuing NW until tomorrow evening, then curving northward and then northeast and out into the Atlantic and away from Bermuda by Saturday.
The forecast also makes her a cat 3 (range: 111-130mph) soon. Currently her official wind speeds are 110mph, so she's essentially a cat 2/cat 3 storm anyway. Cat 3 or higher is classified a major hurricane. As I said a couple of days ago, the vorticity I see in the upper troposphere is something I usually see with a cat 3 storm, and that's what I see at the moment, so I would agree with a potential upgrade. The two things that may help to temper a further increase though are some moderate wind shear (with a small amount of dry air ahead of her) and that the warm 29 deg C water underneath is really only at the surface - beneath the upper few meters of the water column the temperatures are less than 26 deg C.
Her central pressure is estimated to be 968mb. <Science Alert!> Karen M. asked how they know what the central pressure is in a storm when they don't fly planes through or have other direct observations. The answer is that they don't know the exact central pressure. It's usually an estimate calculated from satellite observations, called the Dvorak Technique (named after Vernon Dvorak). Both visible and infrared satellite imagery is used. For the visible, the assumption is made that storms of a certain intensity (and hence pressure and wind speed) have similar features (e.g. one eye, no nose, no ears, a circular body... Picasso painting anyone? ;-)). Infrared satellite images are used to get the temperature of the clouds in the atmosphere and calculate the intensity from that. By looking at the temperature difference between the clouds in the center of the storm (warm) and those surrounding the center (cool) they can come up with an estimate of the intensity which corresponds to an ideal wind speed (max) and central pressure. So for storms that are far away, both wind speed and central pressure are usually estimates and not exact observations (which means that Danielle may already be a cat 3!). The bigger the temperature difference, the more intense a storm and therefore the lower the central pressure. Planes have flown through storms and made direct observations to improve the values wind speed and central pressure corresponding to the intensity calculated from the Dvorak Technique, so these values of pressure and wind speed are usually in the right ballpark, even with storms that are far away. Of course there are all sorts of caveats to this and it's not an exact science. Some variations include needing to take into account the size of the storm, the ocean basin it is in etc. But I won't go into all that now. That's essentially the central pressure business in a nutshell, without going into too much technical detail - I can if you want though, just let me know :-). There is a lot of information out on the internet on the Dvorak Technique if you want to find out the more technical information for yourself. <End of Science Alert!>
Tropical Storm Earl:
He's currently at 15.2N, 38.8W moving W at 18mph. His wind speed is estimated to be 45mph, making him a weak Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Water temperatures are a nice 27-28 deg C, so certainly warm enough to sustain him. But poor fellow, he's been suffering from a bout of wind shear and dry air, and at the moment he's looking a bit ragged with not much in the way of convection. However, the vorticity is very good in the lower half of the troposphere, so once he gets over these problems he should pick up intensity. Maybe tomorrow. His central pressure is actually 1003mb - this time I think they based it on an observation from a buoy he passed over (or close to). Seems reasonable to me. He'll continue moving westward for the next day or two before turning NW and following Danielle. I have seen some models forecast Earl becoming a major hurricane as well. I'm not convinced of this yet, and won't be until that vorticity improves in the upper half of the troposphere.
Atlantic Blobette:
So this blobette is actually mostly beyond my crystal ball (i.e. not on my maps and charts and stuff, where 'stuff' is technical jargon for 'more maps and charts'), but it's on the NHC site with a 20% probability of developing into a storm in the next 2 days. The reason I mention it is because of the experimental long-term forecast models. I think I mentioned earlier this year that I'd be watching to see how they performed. So far, they are looking promising - at least one predicted Danielle 10 days before she became a storm. It also predicted Earl, and it also thinks this blobette will develop in a day or two. I thought I'd mention it now so we can all watch and see. The blobette is currently way out yonder, near the Cape Verde Islands. There is a little bit of lower-troposphere vorticity, but earlier today there was a lot of convection.
And finally:
A joke for Steve B. on Bermuda (and others of course) from Bill H. (thanks):
(clue: last two words are a verbal pun - I'll write it out tomorrow) :-)
Until tomorrow!
