Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Hurricane Rafael: October 16, Update A

I’m watching reality TV as I write this. It’s called a ‘Presidential Debate’. Heard of it? Exciting stuff! I wonder… do their teams call each other up first and ask what tie they are planning on wearing? How embarrassing to turn up at the party and find someone else wearing the same thing! Hurricane Rafael doesn’t need to worry though…  he’s wearing a psychedelic orange/yellow/blue/white tie. Not conservative at all!

Actually I’m not sure he’s a hurricane anymore. Officially winds are still 85mph, central pressure 969mb. However, his circulation has deteriorated. The circulation (vorticity) is still very strong in the lower levels of the troposphere, but in the middle and upper levels it is now connected to a front, which means, technically speaking, he is no longer a Hurricane! (as if technical details ever made a difference ;-)). Added to this, his convection has also decreased quite drastically as you can see in this satellite image:

There are no areas of very strong thunderstorms (grey and red), and very little of the garden-variety thundery weather (orange). I’d estimate his winds to be around 60mph. As magnificent and invincible as Bermuda is, the reason for this decrease is because of dry air, rather strong wind shear, the structural change in the atmosphere, and a drop in sea surface water temperatures to around to a chilly 25 deg C.

It looks like he is currently at around 32N, 61.5W. He really picked up speed (not the street corner variety! ;-)) from 9mph winds yesterday to 16mph today (heading NNE to NE). The NHC have him as a hurricane until tomorrow afternoon… I think this is way too long. He’ll be a willow-the-wisp by then! They have him becoming a depression on Saturday/Sunday… again, I think this is too long.

Bermuda had some rain and stuff yesterday/today, but it’s pretty much gone now. They can probably resume golf playing and other things (what else goes on over there other than rum and tea drinking anyway?) in a few hours… or when the sun rises.

I think it’s time to eat some ice cream. It’s been that sort of a day. Ummm… coconut and mango today I think. Yummy. J


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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.


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