The Blobette: August 14 Update B

Hmmm... well for those of you who have been waiting all day for the NHC
to wake up and issue a special tropical disturbance statement of some
sort, your wait is over. They finally issued something at 5pm EST today,
apparently carefully ignoring all other clues, but waiting to get data
from a plane that was sent in to investigate. This is what they say:

"DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...
ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS NOT
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH."

I am having a difficult time reconciling the satellite information of
convective activity and winds that I've seen throughout the day with
this "has not developed into a Tropical Depression" thing.

QuickSCAT - a satellite-based instrument that measures wind data - is
showing winds of over 20 knots east of the leeward islands. That's winds
greater than 23 mph. A tropical depression is defined by winds of 23-38
mph.

Satellite imagery showed a nice storm structure and the convection
earlier was very very strong. It's only just within the last two hours
or so that the convection has decreased (maybe that's when the plane was
in the system?), but there is still some good formation and outflow
(I'll get into the outflow jargon some other day).

The circulation, which is good, is still confined to the lower half of
the troposphere, which is a sign that its not a strong system, but I
would have said a TD at the very least and I think everyone who saw the
satellite images thought it looked more like a Tropical Storm earlier
today. Gosh, I think I'm so surprised that I can't even bring my usual
level of scathing sarcasm to the proceedings here! Yes, record the date
folks... I might actually be teetering on the edge of being speechless!

Anyway, for those in the VIs, if it's any consolation whatsoever, i know
it's on your doorstep but it's not a very strong storm now and
convection is decreasing at the moment - cloud tops have warmed. It is
unlikely to become a hurricane. From your messages I know you aren't
very happy bunnys at the moment because you've had next to no advice
from the NHC today... I have no idea what is going on there!

Of course, with impeccable timing I may not have Internet access
tomorrow... so...er... it's over to the NHC. Let's see. Maybe I'll find
some way. I'll be back when I can. (If anything changes later tonight
I'll send out another note though).

Have a good/safe night!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

The Blobette: August 14 Update A

I know I kept quiet on this for a couple of days because there wasn't
much to report. But it looks like the Blobette that was heading towards
the Leeward Islands is making a break for it... in the last three hours
alone her appearance has improved dramatically and it looks like she's
by-passed the TD stage and may actually be a Tropical Storm. Convection
has increased and is better defined. The NHC are most likely going to
send a plane into the system later today to get better data but I would
not be surprised to hear we have something more substantial than a mere
'invest' (blobette).

So, given the lack of official information at the moment, I estimate her
center is somewhere near 18N, 61W and she's moving in a W-NW direction.
This takes her center just to the north of the Islands for now, although
as I said a couple of days ago, it looks like they will be getting rain
- I hear that there's been light drizzle on St. Thomas today... but get
ready for a tad bit more. Computer models are in pretty good agreement
and show the track skimming the northern edge of all the islands -
Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic/Haiti, Cuba, and taking the system
through the Bahamas before curving away from the US and out into the
Atlantic. This is pretty close to my estimate based on the pressure
fields - there's a possibility that the system will be a little south of
these tracks, which means greater interaction with land. So the track
will really help to determine how strong this system gets.

Sea surface water temperatures are over 28 deg C and water temperatures
of over 26 deg C extend down to about 75 m depth. So there is plenty of
nice warm water for this blobette, should she wish to improve her looks
further. Wind shear has decreased and remains low in her path - which is
partly why she's improved. There is still plenty of dry dusty air
surrounding the system. We'll see how much that helps to inhibit her
development.

That's it for now... very possibly another update later today... if you
all behave ;)
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

The Blobette and the Blob: August 12 Update A

Hello everyone... some of you have asked about the blobs in the Atlantic
so here we go.

The Blobette: This is the mass of convection closest to the Caribbean
that's been struggling to get going for the past few days. It finally
started to pick up steam yesterday (a good pun is its own reword ;)).
Circulation is in the lower parts of the troposphere only at the moment,
but there is definite circulation and it is centered somewhere around
16-17N, 50W. The NHC may send a plane in today if they think they need
more accurate information. It looks close to being a Tropical Depression
(winds of 23-38 mph) - the convection is certainly strong enough and has
been for over 12 hours now.

It is moving W-NW at 10-15 mph as it follows the southern edge of a high
pressure system in the Atlantic (remember, clockwise movement around a
high in the northern hemisphere). At the moment the pressure fields
suggest that it will stay out in the Atlantic instead of entering the
Caribbean, but the VIs may get some rain from this system in a couple of
days. I got a note from St. Thomas yesterday saying that the rain would be
welcome to cool things down.

Water temperatures are around 27 deg C, but there is a bit of wind shear
and a lot of dry dusty air around which has been hindering its
development.

The Blob: This is the one south-west of the Cape Verde islands, located at
around 11N, 30W. It also has some low level circulation and a broader,
less organized, area of convection. I won't mention this one again until
it looks like its getting its act together.

Neither of these are officially even Tropical Depressions yet.

Later gators,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Edouard: August 5 Update A

As expected, he made landfall a short time ago along the upper Texas
coast, north of Galveston and close to the LA border/Sabine Pass. Winds
are 65 mph, and central pressure is 997mb, so he's a decent sized TS
(39-73 mph). He's now moving inland in a W-NW direction at 14 mph and is
located at 29.6N, 94.2W. There's a lot of rain and thunderstorm activity
associated with this system - more of a rain event than a wind event I
think. That's because he picked up a lot of moisture from the very warm
waters just off that TX/LA coast - warmer than 31 deg C.