Toodle pip!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Danielle is certainly a lovely looking cat 2 (range: 96-110mph) storm at the moment, with a beautiful clear eye and lots of lovely swirls and curls. She's currently centered at 25.2N, 57W and is moving NW at 15mph. The good news is that since yesterday, she has indeed been moving slightly to the east of the center of the cone so it looks like her center should pass nicely east of Bermuda. But the storm diameter (at the moment) is somewhere around 300 miles, so they may get outerband stuff - hopefully only clouds and a nice breeze... kite-flying weather perhaps? The forecast track has her continuing NW until tomorrow evening, then curving northward and then northeast and out into the Atlantic and away from Bermuda by Saturday.
The forecast also makes her a cat 3 (range: 111-130mph) soon. Currently her official wind speeds are 110mph, so she's essentially a cat 2/cat 3 storm anyway. Cat 3 or higher is classified a major hurricane. As I said a couple of days ago, the vorticity I see in the upper troposphere is something I usually see with a cat 3 storm, and that's what I see at the moment, so I would agree with a potential upgrade. The two things that may help to temper a further increase though are some moderate wind shear (with a small amount of dry air ahead of her) and that the warm 29 deg C water underneath is really only at the surface - beneath the upper few meters of the water column the temperatures are less than 26 deg C.
Her central pressure is estimated to be 968mb. <Science Alert!> Karen M. asked how they know what the central pressure is in a storm when they don't fly planes through or have other direct observations. The answer is that they don't know the exact central pressure. It's usually an estimate calculated from satellite observations, called the Dvorak Technique (named after Vernon Dvorak). Both visible and infrared satellite imagery is used. For the visible, the assumption is made that storms of a certain intensity (and hence pressure and wind speed) have similar features (e.g. one eye, no nose, no ears, a circular body... Picasso painting anyone? ;-)). Infrared satellite images are used to get the temperature of the clouds in the atmosphere and calculate the intensity from that. By looking at the temperature difference between the clouds in the center of the storm (warm) and those surrounding the center (cool) they can come up with an estimate of the intensity which corresponds to an ideal wind speed (max) and central pressure. So for storms that are far away, both wind speed and central pressure are usually estimates and not exact observations (which means that Danielle may already be a cat 3!). The bigger the temperature difference, the more intense a storm and therefore the lower the central pressure. Planes have flown through storms and made direct observations to improve the values wind speed and central pressure corresponding to the intensity calculated from the Dvorak Technique, so these values of pressure and wind speed are usually in the right ballpark, even with storms that are far away. Of course there are all sorts of caveats to this and it's not an exact science. Some variations include needing to take into account the size of the storm, the ocean basin it is in etc. But I won't go into all that now. That's essentially the central pressure business in a nutshell, without going into too much technical detail - I can if you want though, just let me know :-). There is a lot of information out on the internet on the Dvorak Technique if you want to find out the more technical information for yourself. <End of Science Alert!>
Tropical Storm Earl:
He's currently at 15.2N, 38.8W moving W at 18mph. His wind speed is estimated to be 45mph, making him a weak Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Water temperatures are a nice 27-28 deg C, so certainly warm enough to sustain him. But poor fellow, he's been suffering from a bout of wind shear and dry air, and at the moment he's looking a bit ragged with not much in the way of convection. However, the vorticity is very good in the lower half of the troposphere, so once he gets over these problems he should pick up intensity. Maybe tomorrow. His central pressure is actually 1003mb - this time I think they based it on an observation from a buoy he passed over (or close to). Seems reasonable to me. He'll continue moving westward for the next day or two before turning NW and following Danielle. I have seen some models forecast Earl becoming a major hurricane as well. I'm not convinced of this yet, and won't be until that vorticity improves in the upper half of the troposphere.
Atlantic Blobette:
So this blobette is actually mostly beyond my crystal ball (i.e. not on my maps and charts and stuff, where 'stuff' is technical jargon for 'more maps and charts'), but it's on the NHC site with a 20% probability of developing into a storm in the next 2 days. The reason I mention it is because of the experimental long-term forecast models. I think I mentioned earlier this year that I'd be watching to see how they performed. So far, they are looking promising - at least one predicted Danielle 10 days before she became a storm. It also predicted Earl, and it also thinks this blobette will develop in a day or two. I thought I'd mention it now so we can all watch and see. The blobette is currently way out yonder, near the Cape Verde Islands. There is a little bit of lower-troposphere vorticity, but earlier today there was a lot of convection.
