December 2: Second attempt at last day of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

<trumpets> I hereby formally declare that *this* is it…the last day of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season! J

The Atlantic blobette is fizzling out in the face of strong wind shear and cold water temperatures. Quite right too. What on earth was Mother Nature thinking? There is holiday music in the air! ‘Tis the glitter and light season, not the hurricane season!

Before I begin my final remarks, a quick note on Typhoon Bopha over in the western Pacific... the storm passed south of Palau late yesterday/earlier today. I think it was probably a cat 2 storm (range:  96-110mph) as it passed by. The eye vanished earlier today, after it’s interaction with Palau, which means it dropped down to being a Tropical Storm/weak cat 1 (maybe around 85-90mph winds). However the eye has just re-developed,

as it continues on its track towards the southern Philippines, which means it is now a strong cat 1 (90-95mph) - officially they say it is a cat 3 storm at the moment (range: 111-130mph)!

May I just say: Thank goodness that the overly busy 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season is finally over!! J J

The final official tally was 19 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes, but only 2 major hurricanes - Michael and Sandy, when she was in the Caribbean (major hurricanes are cat 3 or higher). This exceeded all predictions of the season (made before, and even revised during, the season)!

NOAA had forecast 9-15 named storms, of which 4-8 would become hurricanes, and 1-3 would be major. An average season has about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes… so they were really hedging their bets on an average season. Oopsy. They changed this prediction in August (just over two months into the season) to 12-17 named storms, 5-8 hurricanes, 2-3 major hurricanes. Oopsy again. They weren’t alone in underestimating the season. A well-known private company predicted 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Colorado State University had forecast 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The UK Met Office had forecast 7 – 13 named storms. If some of those ‘made-up’ wishy-washy storms in the early part of the season hadn’t been named, these numbers would probably have been about right.  

Goodness me but wasn’t some of the official forecasting in the first half of this season a load of codswallop? In fact, like the entire 6-film Star Wars saga, the first half was a tad irksome. First, it really did look like someone, somewhere, was concerned about getting the right numbers to match the official forecast so they were naming storms willy-nilly, including upgrading Chris, who lasted only ~3 days in total, to a hurricane (for less than 6 hours). No wonder they ‘exceeded’ their seasonal ‘prediction’! Second, the track forecasts were all over the place! Tropical Storm Debbie was forecast to make landfall in Texas, and two days later made landfall north of Tampa Bay in Florida! Third, the intensity. Eeek. Where to begin? I think our ability to predict the intensity isn’t as bad as it was made out to be - if actual data is used (gasp, horror!) and we don’t rely only on models! ...  “use the Force Luke”. It does mean you have to understand what nature is providing of course. Always a bit of a challenge.

The last half of the season was different  – did someone find the light switch part way through Hurricane Isaac (forecast to hit Tampa Bay during the RNC but just brought a bit of rain on its way to southern Louisiana)? After that, the NHC track forecasts improved dramatically, to the point where I was  finally convinced that the 2 day track forecast was really excellent (i.e. better than mine ;-)). The good news is that if that continues in the next season, I can just sit back and refer to them for the last two days of track. Of course they still have a way to go on intensity so I can’t quite retire completely! (yet ;-)).

But that’s enough of that! It is time to say THANK YOU! Thank you for continuing to read my profound, witty, charming, entertaining, fabulous, hilarious, and clearly quite modest and humble writings! Thank you for telling your friends and family (I assume they are still your friends and family? ;-))… this season my blog website alone has had over 22,000 hits (current tally is 43, 550), with a few tens of thousands reading via other means too. Obviously you all have discerning and refined tastes, are intelligent and literate, and have the best sense of humour! ;-) This will be the 599^th entry on my website… practically a book that Tolstoy would be envious of! ;-)

My sincere thanks to those who sent me jokes, asked questions, and sent comments, and especially to those of you who were in the path of storms and continued to send updates, photos and videos! I hope that everyone has recovered, or is on the path to recovery, from assorted storms that hit so many parts of the Caribbean, the Gulf and Atlantic, and the eastern seaboard this year. And thanks again to those who are always there to help before, during, and after a storm has hit! I’d also like to thank all those who helped to bring this to you: to those who provided the data via planes, on the ground (or over the water), and by satellites; to the folks at the NHC for all their hard work and for giving me something to grumble about ;-) ; and to my great technical support team… Doug M. at the CMS/USF (http://www.marine.usf.edu) in Florida for helping with the listserve, to Chris H. in Georgia and Ben A. for help with the website. Last but not least, thanks to my family and friends for your usual attempts at keeping me sane and supplied with cheese (hmmm… cheese J)… and especially thanks to my husband, Ben Alpi, for being understanding of all the hours I’ve spent on my ‘hobby’, in my own little world, writing and analyzing. By the way, for those who are into westerns (or even if you are not), he has just completed a lovely short epic western, Cowboy Creed. Check out the trailer on his production company’s (Runic Films) website:  http://runicfilms.com/.

Now it is time to hibernate for the year! <yawn> You can follow me on twitter, where I expect I will continue to be a twit (JyovianStorm on twitter). I also have one or two other things I have to do during the next six months… like drink wine, eat cheese, have a cup of tea, eat some ice cream (probably not all at the same time though). I wish you all a safe and happy holiday season, a safe and happy non-hurricane season, a safe and happy end-of-the-world-day-according-to-the-Mayan-Calendar-but-not-really, and a very merry New Year!!  I’ll be back in 2013 (and hopefully no sooner, unless they confirm the Higgs-Boson, aliens find us, or something along those lines)!

TOODLE PIP!!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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November 30: Final Day of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

November 30: Final Day of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season! … Or is it? <dun-dun-dun>(dramatic music!)(dramatic pause!)

Can you believe it? There’s a blobette on the NHC website!

