Friday, October 12, 2012

Tropical Depression Patty and Tropical Storm Rafael: October 12, Update A

Everyone who replied to my Presidential poll today was a winner! Patty did drift northeastward a bit, although she is officially stationary now. And the Atlantic Blob has been named. Gary from Florida enthusiastically said the blob would be named and also sent me the name. So here we are, welcoming the ‘R’ named storm to the Atlantic Hurricane Season – Tropical Storm Rubba da Bubba. ;-)

Tropical Depression Patty
Right. Can someone tell me how a Tropical Storm with winds of 40mph (Patty yesterday) weakened this morning and still remained a Tropical Storm with 40mph winds?? I think the NHC had an incorrect assessment of her initial winds yesterday and she was a bit stronger, because she certainly did weaken this morning. I also think they were late in naming her, and she has been a Tropical Storm for longer than a day. They sent a plane in to check her pulse today and I agree with their assessment that she is now a Tropical Depression with winds of 35mph, central pressure 1008mb. Her circulation is part of a low pressure front which is streaming off to the northeast (along with the clouds).

The convection was blown away from the center this morning, so we could easily see her center of circulation. She was closer to where the NHC had placed her yesterday. Looking at the satellite now it looks like she is moving very slowly to the northeast, although officially she is stationary. I think she’s at 25.6N, 71.9W but officially she is at 25.4N, 72.1W.

She’s not much really, so this will be my last update on Patty. Unless she regenerates.

Tropical Storm Rafael (aka Rubba da Bubba)
Rafael is a weak Tropical Storm with winds of 40mph, central pressure of 1007mb. He is not very well organized, but the circulation is now west of the Lesser Antilles with most of the convection to the east of the center and over the islands. Officially he is at 15.4N, 63.4W, moving NW at 10mph. Because he is not well organized it is difficult to pinpoint an exact center of circulation so I will go with the NHC assessment for now.  The daytime satellite images will make this a little clearer.

Although he is a bit messy he does have a lot of convection and some of it is very strong as you can see in this satellite image (the red and gray parts are very strong thunderstorms):

The entire Lesser Antilles are covered in clouds, with most getting buckets of rain and thunderstorms.

He will continue north-northwestward, clockwise around a high pressure in the Atlantic, towards Patty. This will take his center close to/over the US Virgin Islands within 24 hours (difficult to tell because difficult to find a good center) – he will still be a Tropical Storm at that point, although he may be a bit stronger than he is at the moment.

Tom on St. Thomas said that the winds have been brisk there for two days, but they are hoping for rain after the driest September since records began. I also hear (indirectly) from Julie on St. Croix that the weather is deteriorating. It will get windy with rain and possible thundery weather over the next couple of days on the VIs, but the bulk of the worst weather will remain to the east (I think).

I’ll be back in the morning.

Blogs archived at
Twitter @JyovianStorm

DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

No comments: