Tuesday, August 12, 2008

The Blobette and the Blob: August 12 Update A

Hello everyone... some of you have asked about the blobs in the Atlantic
so here we go.

The Blobette: This is the mass of convection closest to the Caribbean
that's been struggling to get going for the past few days. It finally
started to pick up steam yesterday (a good pun is its own reword ;)).
Circulation is in the lower parts of the troposphere only at the moment,
but there is definite circulation and it is centered somewhere around
16-17N, 50W. The NHC may send a plane in today if they think they need
more accurate information. It looks close to being a Tropical Depression
(winds of 23-38 mph) - the convection is certainly strong enough and has
been for over 12 hours now.

It is moving W-NW at 10-15 mph as it follows the southern edge of a high
pressure system in the Atlantic (remember, clockwise movement around a
high in the northern hemisphere). At the moment the pressure fields
suggest that it will stay out in the Atlantic instead of entering the
Caribbean, but the VIs may get some rain from this system in a couple of
days. I got a note from St. Thomas yesterday saying that the rain would be
welcome to cool things down.

Water temperatures are around 27 deg C, but there is a bit of wind shear
and a lot of dry dusty air around which has been hindering its

The Blob: This is the one south-west of the Cape Verde islands, located at
around 11N, 30W. It also has some low level circulation and a broader,
less organized, area of convection. I won't mention this one again until
it looks like its getting its act together.

Neither of these are officially even Tropical Depressions yet.

Later gators,

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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