Either someone didn’t clean their screen or we lost the end-of-the-season memo to Mother Nature. Again. Time to have a glass of wine and some wenslydale cheese. Again. (any excuse! ;-))

About this Atlantic Blobette: She is currently at around 25N, 42W. There is some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere and a low pressure front/trough in the upper levels of the troposphere which means this one could have a chance of getting stronger. However, the wind shear is strong and the water temperatures here are around 23-24 deg C, which are rather on the cool side for a proper, grown-up storm. But she is trying. The convection has improved during the day today. If she develops it is purely because of the upper atmosphere, which means she would not be a tropical storm but a sub-tropical storm. The next name is Valerie.  

You may be thinking that it’s a little bit odd to be wearing cute winter boots, a wooly hat, and gloves and *still* reading about the Atlantic hurricane season. It is a tad unusual to have a December Atlantic storm, but remember the reason we say the hurricane season is between June 1 and November 30 is because 97% of all storms develop during that time. If Valerie develops, she’s one of the 3% (see http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2012/06/june-1-start-of-2012-atlantic-hurricane.html for my plot of how storms are distributed throughout the year).

But if you think this is odd, things are even odder in the western Pacific! There is a preeettyyy strong Typhoon that has developed within 5 deg of the equator!!! Typhoon Bopha, currently at 4.5N,  has a good eye:

(satellite image from the NRL Monterey Navy site) and winds estimated to be about 130mph which makes it strong cat 3/weak cat 4 storm. It’s heading towards Palau (on Sunday), which apparently hasn’t seen a major Typhoon since 1991. Eek! After that it is heading towards the Philippines (next Weds), where it is projected to be a category 1 storm. A storm forming within 5 deg of the equator is very rare, but not unheard of. The storm that developed closest to the equator was Typhoon Vamei, which formed on 26 December, 2001, at 1.4 deg N of the equator in the South China Sea and made landfall in Malaysia with strong tropical storm/weak cat 1 winds.

With all this going on, how can one possibly go into hibernation for the off-season today?? I guess I’ll be back tomorrow. Oh lucky, lucky you! ;-)

Ciao!
J.  

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Sandy, the final entry: November 1, Update A

My last word on Sandy: good luck in the clean-up and recovery process. Thanks to all those who worked through this and every other storm such as the emergency workers, and those work on after the storms have gone by, such as the utility companies. I hear that a Florida power company van was seen in New Jersey today. You are all very much appreciated!

Today marks the start of the last month of the 2012 hurricane season. I hope someone has told Mother Nature this! Remember back in 2005, when the ‘end of the season’ memo got lost? No? Well Edward in Florida reminded me of The Saga of Epsilon and Zeta: http://xkcd.com/1126/. J (A spot check shows words directly taken from NHC advisories of the time!! – thanks to Karen for the heads up on that).

I’ll be back if we have ‘Valerie’ out there.  Until then, don’t forget to enjoy a nice cup of tea. J

Tally ho!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Sandy, The Aftermath: October 31, Update A

Obviously a Full Moon week! Higher than usual tides on Monday night (actual full moon) when Sandy made landfall; Disney bought Star Wars (Tuesday); and Zombies having drinks with Kermit and Miss Piggy, while bananas in tutus go running around looking for sweeties (Wednesday)! (Not quite a sentence I thought I’d ever write).   

Here are a couple of photos taken by M. Ricky, a supervisor on the subway system in NYC (sent via Jose in Florida – thank you both!):

The first is looking down on a station on the Sea Beach line, the second is the 86^th station on the “N” Sea Beach line. It took me a moment to figure out what I was looking at in the first one. That  is just a small sample of the surreal images coming out of the eastern half of the US. Unfortunately the death toll from Sandy continues to rise. My condolences to those who lost loved ones from the Carribbean to Canada! L And to those who sustained damage, that is not good, but I am glad you are ok.

As the clean up from Sandy really gets into gear, on the other side of the world Tropical Cyclone Nilam made landfall earlier today, just south of Chennai in southern India. Although winds were only 65mph, making her a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm, she would have pushed water onshore in Chennai. Here was the scene from Staten Island yesterday (credit unknown):

and the one off Chennai today (credit BBC):

Tanker grounding galore!

I, too, have almost ground to a halt in talking about Sandy. She was not really a tropical system by the time she made landfall. There is an amazing cross-sectional image of the inside of Sandy, taken with a satellite called ‘Cloudsat’, on this website: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79577. The discussion under the image is rather good too, if you are interested in the scientific and techincal side of the storm.

As every seventh news item is about Star Wars or Disney (election, what election?), here is my nod to Halloween:

I have one more item to share… tomorrow.
Night night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Extratropical Storm Sandy: October 30, Update A

The remains of the-storm-formerly-known-as-Sandy are centered around a location ENE of Pittsburg in Pennsylvania. She has winds of 40mph, and is moving NW at around 8 mph, heading for north/western New York and then up to Canada. Central pressure is 992mb.

I have assorted personal reports and photos of flooding, trees falling on houses, cars submerged, and even a video of a transformer exploding (thanks to Joe in Long Island). Sameer, our on-the-ground reporter in New York yesterday, managed to get out of Manhattan today after walking down 21 flights of stairs with his family, including a toddler and a 3 week old. I’m sure you have all heard in the news. Almost 60 died from Sandy in the Caribbean, another 40 so far in the US. This will be the last time we have a storm named Sandy, I’m pretty sure about that!

Some images to more-or-less wrap this one up…

From North Carolina… the final images of the Bounty taken by the USCG. Aww.

From North Carolina… inland… snow (thanks to Andrea A. near Ashville). Brrr.

From Ocean City, New Jersey (credit unknown). Smirk.

And also in the news today, in case you want a small break from Sandy stuff…Disney announced it was buying Lucasfilms…

I’ll probably write my last entry on Sandy tomorrow.
Night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Extratropical Storm Sandy: October 29, Update A

Definitely a two-wine-glass sort of a day! The good, the bad, and the downright-not-very-pretty-at-all!

First though, a big thank you for the reports and photos that came in throughout the day from Maryland, New Jersey and New York – via email, facebook, twitter!! I know it is not over yet with high tide on its way, but I am glad you are all more-or-less ok!

‘Hurricane’ Sandy made landfall at around 5pm this evening (according to the satellite images – the visible and infrared grabbed at 5.30pm are below  - and around 8pm according to the NHC/radar images), with the center going over southern New Jersey, about 5 miles south of Atlantic City.

Winds were officially 80mph at landfall. Interestingly, the National Weather Service station in Atlantic City (north of landfall) recorded a high wind speed of 38mph today and Cape May (NJ, south of landfall) showed winds of almost 60mph (with stronger gusts) – this shows that the strongest winds were most likely on the southern side of the storm, which where Sandy and that low pressure front merged. Central pressure was 947mb. These wind speeds were really a consequence of the front more than the hurricane/tropical storm.

Officially the winds are still 80mph, but she really isn’t a hurricane. The NHC said (in the 5pm advisory) that she was already extratropical, but they would continue their advisories until she made landfall. They anticipate their last advisory to be at 11pm tonight. They have re-classified her as a post-tropical system already (extratropical). For those still being impacted, and those that will be impacted as she moves inland and heads north, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center will pick up on the advisories beginning tomorrow morning. For those who are north of New Jersey, there is, unfortunately, more to come… more wind and flooding tonight and tomorrow.

Her ‘center’ is now at 39.6N, 74.6W, and she’s heading WNW at about 21mph. She will move inland and head north tomorrow. The not-so-great-news is that her winds will continue to blow water on-shore in New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and places north for the next few hours/day. From tides online, the highest surge is now around Manhattan and Connecticut. It is currently greater than 9ft above normal at The Battery in NY, and 10ft above normal at Kings Point in Long Island Sound, NY. New Haven, CT, is showing over 8.5 ft above normal. High tide this evening means that the Battery will have water levels of over 14ft, Kings Point will probably be 14-15ft, and New Haven will be around 14ft!

A complete smorgasbord of reports and images from the day (from south to north):

Beach erosion on the east coast of Florida was quite severe:

Photo of steps that, three days ago, went down to the beach. Thanks to Mitch R. from Florida!

The Bounty, a beautiful replica of the original wooden sailing vessel, sank off North Carolina today. It started taking on water as Sandy went by overnight. The U.S. Coast Guard rescued 14 of the 16 people on-board, recovered one and the last I heard, the Captain was still missing. She was en route to her winter home port in St. Petersburg, Florida. I am not sure why they were out there!

Chris M., just north of DC at 6.23pm: “so far we are OK. We've had about 5 inches of rain where we are just north of DC. However, I've got to say that having a hurricane with air temps of 42 deg is just NOT right. Hope you are enjoying some wine… ” … which translates as ‘have some wine’. Oh, ok. If you insist! Glad you are ok!

Also from New Jersey, stellar reporting throughout the day from Laura S., who was very close to the landfall location! The dock I showed yesterday was completely submerged this morning, with water coming up to houses (photos from Laura S.):

 Around 9pm: “Water up to the garage, 3 plus hours to high tide… the house will start to flood shortly and so long to my jeep which I just love. Saving grace, dogs are safe and sound on the second story.” (They moved the other cars to higher ground and kept the jeep in case they needed to get out in an emergency). They are on the Mullica River. Be careful!

From Sameer in New York City. 3.10pm: “A crane near top of highrise construction site being built in midtown is toppling from high height. Could fall to ground. Haven’t felt any crazy gusts yet. Rain is minimum.” (I’m sure the photos are all over the news, so I won’t even bother including this). 7.30pm: “Ok, the wind is here. Limited rain, but the wind is bad.” 8.46pm: “We just lost power.”  Consolidated Power shut off power to Lower Manhattan around 9pm, but I think equipment failure before that lead to power loss in Greenwich Village and Lower Manhattan (photo credit unknown!):

There are also reports of seawater in the subway and definitely in the tunnels this evening.  

Stay safe… stay indoors and wait it out!
More tomorrow!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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'Hurricane' Sandy: October 28, Update A

If you are anywhere along the coast between Virginia and New York, you should only be reading this if you have made your preparations for Sandy! Those I’ve heard from in various states are ready or preparing. If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone (or even if you are not), please heed the warnings from your local emergency managers. They really know the local area best – where it will flood, where it won’t, what roads get jammed etc.

Sandy is still off the North Carolina coast and south of Cape Hatteras, at 34N, 70.9W, but according to the forecasts, is on the verge of making the turn to the north. She is officially heading NE at 15mph, but if things go as forecast, we should see a NNE movement in the next advisory at 11pm. She did slow down between my last update and this one, and the track shifted slightly north so landfall looks like it will be in New Jersey now. Winds are still 75mph, central pressure 950mb, so no change in intensity. I still think she’s a bit weaker than this and is a Tropical Storm, but the entire situation is a little more complicated so I’ll let that part go.

Sandy is going to be quite windy with a lot of coastal flooding (including up estuaries). There will be some rain, but not the usual torrential downpours that can come along with a hurricane/tropical storm, so that won’t be the biggest issue. The winds may take down trees and tree limbs, which means potential power losses. And because she’s a hybrid storm, the low front moving in from the west is bringing cold weather with it (I am not sure about how much snow there will be – probably not as much as a normal nor’easter).

I don’t think the tropical storm side of Sandy will change too much between now and the forecast landfall (which is supposed to occur overnight on Monday/Tuesday). If she was just a tropical system, I’d say that she would weaken. Although wind shear is a little weaker, she is over sea surface water temperatures of 26 deg C, so only just about warm enough to sustain her convection. She will cross a patch where the surface water temperatures are 26-27 deg C (this is the Gulf Stream off Cape Hatteras), but then she will get back over water that is too cool to sustain her as a tropical storm. This is when she will transtition to be an extratropical storm. She still has a lot of dry air in her, which is another reason she doesn’t have too much convection. You can see this in these satellite images (visible, infra-red to show the convection, and water vapour to show the dry air):

I’m guessing that black patch in the water vapour may be levels below a certain threshold. The tricky part of this puzzle is the low pressure front and how it will interact with Sandy.  

Looking at some real observations… From the SECOORA website that I showed you a couple of days ago, the nearest buoy is now about 70 miles northwest of her center, so well within the storm bands. That has wind measurements of about 32mph, with air pressure at 969mb and still decreasing. From Tides Online, I see that the maximum storm surge so far has been at Duck, NC and assorted places in Virginia, where the peak surge was 4 ft above normal but is decreasing now (for now). Ocean City Inlet in Maryland, places in Delaware, and Cape May in New Jersey had/have water levels 3 ft above normal. North of there the water is currently 2 ft above normal at Atlantic City (NJ) and in the Hudson River and at Montauk, in New York (I used to live on Long Island years ago and loved it!), and a bit higher in Long Island Sound.

<Observations Alert> If you want to look at observations of wind, temperature, pressure etc at places that are on land, you can go to this National Weather Service site:  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/osd/portal.shtml. Pick the state of interest from the drop down menu under the Automated Surface Stations. Click on a location under ‘Current Weather Conditions’, and you will get a table of wind speed, temperature, pressure etc. For example, the observed winds in Atlantic City are about 21mph at the moment. <End Observations Alert>

Here is a photo from Laura S. in New Jersey, whose home is on the Mullica River near Atlantic City:

This was her dock earlier today … that is not high tide. The water levels will continue to increase… the storm is still blowing water onshore and will do so all day tomorrow.  

Good luck to all my family, friends, and readers in the northeast! If you have a chance, let me know how things are going.  

Stay Safe!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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'Hurricane' Sandy: October 27, Update A

Mother Nature has upstaged American politics. With 10 days to go before the Presidential election, Hurricane Sandy was a higher ranking news item (from what I heard), followed by the changes in the candidates’ schedules because of the storm. Science is important! :-)  

The NHC had a brief moment of clarity this morning and downgraded Sandy to a Tropical Storm, but then decided that too many people would think that would sound just like a walk in Central Park, so they better call her a hurricane after all. Sigh. Officially she now has winds of 75 mph, central pressure 961mb. This makes her very barely a cat 1 (cat 1 range: 74-95mph), so calling her a Hurricane is really for the psychological impact.

She is at around 30.5N, 74.7W, heading NE at 13 mph, and is pretty much on that NHC forecast track. Given the data I have today, I would agree with their general forecast. The slower she goes, the farther north will her landfall be. At the moment it looks like landfall will be in Delaware, but if she slows down, then her landfall will be farther north. She is forecast to make the turn to the north and then northwest tomorrow evening.

Here is a visible satellite image of Sandy (taken at night, so a little dark, but you can see her center), as well as the matching infrared satellite image so you can see how much convection she has:

For all you new kids tuning in (hello & sorry about the circumstances!), the blue area is mostly cloud, the light yellow is light rain, the dark yellow/orange is heavy rain, and if I show you an image with red surrounding dark gray, that means thunderstorms and possible tornadoes. As you can see, she is mostly just clouds and light rain, nothing too strong at all. For those of you who remember Irene last year, Sandy is nothing like that. Nowhere near the same amount of rain!

Also, here is an infrared satellite image of the Northwest Atlantic so you can see Sandy in a larger context:

The concern really isn’t Sandy-the-tropical-storm (which alone is pretty weak), but Sandy-the-hybrid-tropical-storm/low-pressure-front. The front has almost merged with Sandy’s western flank – you can see the ‘straight’ line of the front, it is currently over western Florida and Georgia/Tennessee/Kentucky/Ohio etc. The front also doesn’t have much rain in it either. So Sandy will be a windy, with some some storm surge (and a bit of rain).

The storm surge on the eastern seaboard (from tides online; see this entry for instructions on how to do this: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2012/08/tropical-storm-isaac-august-26-update-b.html), is highest in Virginia at the moment, with water levels at Sewells Point and Money Point on the southern side of the Chesapeake Bay showing water levels at 2 ft above normal. Although the winds are not very strong (about 35mph max), the wind direction is just right in blowing water into the Chesapeake Bay estuary and onto the southern shore.  

<Observations Alert>Yesterday I told you where to look for some fabulous real-time data in the Atlantic and along the coast from Florida to North Carolina. If you want to see what is going on in the ocean and along the shoreline from Cape Hatteras, NC to Cape Cod, MA, look here: http://assets.maracoos.org/. On the lower left panel, click on the button next to ‘Turn all models off’ under the ‘Models’ section so you can actually see the stations with real observations clearly. Also make sure there is a tick mark in the top 5 boxes under the top left section called ‘Point Observations’ so you get a larger range of coastal stations as well. Then scroll over the dot (station) on the map that you are interested in, and click to look at the real data. If you click on the graph looking icon next to the observation you are interested in (for example, wind speed in mph), the graph at the bottom of the page shows a timeline of those observations. You have to close the ‘data’ box to see the graph though. Ta-da. <End Observations Alert>   

It looks like there are a lot of preparations going on for ‘Hurricane’ Sandy in the Virginia/Maryland/Delaware/New Jersey/New York area today, for example, as seen on a shoreline in New Jersey…...

I’ll be back with more tomorrow! Time for a glass-o-wine and a bit of Saturday night classic British TV… As Time Goes By (which, coincidentally has a character called Sandy!). :-)
Ciao,
J.

p.s. Ok, ok, actually, that photo is one I took today at the science festival… thanks to the anonymous person who let me take that photo of his t-shirt! J

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Sandy: October 26, Update B

‘Hurricane’ Sandy is still out there. She’s really not a hurricane any more, but more of a Tropical Storm and the NHC know this too… but I think they are waiting for confirmation from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane before downgrading her. I think she’s been a Tropical Storm for a number of hours now. So far, Sandy has been a relatively straightforward storm… but now it gets a little tougher.

Track: She is officially at 27.7N, 77.1W, moving N at a very slow 7mph. To me it looks like she’s moving a little slower than that, which means she is still stuck in an area of high pressure. In fact I don’t see her moving anywhere fast in the next few hours. Regarding her future track, I can see that she will start moving generally northward when the high pressure breaks, but whether it is northeast or northwest depends on when she starts moving. At the moment it looks to me like she could even head for the Carolinas if she started moving soon! I find it interesting that because I’ve already seen the forecast track I think I can see what the models are predicting will happen. Without knowing the forecast track ahead of time, I would not have come to the same conclusion. I think this is the first known example of Schrodinger’s Track!! ;-) In this case I would really go with the NHC track because the models for the track (not intensity) have been doing very well lately! (so well that I might even be able to go into semi-retirement next season! ;-)).