And finally:
A joke for Steve B. on Bermuda (and others of course) from Bill H. (thanks):
A string walks into a bar and asks for a drink. The bartender says: "We don't serve strings." The string goes to a table and musses up his hair. He walks back to the bar and asks for a drink. The bartender says: "Hey, didn't I tell you that we don't serve strings? Are you a string? "
The string says: "No, I'm afraid not."
(clue: last two words are a verbal pun - I'll write it out tomorrow) :-)
Until tomorrow!
Toodle pip!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl: August 25, Update A
Oh dear, it's a bit late over here so I'm not going to spend much time on this entry ... which is lucky for the NHC, because I've not been overly impressed with their call about Tropical Storm Earl!
Hurricane Danielle:
After intensifying back to a hurricane yesterday, she's had pretty steady winds of about 85mph for most of the day today making her a solid cat 1 storm (wind range: 74-95mph). She's currently at about 21.4N, 53.1W, with a central pressure estimated to be at 982mb, and she's moving NW at a pretty fast 17mph. She made a more northward turn today (compared to the WNW track she's been on for the past few days). I think she might track a little to the east (or right) of the center of cone for the next few hours (day). The forecast calls for her to be close to or even possibly over Bermuda on Sunday. I'm not sure it'll be a direct hit but more of a clip - the outer bands might pass over them. That's still a few days away, so we'll see. Clearly the stress of preparing is getting to them (not), as I got this from Steve B. on Bermuda today:
Two atoms are drinking at the bar. Suddenly one says to the other, "I've just lost one of my electrons!"
"Are you sure?" asks the other.
"Yes," replied the first atom. "I'm positive."
(hee hee - anyone got a joke to send back?)
Back to our lovely Danielle. She's been experiencing some wind shear, which has helped to maintain her as a cat 1 storm. Also, the vorticity (circulation) in the upper troposphere decreased today which also contributed to her maintaining cat 1 status. However, I just had a quick look and the upper level vorticity has started to look good again so there's a chance she might strengthen some more tomorrow, despite the wind shear and dry air in front of her. Water temperatures remain warm at around 28-29 deg C. In this case, intensity fluctuations are completely dependent on what's going on in the atmosphere.
Tropical Storm Earl:
Well. What can I say? Some of you might remember a few years ago when the NHC seemed to consistently wait until a system was almost a Tropical Storm, then upgrade it to a Tropical Depression with the 'forecast' that it would shortly become a Tropical Storm. Remember that? I do, cos I ranted about it back then. Well, here we are again. There is no way this went from being a 'newly formed' Tropical Depression to a fully fledged Tropical Storm within two advisories - it was so clearly a Tropical Depression yesterday, and it sure looked like a Tropical Storm before they upgraded it to a Tropical Depression. Grrr. (Isn't it a good thing that it's late over here and I don't have time for a proper "chat" about this? ;-)). I have no idea why it took them so long to call this one!!
Anyway, our Tropical Storm Earl is here now (well, to be pedantic, he's out there now). His center is in the region of 14.4N, 32.3W and he's moving generally westward at 16mph. Winds are 40mph (officially - I think they might be a little stronger) (TS range: 39-73mph) and central pressure is 1006mb. At one point today, the convection in this 'pre-Depression' blob was looking almost the same as Danielle at that time. The vorticity (circulation) is very strong in the lower half of the troposphere (technical term for the lowest section of our atmosphere), but unlike Danielle there isn't anything in the higher levels. He's going to stay on that westward track for a couple more days and at the moment I'd say there's a good chance he'll closely follow the track Danielle is on after that.
More news from the 'we-finally-found-the-2010-hurricane-season' Atlantic tomorrow!
