Tuesday, October 30, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Noel: October 30, Update A

TS Noel is still out there, with winds of about 60mph. He is moving
westward at about 12 mph and has a central pressure of 999mb.

Unfortunately, instead of heading north-north-westward or even
north-westward, he has been moving westward over the last few hours, which
means that the heavy convection that was over the Dominican Republic did
reach Haiti. He is moving westward along the southern edge of that high
pressure I mentioned yesterday. Remember, in the northern hemisphere,
movement is clockwise around a high pressure system.

The farther west he moves, the closer he comes to Florida when he makes
his north-westward turn, however, if he continues westward then he will
cross Cuba, which may be too much for him. The pressure maps show a weak
high extending into the Gulf (across Cuba), but I should hopefully get a
much better idea of what is going on later this morning when I can see the
latest data. The computer model tracks are all over the place - the only
thing they agree on in a curve to the north-west somewhere in the northern
Bahamas. I am not 100% convinced of this yet.

He is moving along the northern edge of Cuba. The water temperatures are
still over 28 deg C - this is above the 26.5 deg needed to sustain a

Now for the good news (yes, there is some):

He is moving along the northern edge of Cuba. So a part of him is
interacting with land. Continuing west will take him over Cuba. He is
still in a region of moderate wind sheer, so the convection is mostly on
the north and east side of the circulation center.

The upper atmospheric levels of circulation are slightly removed from the
lower and mid levels, which should help inhibit development.

I'll send out another update later today. Let me know if you have any


Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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