Intensity: Officially she has winds of 75mph, central pressure 969mb. This makes her barely a cat 1 hurricane (cat 1 range: 73-95mph). The buoy in the Atlantic that is closest to her (from the SECOORA website - details were in the last update), about 150 miles from the center, is now showing that winds have increased to 54mph, with pressure at 990mb. Storm surge from the Tides Online website is showing at the most 1.5 ft above normal. As you know, she is experiencing very strong wind shear and dry air. Here is the latest water vapour satellite image of her (she’s that cloudy area just east of Florida) and the entire north Atlantic so you can see the extent of the clouds streaming away from her to the north:

You can also see the front that they think will cause a bit of a ruckus when it meets her in a couple of days… it is that line of clouds that is stretching from the northeast to the southwest, ending over Louisiana and Texas. I think she will continue to weaken, maybe down to a weak-to-mid strength Tropical Storm. In addition to the dry air and wind shear, water temperatures are a little cooler at 27-28 deg C (still warm enough to sustain her), with the upper 50-75m warmer than 26 deg C.  

The forecast for Sandy says that she will re-intensify into a hurricane on Sunday afternoon because she will interact with a low pressure front. I am not sure she will be quite as strong as they are forecasting, but the bigger effects will be from winds and storm surge along the coast. Here’s an article from USGS that covers the wave impacts they expect to see along the beaches on the Delmarva Peninsula (Delaware, Maryland, Virginia), New Jersey, and Long Island (New York) (from Karen): http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/sandy/.

That’s all for today. Tomorrow is the St. Petersburg Science Festival, so come along and see some FUN science stuff! I’ll be hanging out with the cool kids at the Florida Institute of Oceanography table… stop by and say hello if you are in the vicinity of the USF-SP campus.

And for my friends in the states north of here (or elsewhere)… let me know if you have any questions!

Ciao for now,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Sandy: October 26, Update A

A quick lunchtime note…

Sandy’s center is now very easily seen because of the dry air and wind shear. Here is a visible satellite image that I just grabbed, and the corresponding infrared and water vapor satellite images to show how much convection she has near her center and how much dry air there is:

The NHC downgraded her last night after a plane found lower wind speeds (I’m decidedly not surprised)… but they still keep her as a weak cat 1 hurricane with winds of 80mph, central pressure 970mb. I would say she’s a bit weaker (maybe a strong Tropical Storm/borderline cat 1), but this isn’t as egregious as what we saw yesterday, so I’ll let it go for now.

She’s at about 26.7N, 76.9W, and officially she is heading N at 6mph. This shows that two things have happened. First, she’s slowed down as I mentioned she would a few days ago. This is because she is bumping into that high pressure to the north. Secondly, she’s shifting from NW to N, which suggests there is a weakness in the high pressure and she may be making that forecasted turn towards the NE. I see that Bermuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch. Looks like it’s a bit breezy with odd (not normal ;-)) showers over yonder already.

<Observations Alert!> The storm surge from tidesonline is showing almost 2 ft above normal in northeast Florida, and 1 ft above in southeast Florida.

If you want to look at some fabulous actual, real-life, in the water, under the storm data of winds and pressure, you can go to http://secoora.org/maps/. Note that if you use Internet Explorer (like me), it is a bit slow in uploading but I think that someone somewhere is trying to fix that. But it gives one enough time to go and get a cup of tea or a gin and tonic, depending on the time of day somewhere in the world, while you wait for it to upload ;-). How to use this site:
1. First click on the square button that says ‘Sandy Track’ (near the bottom on the left side). If you want to see the cone of uncertainty, click on ‘Sandy Cone’ as well. It lets you ‘activate’ more than one button at a time – it smart! ;-)
2. Now, on the left side, if you click on the round button next to ‘Real Time Observations’, you can scroll your mouse over any of the stations and a little display will tell you what the observations are.
3. Then if you click on a station you are interest in, you get a graph that shows the observations as they have changed in time. If you move down the list of observations next to the graph and click, the graph shows that observation. It’s like magic! J
4. If you want to move the map, put your mouse over it, click and hold and move. Easy peasy.

For example, I clicked on a buoy off the coast of Florida, in the Atlantic, closest to her track at the moment (and definitely under her if you look at the satellite images above) and the wind speed out there is only 44mph, with pressure at 999mb at the moment, but the graph shows me that the wind speed at that location is still rising and the pressure is still falling, so she’s not quite close enough. But we can watch as she gets closer how much it agrees with the official estimates.

This site will give us observations from Florida to North Carolina. I know some of you are in ‘those’ northern states ;-)…. I’ll get the equivalent one for you later (or tomorrow). And there’s a similar system for the Gulf, so I might just throw that in at some point for good measure.

<End Observations Alert!>

Time to sleep… er I mean work…. ;-)
Adieu for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Sandy and Extratropical Storm Tony: October 25, Update B

<rant alert> “It’s life Jim, but not as we know it!” (from that fabulous, classic song, ‘Star Trekkin’ by The Firm: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCARADb9asE). That pretty much sums up what the NHC are trying to tell me about Hurricane Sandy today… a category 2 storm with NO EYE!!!!! Really?!? Just because she doesn’t have an eye doesn’t mean WE don’t have eyes. And forecasting a cat 2 storm doesn’t mean she actually is a cat 2 storm. Dear NHC, “It’s worse than that, it’s physics, Jim.” (also from Star Trekkin’). <end rant alert>

Sigh. Sigh.