This is my last entry in Edouard. Another good little storm - took some of
the heat without being too large. :)

--------------------
"Satellite Imagery Primer - Part Deux"

Yesterday I covered how you can look at a storm close up. Today, we'll
look at the bigger picture.

1. Go to the National Hurricane Center website satellite link page:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

2. Scroll down to the 3rd section that contains two columns: "Atlantic
Views" and "Pacific Views". Again, these data are from the GOES system of
satellites.

3. Under this heading you will see sub-headings: "Atlantic Wide View",
"Western Atlantic" etc. which gives you more of a basin-wide sort of view.

4. Under each one is a list of 4 different types of images. As for the
close-up imagery, if you want the latest still snapshot of any of the
images, click on 'Image'. For a movie, click on 'Loop' (this may take a
bit more time to load onto your machine). At the bottom of each image or
movie is a date and time stamp. The time is in UTC (Universal Time
Coordinate/ Coordinate Universal Time) and is about 4 hours ahead of EST
in the summer. So for example, 17:45 UTC is actually 13:45 Eastern
Standard Time.

For example, look under Atlantic Wide View. The three most
useful images:
- "Visible": This is a visible image in black and white.
- "Infrared": This is an infrared image and give you the temperature of
the cloud tops and hence an indication of how much convection (rain,
thunder etc) is actually going on. The information on the color scheme is
in yesterday's entry.
- "Water vapor": This shows you where the atmosphere has dry
air (brown) or whether there is already some water vapor (not brown).

5. Click on any of the loops (if you can). Once it has loaded, across
the top you will see a number of little buttons. Click the one that says
'LatLon' and it will draw a lat/long grid over the image. Click on
'TropFcstPts' and it will add the latest Forecast Track. Have a play -
click the buttons.

If you can't remember the website for this satellite page, go to the home
page of the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov) and there's a
link in the left column (under "Get Storm Info") - "Satellite". That will
take you to the page you need.

So there we have it - satellite imagery at your fingertips. Now when you
read future entries, you won't be thinking 'what the heck is she talking
about'. O.k., so maybe you still will... but hopefully this helped a wee
bit.

That's all until the next one, which, should it develop, will be called
'Fay' (gosh, I hope I don't mess up the spelling of that one!).

Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Edouard: August 4 Update B

Things I've learned (or learnt if you prefer UK English) since my last
update:

1. Some names are tricky to spell (why didn't anyone tell me this
before?!?). Apparently I had the 'o' in the wrong place. I was so close,
but it's not at the end of the name (Eduardo) it's in the middle:
Edouard! Really, don't you think names should be intuitive to spell...
just like mine? (that's why you'll never come across a Hurricane Jyotika).

2. "Weather forecasting is the only job where you can be wrong 50% of
the time and not get fired." ;)

Edouard is now at 28.3N, 91W, so he's moving along at 8mph in a WNW-ish
direction. Coastal LA is getting the outer rainbands now. The latest NHC
forecast track has shifted a tad bit south, but at the moment he looks
to me as though he'll be heading a little north with landfall closer to
the TX/LA border - it's still within the cone though. The tricky part in
assessing this earlier today was that there was a high pressure in the
way, that he is moving around (remember clockwise around a high pressure
system) and it extended over the TX coast, but it looks like it's
shifted northwards to me. We'll know with 100% certainty within 24 hours
- because er... by then he'll have made landfall.

Winds are still listed as being at 45 mph, but again, I'm not sure about
this because he looks like he's improved in features and his circulation
has definitely picked up. I think there's a plane in the system now and
the 5pm (EST) update will have more up-to-date information. Central
pressure is about 1001 mb. I expect him to have stronger winds than that
in the next advisory.

Forecast water levels are 2-4 feet above normal. The observations so far
show that along the MS and LA coastlines the water levels have already
reached a peak of about 1 foot above normal and are beginning to drop
now. Texas observing stations are still increasing but have not yet
reached 1 foot above normal.

--------------------------
Now for my "Satellite Imagery Primer - Part One". If I lose you, send me
an email and I'll try and muddy the waters further (oh, and all puns are
always intended ;) ).

You can see close-up images of a storm, or sometimes even a system with
potential (the NHC and everyone else calls them 'Invests', I prefer to
call them 'Blobs' and 'Blobettes' because it's just, well, more fun :) ) :

1. Go to the National Hurricane Center website satellite link page:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

2. Scroll down to the 2nd major heading: "GOES Floater Imagery - 30
minute updates". GOES are the satellites that the images come from: the
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites.

3. Under this heading you will see sub-headings: "Atlantic Floater 1",
"Atlantic Floater 2" etc. And under those will be a sub-sub-heading with
the name of the storm, or the number of the 'Invest', or it will say
'Not Active'.

4. Under each one is a list of 5 different types of images. If you want
the latest still snapshot of any of the images, click on 'Image'. For a
movie (which is what I usually look at), click on 'Loop' (this may take
a bit more time to load onto your machine though). At the bottom of each
image or movie is a date and time stamp. The time is in UTC (Universal
Time Coordinate/ Coordinate Universal Time) and is about 4 hours ahead
of EST in the summer. So for example, 17:45 UTC is actually 13:45
Eastern Standard Time.

