Sunday, October 28, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Noel: October 28, Update B

Tropical Storm Noel (pronounced 'Nol' or 'Knoll' according to the National
Hurricane Center - NHC) is still a disorganized mass of heavy convection,
bringing a lot of rain to the Dominican Republic at the moment, and Haiti

Because he is not well defined, it is difficult to see where the exact
center of circulation is - circulation is over a very broad area,
encompassing portions of Hispaniola. Complicating this is that the
convection is still to the east of the circulation. He has room to move
north-northwestward for a while, and for now I agree with those tracks
that take him close to Haiti and eastern Cuba, and then to the

The lack of organization, possibly passing over Hispaniola, and moderate
wind shear should keep him at bay, although water temperatures are over 28
deg C. Current winds are at 60 mph (TS: 39-73 mph).

Until tomorrow...

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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