Monday, October 29, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Noel: October 29, Update B

TS Noel is now relaxing and drinking pina coladas in the Bahamas (or
maybe that's what I wish I was doing ;) ). It's been a busy morning -
he crossed Hispaniola, had his center of circulation relocated by the
NHC to the north, and has fallen apart quite a bit because of a
combination of the mountainous terrain and higher wind shear. The
convection has decreased, and at the moment it doesn't look likely that
he will reintensify very much. His track is generally north-westward.

The circulation is still very broad and disorganized, and they are
planning on sending a plane in later today to see if they can find the
center. All the models will have to be re-initialized with the new
center location, so if you are looking at their tracks at the moment,
they will all change in a few hours.

There is a low front that is hanging out over Florida at the moment (for
those in Florida: look up, see clouds?, that's it). This is separated
from the Tropical Storm by a small high pressure system, which has been
weakening since yesterday. So at some point, if the storm hasn't already
moved northeastward out into the Atlantic, the low front should help it
on it's merry way.

Maybe one more later...

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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