<rant alert 2> There are at least two big problem with overestimating the category of a storm. First, people who go through this think they have experienced a cat 2 storm, so when the next real one comes along, they will think this is what it was like. And second, scientifically I disagree with this. I don’t know how they expect to improve intensity forecasting skills if they don’t have the approximate correct intensity!  <end rant alert 2>

Hurricane Sandy
Although large, she is such a poorly formed storm that it is tricky to see where her center is… I estimate it to be around 25N, 75.3W and she looks like she’s heading kinda sorta NNW, which was expected given that high pressure ahead of her. It does look like she’s still slightly east of the forecast center of cone track. Officially she is at 24.8N, 75.8W, a little south and west of my estimate, heading NNW at 17mph.

Winds are still officially 105mph, which keeps her at a mid-to-strong cat 2 storm (cat 2 range: 96-110mph)… and here is an infrared satellite image of her:

She has some strong convection – the red and grey areas are very very strong thunderstorms, but nothing like she had when she really was a cat 2 storm! We shouldn’t be surprised by the convection. That happens even in summer thunderstorms when the surface water is warm – and it certainly is warm under her with sea surface temperatures of 28-29 deg C with the upper 50-75m of the water being warmer than 26 deg C. As I said before, there is some wind shear which will increase as she heads northwards and there is dry air to her west. Also, of course, as she moves north, the water temperatures will start to cool. The circulation is slowly weakening in the mid-to-upper troposphere, but there is still a signal of circulation up there, which suggests she’s still a weak cat 1.

I think they have a pretty good handle on her track for the next two days. There is still some high pressure ahead of her, but she will head NNW/NW tonight/tomorrow, and then should turn to the N/NNE on Saturday.  The problem with the track beyond that is that high pressure. It hasn’t shifted yet and until it does, the track forecast is tricky. The current forecast track curves her back to the US eastern seaboard – somewhere between North Carolina to New Hampshire on Monday/Tuesday as a hurricane. This really depends on where she is when she makes that N/NNE turn on Saturday because that indicates where that high pressure is giving way and allowing her a path forward. For now, I will go with the NHC on the long-term track, but I don’t think she’ll be as strong as they think.

Meanwhile, back in Florida… a bit breezy, but not too much rain so far. I’m sure the surfers were out on both coasts! The storm surge may be something to keep an eye on, on the east coast. From tides online, the water is already about 1 foot above normal along a portion of the Keys at the very southern end of the peninsula, but not too much yet along the east coast. If you want to check on water levels along the coast, I use tides online… instructions in this entry: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2012/08/tropical-storm-isaac-august-26-update-b.html.

Extratropical Storm Tony (the tiger)
(Or post-tropical if you prefer the new jargon). Last seen at around 31.2N, 34W, he was heading ENE at 22mph. Winds were 40mph, making him barely a TS (range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1001mb. The NHC issued their last advisory on him, and so shall I! Hopefully the Detroit Tigers last a little longer!!

That’s it for today, so...  see ya ‘noles! (especially for Jeff D. from Florida ;-))

J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Sandy: October 25, Update A

A quick special Hurricane Sandy update with my morning cuppa tea. J

She made landfall in Cuba as a strong cat 2 storm last night with winds of 110mph. But she got into a big fight in Cuba and has emerged this morning without her eye, which means she is probably a strong Tropical Storm or weak cat 1. The strong convection decreased substantially while she was over land. Here are the infrared images from 7pm last night, when she was between Jamaica and Cuba, and one I grabbed at 7.30am this morning, when she was just north of Cuba so you can compare the two:

That dark gray and red strong tornado-generating thundery weather around her eye last night has pretty much vanished. I disagree with the NHC on this. They have kept her as a cat 2 storm with winds of 105mph (but there isn’t even an eye!).

Her circulation is still pretty good throughout the troposphere, so I would say she is a weak cat 1 storm with winds in the 75-85mph range. There is a lot of wind shear, and she is heading into some stronger shear. So even though she will be over warmer water, she still has the shear, dry air, and bits of Bahamanian land to keep her in check. Here is the infra-red satellite image of her over a larger geographical area – she’s a robustly large lady! J

We are lucky we have the dry air and wind shear to keep her at this size! The blue areas are just clouds, very little rain. Yellow is where the rain really begins. Haiti and the Dominican Republic are about to get a lot of rainy/thundery weather (alas).

She is currently at 21.6N, 75.5W heading N at 18mph. Minimum pressure is officially 967mb.

I’ll be back later,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Hurricane Sandy and Tropical Storm Tony: October 24, Update A

I should go away more often. Yesterday the number of hits on the blog website crossed the 40,000 mark! J Crikey! Most definitely time for a glass-o-wine with some cheese (wensleydale of course), but it is not yet time to stop... 

 

Hurricane Sandy

I more-or-less agree with the NHC on their assessment of this storm at the moment - she is heading northwardish and has winds of around 90mph (because she has a slightly murky, yet definite, eye). This makes her a mid-strength cat 1 storm (Cat 1 range: 74-95mph). Her central pressure is a low 954mb, which does suggest she is a bit stronger… maybe a border line cat 1/cat 2 storm. She crossed Jamaica earlier today and is officially at 19.4N, 76.3W, heading N at 13mph towards Cuba. 

She has a lot of convection as you can see in this satellite image of water vapour:

This is because she was crossing the region of deep warm water in the Caribbean where the upper 150-175m of the ocean is warmer than 26 deg C. Those water temperatures are still fairly deep between Jamaica & Cuba (upper 125m), so she continues to have a lot to chew on and hence grow, and grow some more. Surface temperatures are also still quite hot - between 30-31 deg C! Although this helps to increase her intensity, there are factors that suggest she may not remain a hurricane as she crosses Cuba. Not only is she going to feel the land impact but there is dry air to her west and the wind shear looks like it will increase as she heads north (although if she is stronger at landfall and moves across quickly or over less land, this may not have enough of an impact). The forecast says she will remain at hurricane strength as she crosses Cuba and into the Bahamas.

It is possible that southeastern Florida will have a bit of a breezy day tomorrow. It is tricky to tell how much rain she will bring until we see what she looks like after her Cuba visit. For Florida, I am inclined towards the 'not too much' end of the rain spectrum at the moment.... I bet the surfers will be out though! J But those on the east coast can expect to have an increase in water level along the coast over the next day or two - although there isn't anything to talk of yet.