For example, look under Edouard - Atlantic Floater 2. The three most
useful images:
- "Visible": This is a visible image in black and white. If you want to
see the center of circulation, this is the image to look at. The other
images will just cloud the issue :).
- "Infrared": This is an infrared image and give you the temperature of
the cloud tops and hence an indication of how much convection (rain,
thunder etc) is actually going on. White means warm cloud tops, which
means they are not very high in the atmosphere and therefore there is
not a lot of rain (no rain actually). Blue are cooler, but indicate
thick cloud cover, with possible drizzly type of rain. Yellow indicates
even cooler clouds tops, so these are higher in the atmosphere, usually
associated with a lovely downpour (I like the rain). Reds indicate
really cold tops, which are associated with "Thunderbolt and lightening,
very, very frightening" (Bohemian Rhapsody, Queen). A quick re-cap about
why cold cloud tops indicate more stormy weather is in the July 9 Update
C entry:
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/07/hurricane-bertha-july-9-update-c.html.

- "Water vapor": This shows you if the surrounding atmosphere has dry
air (brown) or whether there is already some water vapor (not brown).
This one is often used on tv reports (from what I've seen).

5. Click on any of the loops (if you can). Once it has loaded, across
the top you will see a number of little buttons. Click the one that says
'LatLon' and it will draw a lat/long grid over the image. Click on
'TropFcstPts' and it will add the latest Forecast Track. I won't go
through them all, but have a play - click the buttons. It's quite a lot
of fun really. Let me know if you have any questions on any of them. On
the bottom you will see controls to slow the movie down, move through it
frame-by-frame, play it backwards (Fun Fun - yes, it doesn't take much
to amuse me), stop it etc.

That's part one.
--------------------------
If something of interest happens later today I'll send out another note.
Otherwise, tomorrow amigos...
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Eduardo: August 4 Update A

Our little TS Eduardo did not intensify overnight (he actually
deteriorated a bit before pulling himself together this morning) and now
has winds of 45mph (TS: 39-73mph) and a central pressure of 1002 mb, but
he did pick up his pace and is moving westward at 8mph now. His center
is somewhere around 28.2N, 90.6W and he's expected to turn WNW today
with landfall still somewhere around Galveston, TX tomorrow. Landfall
will be within the cone, but it's not clear exactly where which is why
everyone in that area should be prepared.

The circulation has improved since yesterday, and he looks like he's
desperately trying to form areas of deep convection. They tell me that
there is vertical wind shear that is keeping his intensity down, and
there is a bit but it's about 5 -10 knots (5.75-11.5 mph) at the most,
and if you look at satellite images of him there clouds have formed on
all sides of the circulation so I'm not as convinced that's the reason.
But, for this storm, I will go with the NHC information because planes
have been in this system since yesterday and have really good
observations on this storm (which is where they got the data to realize
he was a TS in the first place). He is heading towards a region of
slightly higher shear, but still remains over water temperatures greater
than 29 deg C.

Currently, water levels along the coast are at the most 1 foot above
normal (in areas around the mouth of the Mississippi River). You can
look for yourselves on www.tidesonline.com. The directions are in one of
my previous entries (July 22):
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/07/ts-cristobal-and-hurricane-dolly-july.html.
The blue line is the predicted normal water level, the red are the
actual observations, and the green line on the plots gives you the
difference between the expected value and the observations - so the
'above normal' water level. Because a storm is a low pressure system,
in the northern hemisphere the winds move around it in a
counter-clockwise direction. So water levels on the north/eastern side
of the storm will be above normal because the winds are pushing water
towards the shore, but water levels on the western side will be below
normal. You can see this at the moment. If you click on stations around
the Mississippi (e.g. Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS) you'll see they have
higher than normal values. But if you click on stations in Texas (e.g.
Galveston Bay), you'll see that the water level was below predicted, but
is now beginning to rise as the storm moves closer to the TX coast.

If you tune in next time, I'm going to begin a two-part overview on
satellite images and where you can see them and what they mean. Towards
the end of Dolly, I saw one of my wonderful readers trying to see what I
was writing about...but in the wrong satellite images. Oops. This
morning I got another email from someone regarding satellite images, so
clearly it's time to shed some light on them. I guess the last time I
wrote about satellite images was a few years ago. Double oops. I'm such
a slacker...you guys should have sacked me ages ago! ;)

More later today...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Eduardo: August 3 Update A

Aaah... I hope you all had a nice little break there? Got caught up, maybe
read something interesting and well-written? (not like this ;) ) But now
I'm back and so is our next little storm. Alas, the holiday is over.

As you have all probably heard by now, Tropical Storm Eduardo came into
being early this evening in the northern Gulf, just south of the
Mississippi/Alabama coastline. He began developing yesterday when a low
pressure system moved off the northern Florida coast and into the Gulf
where water temperatures are over 29 deg C. There was (and still is) only
low level circulation, but today the circulation shifted farther from land
so he's had a chance to develop.

He is currently at 28.1N, 88.2W, just south of the Mississippi River
Delta, and has winds of 50 mph (TS wind range: 39-73mph) so he's still a
weak storm. It looks like he has adopted a relaxed summertime southern
lifestyle because he's moving westward at a grand 4mph.

I agree with the NHC forecast; I don't see too much that will prevent him
from developing a bit more in the short-term. There is very little wind
shear, water temperatures are over 29 deg C and warm waters (over 26 deg
C) extend down to at least 50m. His very slow forward movement may
actually be one thing that will work against him because he is slowly
cooling the waters he is hovering over - we saw this with Bertha (although
I think we saw pretty much every scenario with Bertha!).

There is a lot of convection with this system but most of the heavy
rainfall is offshore - this is more of a rainmaker than a windmaker at the
moment. I had a quick look at the water levels along the coast
(www.tidesonline.com) and there is very little change at the moment.