Night night!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Hurricane Danielle:
After intensifying back to a hurricane yesterday, she's had pretty steady winds of about 85mph for most of the day today making her a solid cat 1 storm (wind range: 74-95mph). She's currently at about 21.4N, 53.1W, with a central pressure estimated to be at 982mb, and she's moving NW at a pretty fast 17mph. She made a more northward turn today (compared to the WNW track she's been on for the past few days). I think she might track a little to the east (or right) of the center of cone for the next few hours (day). The forecast calls for her to be close to or even possibly over Bermuda on Sunday. I'm not sure it'll be a direct hit but more of a clip - the outer bands might pass over them. That's still a few days away, so we'll see. Clearly the stress of preparing is getting to them (not), as I got this from Steve B. on Bermuda today:
Two atoms are drinking at the bar. Suddenly one says to the other, "I've just lost one of my electrons!"
"Are you sure?" asks the other.
"Yes," replied the first atom. "I'm positive."
(hee hee - anyone got a joke to send back?)
Back to our lovely Danielle. She's been experiencing some wind shear, which has helped to maintain her as a cat 1 storm. Also, the vorticity (circulation) in the upper troposphere decreased today which also contributed to her maintaining cat 1 status. However, I just had a quick look and the upper level vorticity has started to look good again so there's a chance she might strengthen some more tomorrow, despite the wind shear and dry air in front of her. Water temperatures remain warm at around 28-29 deg C. In this case, intensity fluctuations are completely dependent on what's going on in the atmosphere.
Tropical Storm Earl:
Well. What can I say? Some of you might remember a few years ago when the NHC seemed to consistently wait until a system was almost a Tropical Storm, then upgrade it to a Tropical Depression with the 'forecast' that it would shortly become a Tropical Storm. Remember that? I do, cos I ranted about it back then. Well, here we are again. There is no way this went from being a 'newly formed' Tropical Depression to a fully fledged Tropical Storm within two advisories - it was so clearly a Tropical Depression yesterday, and it sure looked like a Tropical Storm before they upgraded it to a Tropical Depression. Grrr. (Isn't it a good thing that it's late over here and I don't have time for a proper "chat" about this? ;-)). I have no idea why it took them so long to call this one!!
Anyway, our Tropical Storm Earl is here now (well, to be pedantic, he's out there now). His center is in the region of 14.4N, 32.3W and he's moving generally westward at 16mph. Winds are 40mph (officially - I think they might be a little stronger) (TS range: 39-73mph) and central pressure is 1006mb. At one point today, the convection in this 'pre-Depression' blob was looking almost the same as Danielle at that time. The vorticity (circulation) is very strong in the lower half of the troposphere (technical term for the lowest section of our atmosphere), but unlike Danielle there isn't anything in the higher levels. He's going to stay on that westward track for a couple more days and at the moment I'd say there's a good chance he'll closely follow the track Danielle is on after that.
More news from the 'we-finally-found-the-2010-hurricane-season' Atlantic tomorrow!
Night night!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Tropical Storm Danielle and Atlantic Blob: August 24, Update A
Tropical Storm Danielle:
Hee hee... I knew today was going to be a fun storm-filled day! and I also knew I shouldn't have written that girls are well-behaved because that was just asking for trouble, wasn't it? Well I always was more inclined towards the phrase "well-behaved women rarely make history" (Laurel Thatcher Ulrich). ;-)
Today Danielle threw the hurricane forecasting community a curve-ball and everyone is running around trying to work it out. Don't you love it when that sort of thing happens? She was developing quite nicely and even had moments where we could see a lovely eye earlier today, and then something changed. No-one knows exactly what (yet), but it resulted in her falling apart quite drastically! Isn't it cool that there are still such big mysteries out there waiting to be solved? :-)
Apparently the dry air that I thought yesterday wouldn't have much of an impact was the culprit. Over a handful of hours, it brought her down from a Cat 2 hurricane with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) to a Tropical Storm with winds of 70mph. We've seen dry air destroy storms before, but the unusual thing here was that her center was so well insulated by moist air (or so it seemed) that it didn't seem likely to have this much of a punch. Clearly something went on in the layers within a storm that we can't see with a satellite. Or (and I'm speculating here), maybe it was something to do with her forward motion, which was really really fast for a cat 2 storm. I'll have to do some digging on this. Oh I do like a good real-life mystery. :-)
Before I carry on, her vital statistics from the NHC 5pm advisory: she's at around 16.5N, 48.2W with a central pressure of 993mb. Winds are at about 70 mph (so she's a strong Tropical Storm) and she's moving WNW at 18mph.