Now, the track. Hmm. I think she is actually heading NNE at the moment and to the east of the center of cone track - this means she will cross a narrower part of Cuba, which in turn means there is a greater chance she will remain a hurricane. However, after Cuba, there is high pressure to her north and unless that shifts by the time she gets to the Bahamas (late tomorrow), she will probably head slightly north-northwest to try and get around it (or she will slow down). I'll get the latest pressure fields tomorrow morning and maybe have a better idea then.

Tropical Storm Tony
They gave TD19 a name late last night… presumably in honour of the baseball. But Tony the tiger is no giant. J (see, I know about sports. Really I do. ;-)) He's quite a little storm really. He is currently at 30.1N, 40.3W, and is being whisked away to the ENE at 23mph. His winds are officially at 50mph, central pressure 1000mb. Although his circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere, he is feeling the effects of considerable wind shear as you can see in the satellite image because his clouds are streaming off to the northeast. I think he is a border-line Tropical Storm, and the NHC anticipates downgrading him tomorrow. 

Before I sign off, I was so chuffed with the Star Trek picture that I forgot to add what 'peezy-weezies' and 'hansy-janzies' were at the end of the last entry! They both mean to be sulky or down in the dumps I believe. J

Later gators!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Sandy and Tropical Depression 19: October 22, Update A

I’ve been rolling my eyes so much today that I’m sure they fell out around lunchtime! If you find them, please return them after Halloween. Thanks.

Officially we have one Tropical Storm (Sandy) and one Tropical Depression. Personally, if they are naming Sandy, then I think we have two Tropical Storms because the TD has better circulation than Sandy.

Tropical Storm Sandy
She is officially at 12.5N, 78.5W and is hanging out (stationary) in the southern Caribbean (reading a book, getting a tan, drinking pina coladas, bothering the cruise ships). She is very weak for a Tropical Storm with winds of 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph). Although she is a bit messy, I think the center is slightly off and should be to the northeast of this location, closer to 13.1N, 77.8W. I also think the track models are pretty good, but they are only as good as the data they eat (munchmunchmunch). So if the center is in the wrong location, the track forecast is also not quite correct… therefore I wouldn’t quite trust the official track forecast at the moment (it should improve by tomorrow). The other problem with the track is that she is stationary, which always complicates things. The pressure fields can change around her, and once she finally gets moving we may be looking at something slightly different. Having said all that, they think that she will start moving soon so in this case the track shouldn’t be too far off and I think a general northwardish movement is quite reasonable.

I am not sure I would have given her a name because her circulation (vorticity) is not very good at any level of the troposphere (she obviously hasn’t had enough pina coladas!). In the lower levels it is connected to vorticity that stretches from Cuba to Central America and across to South America, and then across to the Pacific!! It is really poorly developed for a storm. The reason they named her is because a hurricane hunter found winds *near* Tropical Storm force (!) in a band over the southeastern section of the storm… but they couldn’t really identify a good center of circulation (“it appears to be located somewhat south of the previous estimate…”?!?). I don’t think this is sufficient information to name a Tropical Storm (at this time).

She is over the toasty warm waters of the Caribbean, where surface temperatures are 29-30 deg C and the upper 100-125m of the water column is warmer than 26 deg C. This is a lot of deep warm water, which is why she has a lot of convection as you can see in this satellite image:

There is a chance that she will intensify as she moves northwards, as the NHC are forecasting, because she will move over an area where the water is warmer than 26 deg C in the upper 150-175m of the ocean!! <RANT alert> I noticed in today’s advisories, for the first time (although maybe I missed it in earlier ones… maybe due to a lack of eyes or something?) that the NHC have decided to make things crystal clear for everyone and introduce a new ‘Index’ and some more JARGON! Just what we all need! Grr. They talk about a ‘rapid intensification index’ because that makes it *so* obvious to everyone what is going on, don’t you think?! I don’t understand why they can’t simply call a spade a spade?!? It is SO simple… the storm will intensify because there is a lot of deep warm water, very little wind shear, and not much dry air or land impact. Really… talk about obfuscation! (ooh aaah… big word. ;-)) <End RANT alert> Oh and one more thing… I’d call it ‘normal’ intensification given the environmental conditions she is will be going through when she moves northwards.

Tropical Depression 19
This blob has got some good tropical circulation in the lower half of the troposphere (much stronger than Sandy!), although he is connected to a front-like feature in the upper troposphere. I am surprised they didn’t already name him given that he clearly has  the peezy-weezies <grin> or hansy-janzies…<Grin x 2>, as all Tropical Depressions must inherently have. (Ok, ok… definition at end of this entry).

His center of circulation is pretty clear at 22.6N, 51.2W, and it looks like he is heading NNW  (officially he is at 22.3N, 51.7W, heading N at 7mph). Winds are 35mph so he’s almost at Tropical Storm level (range: 39-73mph). I really think he’s there. Convection is not bad, although he is surrounded by dry air which isn’t helping.

He should soon hit a front that came across the eastern US and is out over the Atlantic. This satellite image of water vapour shows the front stretching off to the northeast as a pretty straight line:

This will whisk him off to the NE. If they do name him, he’ll be Tropical Storm Tony (the Tiger).

Tomorrow is a travel day so I’m not sure I’ll be able to send out an update… but you never know. To keep you entertained in the meantime, Scott from Chicago sent a picture of every Episode of Star Trek: The Original Series (TOS):

What is the link to Tropical Storms? J

Teleport!!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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Ex-Hurricane Rafael: October 17, Update A

Not much time tonight, but luckily Rafael is no longer really a tropical storm and the NHC posted their last entry on him earlier this afternoon. Hurray!

The last ground-level sighting I have of him was from Bermuda. This photo, taken by Royden (thanks Royden!), was looking northeast at around 8am this morning:

They can see clearly now the rain has gone! (that’s an original phrase, isn’t it? Someone should set it to music sometime.)

And Terrance, also from Bermuda, sent a note this morning: “No high winds to speak of and only scattered shower. We did receive significant and consistent rain last night and early this morning, with the highest winds taking place during that same time frame. Just poked my head out the door and it’s a very pleasant day at the moment; the sun is out with clear skies and a soft breeze. Rain is always welcomed because we depend on it for our drinking water.” (thanks Terrance!).