The official NHC track has him making landfall in the Galveston/Houston
area on Tuesday morning as a strong TS. I don't have the best information
at the moment to comment too much on his track - I'll get my little paws
on that in the morning. But I would say that everyone in the cone should
be getting ready.

More tomorrow.

Night night,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Dolly: July 24 Update A

Dolly is pretty weak now, with winds of 45 mph (TS: 39-73mph) and
weakening steadily. Her center of circulation just crossed into Mexico
and is at about 27.7N, 100W heading W-NW at 9mph. She still has some
rain, mostly in the northeast quadrant - over Texas, but that is also
diminishing. Not much more to say about her. So this is my last entry on
this system - I'm Done with Dolly. :)

For you crazy kids who decided it was a good idea to go to places like
Puerto Rico and the Keys during hurricane season, there's an area of
circulation out in the Atlantic, centered around 17N, 36W. Although the
circulation is good, there is not much water vapor in it at the moment.
It has been traveling over sea surface temperatures of ~25 deg C, which
is too cold for much to happen, but it is about to cross into a region
with 26 deg C temperatures. I'll keep an eye on it, but I did a rough
estimate of its forward motion and if anything does develop (which
doesn't look likely at the moment) I think you'll be back from those
respective places in time. So have fun. I'm not going to write about
this until there's something more substantial.

That's all for now folks. (woo-hoo... time for a nap before the
hurricane season *really* begins... ;) )
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Dolly: July 23 Update B

Her eye is currently (~1pm EST) crossing South Padre Island, about 35
miles NE of Brownsville, TX. They have her listed as a weak category 2
storm with winds near 100 mph (cat 2: 96-110 mph). She looks weaker than
that to me, but as I said earlier, there is very little difference
between a really strong cat 1 and a very weak cat 2. She's moving NW at
7mph. The really strong convection has decreased quite a bit since this
morning and her eye is looking even more ragged, although there is still
some strong "stuff" (technical term :) ) in the system. Hurricane force
winds extend out 25 miles from the eye.

J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Dolly: July 23 Update A

She'll make landfall within the next four hours. The eye is just
off-shore from Brownsville - at 8am this morning it was ~40 miles east.
She is now centered at 26N, 96.9W and was traveling NW at 8mph at the
8am advisory. Although the eye will make landfall in that part of Texas,
she's a big storm so there will be some rough weather with the outer
bands over most of the coastal (and some inland) areas of Texas and Mexico.

The eye is easily visible and winds at the 8am advisory this morning
were at 95 mph, making her a strong cat 1 (74-95mph), almost cat 2
(96-110mph). Central pressure is estimated to be 967mb. It does not look
like she has improved since then - there are fewer bands of really
strong convection and the eye is a little cloudier than before, so she
may remain a strong cat 1 storm at landfall. But the wind speed
difference between a cat 1 and 2 at this stage is so minuscule that it
really makes little difference. There is a lot of rain and stormy
weather in the bands.

From the observations, the closest location to Brownsville that we have
data from is also where the highest storm surge is at the moment: it is
~3 ft above normal at Port Isabel, which is near South Padre Island, and
about 22 miles NE of the center of Brownsville (isn't mapquest great?).
I had a quick look at a number of other stations in Texas, and they were
all showing less than that.

I'll send out a note when she's made landfall.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Cristobal and Hurricane Dolly: July 22 Update B

TS Cristobal:
Currently at about 42.2N, 62.5W, he has weakened and has winds of 50 mph
(TS: 39-73 mph) so he's a fairly weak storm now with a central pressure
of 1005mb. He's zipping along in a NE direction at 28 mph. There was an
increase in rainfall activity during the day today, but that is dying
down again now and they system is slowly becoming extratropical
according to the NHS (I can't tell that part from the information I
have). I think this will be my last entry on our friend Cristobal. He
was a goodly little storm that did not create too much mayhem. :)

Hurricane Dolly:
A plane found hurricane force winds near 75 mph this afternoon (cat 1:
74-95 mph) so she is now a weak category 1 storm with a central pressure
of 986mb, located at 24.6N, 95.3W. There is no clearly defined eye yet,
but you can see where it should be. She's moving NW at 10 mph, and her
circulation at all levels in the troposphere has improved, suggesting
further strengthening before she makes landfall. Landfall will be
tomorrow, in the Brownsville, Texas area, right on the Texas-Mexico
border. She's a large storm so her outer bands extend all the way to the
southern Gulf states.

Water levels along some parts of the Texas coast are, at the moment,
about 1 foot above normal. You can look at this for yourself by going to
Tides Online - a NOAA/National Ocean Service:
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html. Click on 'State Maps'
on the left panel, and then click on the state you are interested in and
then on the location of interest. Let me know if you have any questions
like umm... Where is Texas? Are they still part of the US? What are all
the other letters on the map? ;)

Actually, I've been to parts of Texas and it is a very nice state. I
have some good friends who live there. My web blog expert also lives in
Texas. And I still talk to them all from time to time. Really. I do.

Have a good evening everyone and if you are in coastal areas of Texas
(and actually Louisiana as well), be good.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Cristobal and TS Dolly: July 22 Update A

TS Cristobal:
He's still hanging on, partly because he's over sea surface temperatures
of 26-27 deg C. He is in a higher wind shear environment now, but there
is not too much rainfall activity. Just some clouds and a lot of wind.
Winds are at 65 mph, so still a fairly strong tropical storm (39-73mph)
and his 'center' is located somewhere around 41N, 66W. Circulation is in
the lower troposphere (lowest section of our atmosphere) only. He is
heading NE at 25 mph and will soon be over cooler waters and in a high
wind shear. I'm not sure he will last for too long - and that is in
agreement with the NHC.

