Sunday, October 28, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Depression 16: October 28, Update A

Well, just about one more month to go until the official end to the
season, and it's not *quite* over yet. I was quite enjoying the lovely
high wind-shear hiatus but a pesky little tropical depression has been
developing for the past few days, and is now officially TD 16 in the
north-eastern Caribbean - just south of Hispaniola.

There is some very good convective activity associated with this system,
but it is not very well organized and is still in a relatively high wind
shear environment (the convection is east/northeast of the circulation).
There is some circulation at the lower levels of the atmosphere south of
Hispaniola, but upper level circulation is a little removed and is
centered between Hispaniola and Cuba.

There's a chance that this will become a Tropical Storm. At the moment it
is a fairly week system (other than the areas where there are
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall), and I agree with the general
west-northwest movement over the next day or so. The storm is too weak and
it is too soon to say much more about the future track, other than the
intensity will depend on that track.

More soon(ish). Have a good weekend :)

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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