Although she's a TS again, there's a very good chance she'll regain strength. Her vorticity is strong throughout the entire troposphere. In fact it's strengthened since yesterday which means that the basic storm structure is good, even if she's struggling with the convection issue a little because of surrounding dry air. This is the sort of structure I'd expect to see with a major cat 3 hurricane. She's over water that's warm enough to sustain her (over 29 deg C) and there is only a little in the way of wind shear. Assuming whatever conditions that caused her to fall apart don't re-appear, I think she'll restrengthen. This is in agreement with the NHC. Having said that, there is still some dry air in front of her, to her north and west. So restrengthening depends a bit on if she can again wrap herself in a blanket of water vapor or whether the dry air will continue to get into the center. I suspect she'll re-strengthen.
As for track, as I said yesterday she had two options - to move towards to west or to slow down. She certainly didn't slow down but has, indeed, been moving on the western side of the center of the cone, so the forecast track has shifted westward and as of today Bermuda is within the cone. I hope you guys are getting ready for a visit! Hopefully you'll just get some light rain and a bit of breezy weather.
Atlantic Blob:
This little blob is still just out of sight for most of my maps. Although I can now see the vorticity properly, I can't see how strong the convection is yet. The circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere, but nothing in the higher levels. The NHC have had it at a 90% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression for the past couple of advisories! I think it's already a TD, so I don't know what they are waiting for. It doesn't mean it's a named Tropical Storm yet, but it looks like it has closed circulation.
What an interesting day! (if you are a stormaholic like me). Can't wait to see what she'll do tomorrow... oh... er... I'm supposed to be telling you what she'll do tomorrow, aren't I? ;-)
Ciao for now!
J.
p.s. meant to say this a few entries ago, but if you have any questions please let me know. I assume people have been reading this for a while, so I throw in jargon words like 'troposphere' and er 'storm' ;-), having explained them in earlier entries. But if you missed it, please ask.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Hee hee... I knew today was going to be a fun storm-filled day! and I also knew I shouldn't have written that girls are well-behaved because that was just asking for trouble, wasn't it? Well I always was more inclined towards the phrase "well-behaved women rarely make history" (Laurel Thatcher Ulrich). ;-)
Today Danielle threw the hurricane forecasting community a curve-ball and everyone is running around trying to work it out. Don't you love it when that sort of thing happens? She was developing quite nicely and even had moments where we could see a lovely eye earlier today, and then something changed. No-one knows exactly what (yet), but it resulted in her falling apart quite drastically! Isn't it cool that there are still such big mysteries out there waiting to be solved? :-)
Apparently the dry air that I thought yesterday wouldn't have much of an impact was the culprit. Over a handful of hours, it brought her down from a Cat 2 hurricane with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) to a Tropical Storm with winds of 70mph. We've seen dry air destroy storms before, but the unusual thing here was that her center was so well insulated by moist air (or so it seemed) that it didn't seem likely to have this much of a punch. Clearly something went on in the layers within a storm that we can't see with a satellite. Or (and I'm speculating here), maybe it was something to do with her forward motion, which was really really fast for a cat 2 storm. I'll have to do some digging on this. Oh I do like a good real-life mystery. :-)
Before I carry on, her vital statistics from the NHC 5pm advisory: she's at around 16.5N, 48.2W with a central pressure of 993mb. Winds are at about 70 mph (so she's a strong Tropical Storm) and she's moving WNW at 18mph.
Although she's a TS again, there's a very good chance she'll regain strength. Her vorticity is strong throughout the entire troposphere. In fact it's strengthened since yesterday which means that the basic storm structure is good, even if she's struggling with the convection issue a little because of surrounding dry air. This is the sort of structure I'd expect to see with a major cat 3 hurricane. She's over water that's warm enough to sustain her (over 29 deg C) and there is only a little in the way of wind shear. Assuming whatever conditions that caused her to fall apart don't re-appear, I think she'll restrengthen. This is in agreement with the NHC. Having said that, there is still some dry air in front of her, to her north and west. So restrengthening depends a bit on if she can again wrap herself in a blanket of water vapor or whether the dry air will continue to get into the center. I suspect she'll re-strengthen.
