[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: October 31, Update C

Noel is no longer stationary (hurray hurray) and is moving northward away
from Cuba, ahead of the expected north-eastward turn into the Bahamas.
This is the time to watch, because he is moving away from land, is over
warm water (>28 deg C) and is temporarily in an area of slightly lower
wind shear so if he is going to grow, I agree with the NHC, it will be
within the next day. The 'center of circulation' is still on the western
edge of the convection, although not as much as removed from it as it has
been in the past few days.

The convection associated with this system is very impressive, and his
wind speed is up to 60 mph making him a moderate-to-strong storm.

That's all for today folks. I'll be back. Tomorrow. :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: October 31, Update B

Just a quick note for now, and maybe another update later this evening.

Noel is stuck just off the northern coast of Cuba - stationary storms
are not something I'm not fond of because it introduces an added level
of uncertainty in both the intensity and track forecast. He is
stationary because he is bumping up against that high that I've
mentioned over the past few days. However, I think he will be making a
move towards the north-east soon - either that or the NHC is correct in
thinking that his center might be trying to "re-form" in the center of
the convective activity over the Bahamas (north-east of his current
location). This is a complicated atmospheric situation - it is fun
trying to figure it out :)

Although there is wind shear, and he is interacting with land, his
center is stationary over warm water. His wind speed is now about 50
mph, and southeast Florida is under a Tropical Storm watch (not
warning). There is *a lot* of moisture associated with this storm -
again, all over the Bahamas at the moment (all north-east of the center
of circulation).

I sent out a website a few storms ago that allows you to look at the
water level 'live'. Go to tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov. Scroll down on the
left side until you see 'State Maps'. Click on that, then click on
Florida, then click on Virginia Key (for example) and you can see the
real-time water level, pressure decrease etc. associated with this
storm. This is a small fraction of the sort of information that a
real-time ocean observing system can provide :)

Have a fun evening!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: October 31, Update A

I was going to send out another update yesterday but there wasn't much to
add from the morning update - during the day he continued to move westward
over Cuba and it knocked some wind out of him (all puns intended :) ).

His current wind speed max is about 40 mph (TS: 39 - 73 mph), so he's
barely a TS. Actually, other than some very heavy convection over the
Bahamas, I'm not sure he would be a TS. I'm glad that the NHC know where
his center of circulation is, because from the satellite images it is
difficult to identify and from a wind-based analysis it looks like the
lower level atmospheric circulation is slightly south of Cuba, the
mid-levels are over northern Cuba, and there isn't any to speak of at the
upper levels.

He is still in a region of moderate-to-strong wind shear, so the rainfall
activity is still to the north and east of the circulation.

He is now moving in a north-northwestward direction, suggesting that he is
beginning to make that turn and is moving clockwise around that little
high pressure (from the '6' to towards the '9' if it was a clock face). He
is still over Cuba, but if the center is where the NHC says it is, he is
about to emerge off northern Cuba. Inhibiting development is the wind
shear, but he will be over warmer waters again - over 28 deg C. If he is
making 'the turn', later today he should be moving northward.

The windy weather we have been having over Florida over the past couple of
days was not because we were feeling the storm, but because of the
complicated low pressure front and stubborn high pressure system in a
relatively small area creating a big gradient in pressure - the stronger
the gradient, the stronger the wind flows. But in the next day or two, the
breezy winds will most likely be from the storm, and those of you down in
south-east Florida may experience them - currently TS winds are being felt
175 miles from the center. If he makes the northward turn, then his center
and heavy convection will stay away from south Florida. That's what to
look for today. But even if his center comes close to Florida, the
precipitation (which is what this storm is all about more than the wind)
will be to the east, and mostly offshore.

I'll send out another update today when/if things change. I guess no-one
told Noel he's here on the wrong holiday. Have a Happy Halloween.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Correction: Tropical Storm Noel: October 30, Update A

Oops...Correction:

> The computer model tracks are all over the place - the only
> thing they agree on in a curve to the north-west somewhere in the
northern
> Bahamas.

I meant to say a curve to the north and then north-east (taking it away
from the US). It's still morning here - I typed that with my eyes
half-shut ;)

Also, I might as well add that I read the latest NHC report since the last
note I sent, and the center of Noel's circulation is over Cuba still
moving westward.

J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Noel: October 30, Update A

TS Noel is still out there, with winds of about 60mph. He is moving
westward at about 12 mph and has a central pressure of 999mb.

Unfortunately, instead of heading north-north-westward or even
north-westward, he has been moving westward over the last few hours, which
means that the heavy convection that was over the Dominican Republic did
reach Haiti. He is moving westward along the southern edge of that high
pressure I mentioned yesterday. Remember, in the northern hemisphere,
movement is clockwise around a high pressure system.

