Saturday, August 28, 2010

Hurricane Danielle, Tropical Storm Earl and the Atlantic Blobette: August 28, Update A

Hurricane Danielle:
She was making that northward turn as I was writing yesterday - it wasn't the wine or my eyes! Yay! And she didn't hit anyone. What a great storm! She's now on a NNE trajectory and heading away from Bermuda. In the last few hours her eye has started to vanish, a sure sign she's weakening. I also see this in her convection, which is not as strong as it was earlier. Her center is at 30.5N, 59.6W and she's moving NNE at a nice 13mph. Maximum sustained winds are 105mph now, so she's a cat 2 (range: 96-110mph), and her central pressure is about 970mb.
I've had a few reports from Bermuda throughout the day (from Steve B.). They went something like this:
<this morning sometime> "not a breath"
<5.5 hours later> "still all quiet as a mouse"
<10 minutes after that> "ooh, we have rain"
<2 minutes after that> "false alarm upstairs shower is leaking." 
They hardly even got kite-flying weather from the sounds of it, let alone anything else. (Umm... hope the 'rain' damage isn't too bad!) 
Tropical Storm Earl:
Earl did intensify a bit since yesterday but weakened a tad again earlier today. He remains a Tropical Storm for now. His winds are currently 60mph (TS range: 39-73mph) with a central pressure of about 999mb. He's moving generally westward at a rather rapid 23mph (actually I'd say he's moving WNW) and his current location is around 16.8N, 54.3W. I'm estimating this location because I think his center is actually fractionally north of the official center location. He is currently forecast to become a cat 1 storm tomorrow and clip the northern Leeward Islands with some of his outer bands. 
Convection is picking up now because he is over water temperatures above 29 deg C but also because he's moved over an area where the warm 26.5 deg C water is deeper and extends over the upper 100m of the water column. However, to counteract that he is still surrounded by dry air, and wind shear is picking up. It looks like some of that wind shear is because of his big sister, Danielle! Isn't that interesting? Here we have a battle between the influence of the ocean and that of the atmosphere. I suspect he'll remain as a Tropical Storm for as long as the wind shear is in place. Unfortunately I don't know how long that will stay. 
Atlantic Blobette:
It looks to me like this one has decreased in low-level circulation today, but it's not entirely vanished. Convection hasn't changed too much, and it still looks like a blobette. It's moving WNW at 15mph, and the NHC say there's a jolly good chance it'll be a Tropical Depression tonight or tomorrow. I'll wait on saying more about this until it's a TD or TS.
And lest I forget (again), the punchline to the joke from a couple of days ago ( ... it's no longer a string because it's 'a frayed knot' (afraid not). Hee hee hee. Thanks Bill!  :-)
That's it for today. Tomorrow, Earl will take center stage although Danielle and the blobette will still be part of the supporting cast.

p.s. my cat is snoring! I don't think I've heard him do that before. Hmm. Wonder if they make those nose anti-snore devices for cats... wonder how badly scratched I'd be if I tried to put one on him.... ;-) 
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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