TS Dolly:
Her winds are near 70 mph, so she is still a TS but a strong one -
almost at hurricane strength. They say an eye is developing, but it
looks about as developed as the satellite images were showing yesterday,
however their data is from a plane that flew threw this morning and also
found a central pressure of 991mb. She's at 24N, 94.5W and is moving NW
at 12 mph. Water temperatures beneath her are 29 deg C, and the upper
~70 m has 26 degC or warmer. The forecast calls for a NW or WNW track
with some slowing down before she makes landfall tomorrow. I would agree
with that. I also agree with the track - landfall somewhere in the
Texas/Mexico area (although at the moment Mexico looks more likely to me
because the high pressure is still covering most of the northern Gulf
and Texas - but we'll see if the next set of information shows any
change in the pressure field). There is some strong convection, although
it has decreased a little in the last couple of hours. The areal extent
of this storm is pretty big - the outer bands are bringing clouds and
rain to Mississippi. Circulation has improved and is now over the entire
troposphere.

Gotta go... more later,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Cristobal and TS Dolly: July 21 Update B

Quick evening update:

TS Cristobal:
He's steadily degraded this afternoon/evening and hardly has any rain
-just a mass of windy cloudy sort of weather. Like a lovely British summer
day ;) He is moving ENE at 16mph, and although his winds at the 11pm
advisory were still 60 mph (TS: 39-73 mph) I am not sure if he will
survive another day as a TS. I think they must have moved his official
center at some point during the day, because it is now within the area of
cloudiness. Unless something "interesting" happens, I expect I will be
stopping updates on him tomorrow.

TS Dolly:
She did not intensify much today as I thought she would. So it seems as
though the shallow warm waters took their toll because all other factors
seemed to be favorable. Of course, those who are paying attention know
that there is something else at play in the intensity forecasts that we
don't have a good understanding of. I will say that the NHC and models
called this correctly as not intensifying to a hurricane until tomorrow.
We'll see what happens then.

The intensity of her convection has steadily decreased during the day, but
the areal extent of her cloudiness has spread and now encompasses a large
area of the Gulf. Some of the outer clouds are already over land
(Texas/Mexico, and even other parts around the Gulf). So I will be very
interested to see if she does intensify tomorrow as forecast.

Her forecast track is pretty good - somewhere around the Texas/Mexico
border. At the moment, I would still say Mexico for landfall, but that's
just me (and a few models). She is moving west at 17 mph, as we expected,
although it looks like she's about to resume her W-NW motion. Max. winds
are 50 mph, central pressure 999mb and she's around 23.1N, 92.8W.
Circulation is still good in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere.

Another lovely day in Paradise comes to a close.
Night night.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Cristobal and TS Dolly: July 21 Update A

TS Dolly:
As a number of you noted, the center of Dolly was shifted northwards
this morning and now I feel much better about this system. :) I now
agree with the NHC that she is truly a tropical storm and is shaping up
very nicely (in a scientific sense). My concern with the center not
being correctly located yesterday is playing out today - with the more
northern location, she barely clipped the Yucatan Peninsula so she is a
lot stronger this morning than she would have been if she had followed
the track they had yesterday which would have taken her over land for a
longer period of time. This now sets her up to become a stronger storm.
There are hurricane and tropical storm watches along the Texas and
Mexico coastlines and the NHC expect her to become a cat 1 storm
tomorrow, with landfall on Weds. I would not be surprised if she becomes
a hurricane by the end of today given her little interaction with land,
warm waters and low wind shear environment.

Currently, she is at 22.1N, 89.5W and has winds of 50 mph, central
pressure of 1005mb (TS wind range: 39-73 mph). A plane went into the
system this morning and confirmed closed circulation, which is obvious
in any satellite image of her now. She is moving a little more westward
than yesterday, which is also something I was expecting given the
surrounding pressure fields. Her motion is W-NW at 18 mph. The exact
landfall location is still unknown, so keep an eye on the entire cone
not just the center.

From this point out, sea surface temperatures in her track are between
28-31 deg C - very warm. The warmer 26 deg C temperatures extend down to
about 75 m depth across most of the southern Gulf, but at the moment she
is also interacting with the very shallow and broad Campeche Banks just
north and west of the Yucutan Peninsula where warm waters only extend
down to about 25m. I keep mentioning the warm water and how deep it is
because as a storm passes over the surface it churns up water from
beneath the surface. As you can imagine, it makes a difference if the
water being churned up is cold or warm. I disagree with the NHC in
their assessment of the reservoir of warm water underneath:

"IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN
29 CELSIUS...AND A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AN AREA WITH
A SOMEWHAT DEEPER RESERVOIR OF WARM WATER BENEATH THE SURFACE."

She passed over the relative maximum reservoir in upper ocean warm water
in the northern/eastern Caribbean - around Jamaica and slightly west, as
I mentioned in a much earlier entry. I'm not sure what information they
are basing this statement on.

Dolly is growing in areal extent and there is a lot of water vapor
around her - in fact she is impacting upper level winds over most of the
Gulf of Mexico. I will discuss her further this afternoon, after I get
the next set of pressure maps. For now though, I think she will continue
more westward than northward, and will continue to intensify.