The farther west he moves, the closer he comes to Florida when he makes
his north-westward turn, however, if he continues westward then he will
cross Cuba, which may be too much for him. The pressure maps show a weak
high extending into the Gulf (across Cuba), but I should hopefully get a
much better idea of what is going on later this morning when I can see the
latest data. The computer model tracks are all over the place - the only
thing they agree on in a curve to the north-west somewhere in the northern
Bahamas. I am not 100% convinced of this yet.

He is moving along the northern edge of Cuba. The water temperatures are
still over 28 deg C - this is above the 26.5 deg needed to sustain a
storm.

Now for the good news (yes, there is some):

He is moving along the northern edge of Cuba. So a part of him is
interacting with land. Continuing west will take him over Cuba. He is
still in a region of moderate wind sheer, so the convection is mostly on
the north and east side of the circulation center.

The upper atmospheric levels of circulation are slightly removed from the
lower and mid levels, which should help inhibit development.

I'll send out another update later today. Let me know if you have any
questions.

Toodles,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Noel: October 29, Update B

TS Noel is now relaxing and drinking pina coladas in the Bahamas (or
maybe that's what I wish I was doing ;) ). It's been a busy morning -
he crossed Hispaniola, had his center of circulation relocated by the
NHC to the north, and has fallen apart quite a bit because of a
combination of the mountainous terrain and higher wind shear. The
convection has decreased, and at the moment it doesn't look likely that
he will reintensify very much. His track is generally north-westward.

The circulation is still very broad and disorganized, and they are
planning on sending a plane in later today to see if they can find the
center. All the models will have to be re-initialized with the new
center location, so if you are looking at their tracks at the moment,
they will all change in a few hours.

There is a low front that is hanging out over Florida at the moment (for
those in Florida: look up, see clouds?, that's it). This is separated
from the Tropical Storm by a small high pressure system, which has been
weakening since yesterday. So at some point, if the storm hasn't already
moved northeastward out into the Atlantic, the low front should help it
on it's merry way.

Maybe one more later...
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: October 29, Update A

Good morning,

TS Noel has deteriorated even further since yesterday and now has winds
of about 45mph (TS: 39-73 mph), so he is a fairly weak system. It looks
like most of Haiti is going to get away with only a little rain as most
of the really heavy precipitation is continuing over the Dominican
Republic. Of the two sides of Hispaniola this is probably a good thing
because of the greater potential for mudslides in Haiti.

The center of Noel is about to pass over Haiti - the convection is still
to the east of where the NHC thinks the center of circulation is.
Actually, looking at the satellite images it is difficult to pinpoint an
exact center. He is moving north-northwestward at about 6mph, and will
be crossing into the Atlantic/Bahamas in the next 24 hours. I agree with
the official forecasts that have him staying in the Atlantic, east of
Florida.

More later... have a lovely day. :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Noel: October 28, Update B

Tropical Storm Noel (pronounced 'Nol' or 'Knoll' according to the National
Hurricane Center - NHC) is still a disorganized mass of heavy convection,
bringing a lot of rain to the Dominican Republic at the moment, and Haiti
soon.

Because he is not well defined, it is difficult to see where the exact
center of circulation is - circulation is over a very broad area,
encompassing portions of Hispaniola. Complicating this is that the
convection is still to the east of the circulation. He has room to move
north-northwestward for a while, and for now I agree with those tracks
that take him close to Haiti and eastern Cuba, and then to the
Atlantic/Bahamas.

The lack of organization, possibly passing over Hispaniola, and moderate
wind shear should keep him at bay, although water temperatures are over 28
deg C. Current winds are at 60 mph (TS: 39-73 mph).

Until tomorrow...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Depression 16: October 28, Update A

Well, just about one more month to go until the official end to the
season, and it's not *quite* over yet. I was quite enjoying the lovely
high wind-shear hiatus but a pesky little tropical depression has been
developing for the past few days, and is now officially TD 16 in the
north-eastern Caribbean - just south of Hispaniola.

There is some very good convective activity associated with this system,
but it is not very well organized and is still in a relatively high wind
shear environment (the convection is east/northeast of the circulation).
There is some circulation at the lower levels of the atmosphere south of
Hispaniola, but upper level circulation is a little removed and is
centered between Hispaniola and Cuba.

There's a chance that this will become a Tropical Storm. At the moment it
is a fairly week system (other than the areas where there are
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall), and I agree with the general
west-northwest movement over the next day or so. The storm is too weak and
it is too soon to say much more about the future track, other than the
intensity will depend on that track.

More soon(ish). Have a good weekend :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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