Sunday, August 03, 2008

Tropical Storm Eduardo: August 3 Update A

Aaah... I hope you all had a nice little break there? Got caught up, maybe
read something interesting and well-written? (not like this ;) ) But now
I'm back and so is our next little storm. Alas, the holiday is over.

As you have all probably heard by now, Tropical Storm Eduardo came into
being early this evening in the northern Gulf, just south of the
Mississippi/Alabama coastline. He began developing yesterday when a low
pressure system moved off the northern Florida coast and into the Gulf
where water temperatures are over 29 deg C. There was (and still is) only
low level circulation, but today the circulation shifted farther from land
so he's had a chance to develop.

He is currently at 28.1N, 88.2W, just south of the Mississippi River
Delta, and has winds of 50 mph (TS wind range: 39-73mph) so he's still a
weak storm. It looks like he has adopted a relaxed summertime southern
lifestyle because he's moving westward at a grand 4mph.

I agree with the NHC forecast; I don't see too much that will prevent him
from developing a bit more in the short-term. There is very little wind
shear, water temperatures are over 29 deg C and warm waters (over 26 deg
C) extend down to at least 50m. His very slow forward movement may
actually be one thing that will work against him because he is slowly
cooling the waters he is hovering over - we saw this with Bertha (although
I think we saw pretty much every scenario with Bertha!).

There is a lot of convection with this system but most of the heavy
rainfall is offshore - this is more of a rainmaker than a windmaker at the
moment. I had a quick look at the water levels along the coast
( and there is very little change at the moment.

The official NHC track has him making landfall in the Galveston/Houston
area on Tuesday morning as a strong TS. I don't have the best information
at the moment to comment too much on his track - I'll get my little paws
on that in the morning. But I would say that everyone in the cone should
be getting ready.

More tomorrow.

Night night,

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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