TS Cristobal:
As with Dolly yesterday, I think the NHC have the center of circulation
in the wrong place. Although this storm does not have a good structure,
they have the center located at 36.6N, 72.6W. This is entirely north of
the area of convection. It almost looks to me as though the center is
about 1 degree south - at 35.6N, 72.6W. Maybe someone just entered the
wrong number? He is moving NE at 13mph, and is following a high pressure
system (remember, things move clockwise around a high pressure in the
northern hemisphere). Winds have picked up to 65 mph, making him a
strong Tropical Storm now. I think it was yesterday I said we could
expect some strengthening because he is moving away from land and is
still over warm waters of 27-28 deg C. At least an incorrect center in
this case will not affect anyone (unless you are out on a boat in the
Atlantic).

That's all for now - more later when I have the latest pressure
information in hand.
Toodles,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Dolly: July 20 Update B - Special Note

O.k... I can't keep quiet anymore. There is something a bit dodgy about
this system. Either this should not be a named Tropical Storm (and not
because "Dolly" was the name of a cute and fluffy cloned sheep) or the NHC
have the center incorrectly idenitified and continue to do so.

The latest (11pm) advisory has the center at 19.6N, 85.6W ... which is
south of any convective activity. So either the center is completely
offset from the convection, in which case this system is so disorganized
it should not be a storm, or the center should be ~1 degree north of its
current official location and it will barely clip the Yucatan or may just
pass through the Strait - which will make a difference in it's future
track and intensity. The official center looked too far south to me all
day today relative to the convection (e.g. previous entry) and continues
to do so. If there is a center where the official one is, then I am not
convinced this is, or has been so far, a proper TS. For most of the
lifetime (to date) of this 'Blob' the circulation has not been the same as
the region of convection.

The NHC are hedging their bets already I think:

"DATA FROM A NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM PROBABLY
DOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW" ... "SINCE DOLLY COULD
REGENERATE A CENTER AT ANY TIME...NO GOOD WOULD BE SERVED BY
HANGING ON A TECHNICALITY."

and

"THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISRUPTION OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO
THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION."

This suggests to me that they already know/suspect it is north of their
official location... and for now at least, it is not technically a TS.

Sure there is some strong convection - but there has been for days and
days with this system. That is not reason enough for naming a system.

My problem with mis-defining systems is that this then becomes a
'statistic', so instead of having 3 named storms, we now have 4. We saw
this last year as well. I'll get into the whole storms and 'active' season
and climate discussion some other time though.

We'll see what happens by the morning - where exactly it passes over the
Yucatan Peninsula will tell us more. Dodgy Dolly. Hmm...looks like the
alliterations are not over yet!

Now that's off my mind I can go to sleep. :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Bertha, TS Cristobal and TS Dolly: July 20 Update A

I thought I'd take it easy today as there was not much going on....

TS Bertha:
She became extratropical this morning and is currently at about 55N, 32W,
heading NE at 36 mph directly towards Iceland. There's not much rain in
this system, just some clouds and blustery winds of ~70 mph... so it will
be just another normal day in Iceland ina day or two. The NHC's last
advisory on this was at 11am this morning, but to show they are working,
she's been replaced (see below). This is my last entry on Beautiful,
Bemusing, Big, Boundless Bertha. I can barely remember when she first
began! The End.

TS Cristobal:
He is currently about 35N, 76W and in a few hours will be moving away from
the US. His heading is NE at 8mph, and he has winds of about 45 mph (TS:
39-74 mph). His convection has been weak for most of the last 24 hours,
but it has picked up this afternoon - most of the strongest activity
remains off-shore though (off the NC coast). For the most part, I think it
was a windy day in the Carolinas - maybe a few thunderstorms here and
there, but nothing too major. He is over water temperatures of 29 deg C,
and as he moves away from the coast there is a chance for some
intensification.

TS Dolly:
Formally known as 'The Blob', this storm went straight past the Tropical
Depression designation to a named Tropical Storm. We know she's had a lot
of convection, heavy and large thunderstorms etc since the beginning. But
this morning a plane found some closed circulation in the system and a
buoy reported sustained tropical force winds over a period of 4 hours. Her
circulation is not quite as strong as it was when she was named, but the
convection is still really severe, so she will remain a TS. Her winds are
around 45 mph, but I think that may increase a bit before landfall in the
Yucutan overnight. She is over very warm waters of 29-32 deg C, the warm
waters are deep, and she is in a low wind shear environment. Her
intensification will depend on how quickly she gets to the Yucutan
Peninsula and how long she stays over land - which will inhibit
intensification. There are strong thunderstorms over Cuba and the Caymans
at the moment.

The forecast track takes her over the northern Yucutan, then out into the
Gulf and towards the Mexico/Texas border on wednesday afternoon. The
waters are also warm over the Gulf so she may intensify further and the
models all currently predict her becoming a hurricane. She's currently
somewhere around 19N, 85W, but the center is difficult to see because she
is not very well organized. It almost looks like the center is a little
north of the official one (closer to 20N, 85W), but they got their
information by flying through the system so I will go with that. The
pressure maps I am looking at show that there is a high pressure that is
currently siting over the Gulf, extending down into Mexico. Unless that
changes tomorrow, there's a chance that she will clip the Yucutan
peninsula and then take a more W-NW path than the NW one currently
forecast, taking her into Mexico. In which case, she may not have time to
intensify to hurricane strength after crossing the Yucutan.

I'm sure there will be more fun and games tomorrow...
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Bertha, TS Cristobal and The Blob: July 19 Update B

Quick update...

TS Bertha:
She's slowly degrading and no longer has an eye. Located at 45.7N, 41.8W,
she is racing NE at 24 mph. Winds are 70 mph, so she is still a strong TS
(winds: 39-74mph). Given the colder waters it is unlikely she will get
stronger from this point out.

