Wednesday, October 31, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: October 31, Update B

Just a quick note for now, and maybe another update later this evening.

Noel is stuck just off the northern coast of Cuba - stationary storms
are not something I'm not fond of because it introduces an added level
of uncertainty in both the intensity and track forecast. He is
stationary because he is bumping up against that high that I've
mentioned over the past few days. However, I think he will be making a
move towards the north-east soon - either that or the NHC is correct in
thinking that his center might be trying to "re-form" in the center of
the convective activity over the Bahamas (north-east of his current
location). This is a complicated atmospheric situation - it is fun
trying to figure it out :)

Although there is wind shear, and he is interacting with land, his
center is stationary over warm water. His wind speed is now about 50
mph, and southeast Florida is under a Tropical Storm watch (not
warning). There is *a lot* of moisture associated with this storm -
again, all over the Bahamas at the moment (all north-east of the center
of circulation).

I sent out a website a few storms ago that allows you to look at the
water level 'live'. Go to Scroll down on the
left side until you see 'State Maps'. Click on that, then click on
Florida, then click on Virginia Key (for example) and you can see the
real-time water level, pressure decrease etc. associated with this
storm. This is a small fraction of the sort of information that a
real-time ocean observing system can provide :)

Have a fun evening!

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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