As I said in my last update, I think he’s a lot weaker and certainly did not have the structure of a tropical storm yesterday. He’s around 42.5N, 52.4W, heading NE at 35mph, which means he is well and truly an extra-tropical storm. Not much convection, and the circulation is tied to a front.

So that was Rafael. This is my last entry on him as well. J

Nap time! Zzzzzz ;-)
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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Hurricane Rafael: October 16, Update A

I’m watching reality TV as I write this. It’s called a ‘Presidential Debate’. Heard of it? Exciting stuff! I wonder… do their teams call each other up first and ask what tie they are planning on wearing? How embarrassing to turn up at the party and find someone else wearing the same thing! Hurricane Rafael doesn’t need to worry though…  he’s wearing a psychedelic orange/yellow/blue/white tie. Not conservative at all!

Actually I’m not sure he’s a hurricane anymore. Officially winds are still 85mph, central pressure 969mb. However, his circulation has deteriorated. The circulation (vorticity) is still very strong in the lower levels of the troposphere, but in the middle and upper levels it is now connected to a front, which means, technically speaking, he is no longer a Hurricane! (as if technical details ever made a difference ;-)). Added to this, his convection has also decreased quite drastically as you can see in this satellite image:

There are no areas of very strong thunderstorms (grey and red), and very little of the garden-variety thundery weather (orange). I’d estimate his winds to be around 60mph. As magnificent and invincible as Bermuda is, the reason for this decrease is because of dry air, rather strong wind shear, the structural change in the atmosphere, and a drop in sea surface water temperatures to around to a chilly 25 deg C.

It looks like he is currently at around 32N, 61.5W. He really picked up speed (not the street corner variety! ;-)) from 9mph winds yesterday to 16mph today (heading NNE to NE). The NHC have him as a hurricane until tomorrow afternoon… I think this is way too long. He’ll be a willow-the-wisp by then! They have him becoming a depression on Saturday/Sunday… again, I think this is too long.

Bermuda had some rain and stuff yesterday/today, but it’s pretty much gone now. They can probably resume golf playing and other things (what else goes on over there other than rum and tea drinking anyway?) in a few hours… or when the sun rises.

I think it’s time to eat some ice cream. It’s been that sort of a day. Ummm… coconut and mango today I think. Yummy. J

Adieu!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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Hurricane Rafael: October 15, Update B

Rafael is behaving with bienseance. Heehee… I’ve been waiting for a well-behaved storm so I could sneak that in somewhere. J

The high pressure ahead of him did, indeed, dissipate and he did make that forecast northward turn and is picking up speed (as in velocity, not drugs!!) as I write. He is currently at around 24.7N, 65.7W, heading N at 10mph. I agree with the NHC that his center will be close to, but east of Bermuda.

Hurricane hunter planes sent into Rafael this afternoon found that he has winds of 85mph, central pressure of 974mb. This makes him a mid-sized Cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). This much I also agree with. But, in case you were wondering, he didn’t suddenly intensify from a 70mph Tropical Storm to an 85mph hurricane in 3 hours! In my opinion he was a hurricane earlier today, based on the satellite and wind analyses, and the NHC were waiting for the planes to report back. As you can see from this satellite image, a hurricane of this intensity does not have to have an eye:

He has some decent outflow (the clouds are spread outward like a rotary saw) which indicates that he has a good structure, even though he is being impacted by wind shear (the clouds are a bit messy on the eastern side). The circulation is strong throughout the troposphere and there is a lot of convection, with plenty of thunderstorms (the gray and red parts of the satellite image).

He will be moving into a region of higher wind shear, which should inhibit too much more development. However he is still over warm water with surface temperatures of around 28 deg C, and the upper 75m is warmer than 26 deg C, so I think he’ll remain a cat 1 tomorrow. He is forecast to zoom past Bermuda tomorrow evening/night, as a hurricane. I hope you guys have your wellie boots out and polished! (And it might get a bit breezy).

Speaking of breezy (segueway numero uno ;-))... if you want a break from tropical stuff, here’s a blog about a paleoceanographer I know who is on a fun science expedition in Antarctica, where it can get quite ‘breezy’ too (http://ameliashevenell.wordpress.com/). In some of her entries she describes life on board a research vessel. It reminds me of the days when I used to be on research vessels on long cruises. That was a long time ago. Back when smoke signals were still modern ... convenient really, especially when the engine caught fire…

And speaking of paleoceanographers (segueway numero two ;-)), Greta from Florida sent me this photo, taken at a place with lots of large models of dinosaurs near a large city in Florida (mentioning no names). You may find it very umm… ‘educational’.  ;-)

Ciao for now!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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Tropical Storm Rafael: October 15, Update A

A quick breakfast note with my morning tea.

There is an area of high pressure ahead of Rafael, which means he will probably slow down today (he is already beginning to slow down actually). In turn, this means he will stay over the very warm waters, where the upper 100m is warmer than 26 deg C for longer. Although he will continue to experience some wind shear, I don’t think this will be enough to stop him from becoming a cat 1 – there is already very good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, and some in the upper troposphere. Therefore I agree with the NHC and think he will become a cat 1 hurricane. He is a borderline TS/cat 1 with winds of 70mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 985mb. They are sending in a plane and will have better information later.

Officially he is at 22.5N, 65.5W, heading NNW at 9mph. I think he may be a little northwest of this location. Although they did shift his forecast track to the east and away from Bermuda overnight, you guys should definitely keep an eye on him. If he slows down there may be a readjustment in his track to the west again (tricky to tell because it depends on that high pressure and also on how strong he gets). The models are forecasting the high pressure to weaken – we will know this if he turns north today. I have to say, post-Isaac, the models have been doing a pretty good job with the track of these storms but regardless of where his center goes, if he grows you guys in Bermuda may need to cancel your golf games for a day or two because you’ll get a couple of buckets of rain.

I’ll be back later. Must finish my cuppa before it gets cold. J
J.

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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