TS Cristobal:
Formally TD 3, he was named this morning when he had some better
convection. Although there is still some good circulation with this
system, the convection has been decreasing all day and he looks quite
ragged at the moment - he barely looks like a TS actually. He is centered
(according to the NHC) at 33.4N, 77.5W and is moving NE at 6mph. Winds are
45mph, so he is a fairly weak TS. The track takes him close to Cape
Hatteras in less than 24 hours. I think they will send in another plane in
the morning to see what's going on.

The Blob:
There is still some circulation in the lower atmosphere, but it is not
very well organized. It is now just southwest of Jamaica. The convection
is still strong in parts, although that has decreased this evening as
well. The convection is around 80W now, and spread from 15N-23N, so it
extends into Cuba. The high pressure has not eroded northward today, so
this may pass through the Yucutan Channel or clip the Yucatan peninsula,
but at the moment it will stay south of the US. This blob is moving W-NW
at ~15mph. It's not yet a Tropical Depression.

More tomorrow.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Bertha, Tropical Depression 3 and The Blob: July 19 Update A

Tropical Depression 3, formerly known as 'The Blobette':

Last night the NHC upgraded this system to a TD. It has winds of 35 mph, a
central pressure of 1007 mb and is moving NE at 7mph. They say it's
current center of circulation is 32.6N, 78.5W, but it is not very well
developed so it is difficult for me to confirm that. This is a little east
of their previous assessment of the center, which is why the track has
been shifted east and slightly away from the coast. In my opinion,
yesterday it was closer to land which is why it was not developing much,
but it has actually shifted slightly away from land (eastward) - enough so
that now it is completely over the Gulf Stream and over waters of 28-30
deg C, and consequently the convection and circulation have improved and
it has grown in areal extent, with clouds extending south into the
northern Bahamas. There is some circulation (vorticity) in the lower and
mid levels of the troposphere.

A number of factors will now allow this storm to intensify:
1. it is not as close to land (although it is still quite close)
2. it is over waters of 28-30 deg C
3. warm waters of 26 deg C can be found at depths of around 75m
4. there is very little wind shear - now and over the next couple of days

It looks like it will be a Tropical Storm (wind range: 39-73mph) by the
end of today - this is in agreement with the NHC forecast - and the
unknown part is will it eventually become a hurricane during its life. A
plane is on its way into the storm to investigate. So far, most of the
really heavy convection has remained off-shore. The next named storm is
Cristobal, a guys name. So our "blobette" will become a he-storm :)

The Blob:
This is still a really intense mass of convective activity over the
northern Caribbean. The convection now covers Jamaica and Cuba - lots of
rain, thunder, lightning. Clouds from this have extended northwards to
cover the southern Bahamas as well - but not as much rain yet. There is
still some low level circulation, which interestingly is south of Jamaica
although most of the convection is in a N-S direction north of the
circulation. According to the NHC, it is moving W-NW at 15 mph. The
convection is over the warmest waters of the Caribbean ranging from 28-32
deg C. The best thing about this Blob is that it is helping to transfer
some heat from the ocean to the atmosphere and over land through rainfall,
without actually being a full-fledged tropical storm with associated
strong winds. It is still worth keeping an eye on it. The computer models
have shifted their track slightly northward, which is what I was
expecting. We still need to keep an eye on this in case it develops and
there is a chance it could enter the Gulf.

For those of you who read this and pay attention (and apparently some of
you do, although I'm not sure why), you may have noticed I mentioned the
Bahamas a couple of times already... well in a few hours, the clouds from
TD 3 and from The Blob will meet. These are just clouds and water vapor
from the two systems, so I don't think there will be very stormy weather
(unlike the Hollywood version of something like this), but it's
interesting to see this rendezvous over the Bahamas.

Hurricane Bertha:
If you ask most men, they will tell you that women are a mystery. That
also applies to Bertha. She is maintaining herself as a hurricane, albeit
a weak one with winds of 75 mph (cat 1: 74-95mph) but she looks good :)
She's now a hurricane not because of the ocean environment, where
temperatures are cold for a storm at 23-25 deg C, but because of the
atmospheric conditions. I don't think anyone in the hurricane science
community really knows why she is still so strong - again she demonstrates
to us that we still have a lot to learn about tropical storms and what
makes them tick. She is also showing us that a tropical storm is truly a
mix of ocean and atmosphere. I think her final alliteration will end up
being 'Bemusing Bertha'.

She's at about 43.1N, 45.4W and heading NE at a fast 25 mph. There is not
much in the way of heavy convection, but there are a lot of clouds
(without rain) which give her a beautiful image on satellite pictures.

More on these later.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Bertha, the Blob and Blobette: July 18 Update B

Have you ever had one of those nightmares that just keeps on going and
going and going...? I'm just asking for no particular reason. You know.
Nothing to do with Bertha at all. Certainly nothing at all whatsoever to
do with her becoming a hurricane AGAIN.

Hurricane Bertha:
Yes, she intensified a bit (just a bit though) since the last message. I
know, I said it was unlikely she would intensify too much because she
was passing over colder waters. Silly me. A part of her (to the south)
is still interacting with warmer waters of 26-27 deg C. This morning she
had winds of 65 mph and now her winds are near 75 mph (cat 1 hurricane
range: 74-95 mph), central pressure 989 mb. So she is barely a
hurricane, and the only reason I agree with her upgrade is because she
has a big, somewhat cloudy, eye and looks like a hurricane. There is not
a lot of strong convection in this system and she's been in a low wind
shear environment. It looks like she's heading into higher wind shear,
which combined with the cooler temperatures should bring her back to TS.
However, she is now at 37.6N, 50.6W, moving NE (or NNE) at 22mph. Once
she's completely over cold waters she will become an extratropical
system as opposed to a tropical system, so she may still be quite windy
for a few more days.