As for track, as I said yesterday she had two options - to move towards to west or to slow down. She certainly didn't slow down but has, indeed, been moving on the western side of the center of the cone, so the forecast track has shifted westward and as of today Bermuda is within the cone. I hope you guys are getting ready for a visit! Hopefully you'll just get some light rain and a bit of breezy weather.
Atlantic Blob:
This little blob is still just out of sight for most of my maps. Although I can now see the vorticity properly, I can't see how strong the convection is yet. The circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere, but nothing in the higher levels. The NHC have had it at a 90% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression for the past couple of advisories! I think it's already a TD, so I don't know what they are waiting for. It doesn't mean it's a named Tropical Storm yet, but it looks like it has closed circulation.
What an interesting day! (if you are a stormaholic like me). Can't wait to see what she'll do tomorrow... oh... er... I'm supposed to be telling you what she'll do tomorrow, aren't I? ;-)
Ciao for now!
J.
p.s. meant to say this a few entries ago, but if you have any questions please let me know. I assume people have been reading this for a while, so I throw in jargon words like 'troposphere' and er 'storm' ;-), having explained them in earlier entries. But if you missed it, please ask.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Monday, August 23, 2010
Hurricane Danielle and another Atlantic Blob: August 23, Update A
Hurricane Danielle:
Girls are so well-behaved, aren't they? ;-) Until now (at least) Danielle has been doing as forecast by everyone, which obviously means she must be well-behaved. Oh, and thank you for enquiring, but no, I wasn't feeling ill when I wrote that I agreed with the NHC yesterday... but I might have been confused after experiencing a weekend of warm (!) sunshine (!!) in Manchester, England. ;-)
Danielle developed into a Tropical Storm yesterday (TS wind range: 39-73mph), and has just been upgraded to a hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph. Category 1 hurricane winds: 74-95mph. Her central pressure is estimated to be 987mb and she's currently centered at around 15.4N, 41.5W. Yesterday she took a slightly northwestward turn, but all day today she's been keeping to the west of the center of the cone, so at the moment she's moving WNW at a rapid 17mph.
Convection remains very strong, as does the vorticity (circulation). The circulation is *really* strong in the lower half of the troposphere. There's still some circulation in the upper half of the troposphere, but it was a bit weaker than yesterday because of a bit of wind shear. However, this looks like it will change and get better organized, so I think this storm will slowly continue to develop. Water temperatures are 28-29 deg C. There is some dry air still to the north but I don't think that will have much impact.
Although the track continues to take her WNW and recurve out in the Atlantic to the eastern side of Bermuda, I think she might stay on the western side of the center of the cone and could clip Bermuda. The other scenario that is possible is that she'll slow down. The reason for both of these is because there's a high pressure system in front of her, which will cause her to move westward or will slow down her forward movement. In the northern hemisphere storms move in a clockwise direction around an area of high pressure or slow down until the pressure fields change - you can think of the slowing down part as a ball (storm) rolling up a hill (high pressure).
Oh, and look, I used some more 'parentheses'! ;-) which is a nice, if somewhat obviously contrived, segueway to a slight correction on my last entry. The plural of 'parenthesis' is parentheses. (Thanks to K.F. for pointing that out). The word is of Greek origin, and I found this saying from 1796: "The art of the parenthesis is one of the greatest secrets of eloquence in Society" (Sebastien-Roch Nicolas De Chamfort). Clearly I have a long way to go before I achieve mastery of eloquence in Society! Still, it gives me something to aim for. ;-)
Altantic Blob:
In another interesting development, a blob came off the coast of Africa today and almost immediately developed a nice circulation. It's just off the eastern edge of most of my maps (and my crystal ball), so I can't say too much more about it other than it looked like it was in better shape than Danielle when she came off the coast, and it has a lot of convection. This is the next African Easterly Wave after Danielle, so we can see the edge of it in some images that show Danielle. Tomorrow it should be more visible and I'll be able to get a better assessment hopefully. The next name is Earl.