For those who asked, the research vessel that's out there in the
Atlantic is 168 ft in length, 33 ft wide. Not too bad. Not too great
either. Well, at least they had an adventure ("always look on the bright
side of life, de-du, de-du, de-du de-du de-du" - Monty Python :) ).

The Blob:
The hurricane plane went to investigate this mass of clouds in the
Caribbean this afternoon and came back with reports of no closed
circulation. Now that I have all my usual data back, I can see that
there is some circulation but it is confined to the lower levels of the
atmosphere. This system still has the most convective activity - still
really severe thunderstorms - centered somewhere around 16N, 70-72W.
That mass is definitely heading in a NW direction - I still think it
will be north of the computer model tracks. Water temps are 27-29 deg C.

The Blobette:
This mass of clouds is still hanging mostly off the GA/SC/NC coast. The
convection has decreased a bit this afternoon. It still doesn't look
like too much rain is going to fall on GA and the Carolinas - most will
stay off-shore. It also has low-level circulation, centered somewhere
around 31N 80W, but nothing in the middle or higher levels of the
troposphere (which is the lowest level of our Atmosphere and extends
about 15-16km above the earth's surface in the tropics). Water
temperatures here are about 28-30 deg C.

---
I *just* got an email from the ship: "it's died right off in the last
few hours and is beautiful now. and yes we have the right tea." Ummm...
just to explain that last comment... being British and knowing they had
a rough few days, I suggested they should "have a cup of tea". What else
would I suggest? Thank goodness they have the right sort on board!
(P.G. Tips - there's no other ... hey, I should be get money from the
company for advertising I think. Or at least a few boxes of P.G. Tips tea.).

On that note I think I'll sign off. Have a good evening. Enjoy a cup of
tea ;)
I'll be back tomorrow.
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Bertha, the Blob and Blobette: July 18 Update A

Aaaghhh... the internet connection to one of the data sites is down....
aaaghhh... I NEED that data (cookie monster-esque person comes out of
her shell).
Deep breath. O.k., I'm back.

So, despite not having a full suite of information at my fingertips, I
am still going to send out a report now, and most definitely one or more
later today because everyone should keep an eye on the Blob and Blobette
I've been talking about for the past couple of days. But first...

... TS Bertha:
She's currently at 36.5N, 52W and speeding along at 18mph in a NE
direction and away from land. She intensified a little bit, which is not
surprising given that she was passing over warmer waters so he current
winds are at 65mph (TS range: 39-73mph). But it's unlikely she will
intensify much more because she's now passing over cooler sea surface
temps of 25-26 deg C. Generally, if all other things were favorable,
water temperatures of 26.5 deg C are needed to really keep a system
going. Consequently the convective activity is slowly decreasing and is
fairly weak at this point. She still has good circulation.

The research cruise are currently experiencing 'nice calm seas' of 8-10
ft... compared to the 'slightly choppy' 16-20ft seas they had yesterday
(by the way guys, how big is your boat??). They changed their science
plan a bit to take advantage of Big Bustling Bertha and have gone
looking for interesting upper water column impacts. I suppose they may
as well get something out of this, other than a weight loss program I mean.

The Blobette:
This is currently centered just off the GA coast. Circulation has
improved and looks to be somewhere around 31.5N, 80.7W, convection has
improved - but only over the eastern side where it's interacting with
the Gulf Stream and water temperatures of 28-30 deg C. The proximity to
land will inhibit too much growth, but the path it looks like it will
take at the moment is still along the east coast - GA, SC and NC,
basically right along the axes of the Gulf Stream. Those who've been
reading this for a couple of days will not be surprised by any of this.
I am not sure if it will create too many storms overland - most of the
convection is offshore and has been for the past day. The NHC issued a
special tropical disturbance statement on this system this morning and
will send in a plane tomorrow to investigate if necessary. It's not yet
officially a TD.

The Blob:
The mass of cloudiness and really strong convection that was skirting
the northern edge of S. America has moved a little more northwards -
because as I said yesterday, the high pressure that was keeping it to
the south is eroding northwards. It is difficult to find the center of
circulation, and without my full set of tools I can't say much about
that yet. The main area of convection is now around 15N, 70W. There are
some very strong thunderstorms in this area. The water temperatures
beneath are currently 27-28 deg C, but the warm waters in the Caribbean
are deep under the surface (26 deg C down to around 100m). Although the
computer model tracks are all keeping this to the south of Jamaica and
into the Yucatan (which I would have agreed with yesterday), given the
pressure fields I see today, if this develops into something, I think it
may actually pass north of Jamaica and interact with Cuba. The waters in
that entire northern Caribbean region are the warmest anywhere from the
eastern Atlantic to the Gulf, so this going to be an interesting 'Blob'
to watch. At it's current speed, it should pass the Jamaica region
around Sunday - but if you are heading there on Monday your flight may
be delayed... Again, a special tropical disturbance statement was issued
by the NHC at 11.25am, and they are sending in a plane to investigate
this afternoon. It is not yet officially a TD either.

More later ... when I'll have more data hopefully... need more data...
need more data... and a working, reliable crystal ball wouldn't hurt
either... :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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