Before I sign off, I wanted to follow up on "jejune" from a couple of days ago. I know some of you looked it up, but in case the 'jej' page was missing from your dictionaries, it means dull and not interesting (which is how I was using it). It also means juvenile, immature and childish. So I suppose the new Atlantic Blob could be a jejune system. :-) I got this note from Edward M. (thanks!) about a word that is similar in spelling (I hope you scrabble players out there are making notes!): "jejuni, which is a type of food poisoning you get from untreated water or raw food. Campylobacter jejuni. I'd read about it in a CDC pamphlet 20 years ago ... And it sounds anything but jejune (in the dull sense of the word).". Yup. Best not to get those two confused!
Ok, that's it for today. Tomorrow will be another fun storm-filled day!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Girls are so well-behaved, aren't they? ;-) Until now (at least) Danielle has been doing as forecast by everyone, which obviously means she must be well-behaved. Oh, and thank you for enquiring, but no, I wasn't feeling ill when I wrote that I agreed with the NHC yesterday... but I might have been confused after experiencing a weekend of warm (!) sunshine (!!) in Manchester, England. ;-)
Danielle developed into a Tropical Storm yesterday (TS wind range: 39-73mph), and has just been upgraded to a hurricane with sustained winds of 75mph. Category 1 hurricane winds: 74-95mph. Her central pressure is estimated to be 987mb and she's currently centered at around 15.4N, 41.5W. Yesterday she took a slightly northwestward turn, but all day today she's been keeping to the west of the center of the cone, so at the moment she's moving WNW at a rapid 17mph.
Convection remains very strong, as does the vorticity (circulation). The circulation is *really* strong in the lower half of the troposphere. There's still some circulation in the upper half of the troposphere, but it was a bit weaker than yesterday because of a bit of wind shear. However, this looks like it will change and get better organized, so I think this storm will slowly continue to develop. Water temperatures are 28-29 deg C. There is some dry air still to the north but I don't think that will have much impact.
Although the track continues to take her WNW and recurve out in the Atlantic to the eastern side of Bermuda, I think she might stay on the western side of the center of the cone and could clip Bermuda. The other scenario that is possible is that she'll slow down. The reason for both of these is because there's a high pressure system in front of her, which will cause her to move westward or will slow down her forward movement. In the northern hemisphere storms move in a clockwise direction around an area of high pressure or slow down until the pressure fields change - you can think of the slowing down part as a ball (storm) rolling up a hill (high pressure).
Oh, and look, I used some more 'parentheses'! ;-) which is a nice, if somewhat obviously contrived, segueway to a slight correction on my last entry. The plural of 'parenthesis' is parentheses. (Thanks to K.F. for pointing that out). The word is of Greek origin, and I found this saying from 1796: "The art of the parenthesis is one of the greatest secrets of eloquence in Society" (Sebastien-Roch Nicolas De Chamfort). Clearly I have a long way to go before I achieve mastery of eloquence in Society! Still, it gives me something to aim for. ;-)
Altantic Blob:
In another interesting development, a blob came off the coast of Africa today and almost immediately developed a nice circulation. It's just off the eastern edge of most of my maps (and my crystal ball), so I can't say too much more about it other than it looked like it was in better shape than Danielle when she came off the coast, and it has a lot of convection. This is the next African Easterly Wave after Danielle, so we can see the edge of it in some images that show Danielle. Tomorrow it should be more visible and I'll be able to get a better assessment hopefully. The next name is Earl.
Before I sign off, I wanted to follow up on "jejune" from a couple of days ago. I know some of you looked it up, but in case the 'jej' page was missing from your dictionaries, it means dull and not interesting (which is how I was using it). It also means juvenile, immature and childish. So I suppose the new Atlantic Blob could be a jejune system. :-) I got this note from Edward M. (thanks!) about a word that is similar in spelling (I hope you scrabble players out there are making notes!): "jejuni, which is a type of food poisoning you get from untreated water or raw food. Campylobacter jejuni. I'd read about it in a CDC pamphlet 20 years ago ... And it sounds anything but jejune (in the dull sense of the word).". Yup. Best not to get those two confused!
Ok, that's it for today. Tomorrow will be another fun storm-filled day!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
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