Friday, September 06, 2019

Hurricane Dorian Gray and Tropical Storm Gabrielle: September 5, Update A

Thursday... "I never could get the hang of Thursdays." (Arthur Dent/Douglas Adams).

Hurricane Dorian Gray
The menace that is Dorian is still traveling the US east coast and is currently at 33.8N, 77.4W, heading NE at a much more respectable speed of 13mph. He continues to bring windy and wet weather to a good portion of that coastline as we can see in this infrared satellite image. 

The red/orange areas that moved on-shore are an indication that parts of the Carolina's got some very heavy convection - including severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, although most of the area is under clouds or simply rain. He is now officially a mid-size cat 2 storm (cat 2 range: 95-110mph) with winds of 100mph, central pressure of 958mb. You can clearly see that strong wind shear is pulling the clouds away to the northeast. This, combined with cooler waters will mean he'll steadily decrease in intensity, but will still be a hurricane for at least another day.

As before, between the storm surge and the rain, there is flooding. From the data, it looks like Wilmington, North Carolina, is currently under around 1.5-2ft of storm surge:

Although the pressure is still dropping: 
(in case you missed how to look at storms surge along the US coast, it's in this post:

The forecast track is pretty much the same as yesterday as he heads up to Canada. 
Long before he gets there though, he'll transition from being a tropical storm to an extratropical storm (he'll be moving forward closer to (or faster than) 20 mph by then). However, they still have him as a hurricane up north because they think the winds will be close to (if not) hurricane strength. 

Tropical Storm Gabrielle
She's way out there in the Atlantic at 24.3N, 36.6W, heading NW at 14mph. Winds are now estimated to be as low as 40mph, central pressure is 1004 mb - this makes her barely a Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). I would agree with this. Since yesterday, her circulation in the upper troposphere has decreased, so she's really only got good circulation in the lowest levels of the troposphere now. Also, she doesn't have much in the way of rain really... 

(satellite imagery from 

This will be my last update on Gabrielle unless she picks her socks up... I'll keep an eye on her though, just in case. 

That's it for today, kids. Stay safe out there - Dorian may be getting weaker, but he's still a hurricane!  

Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.

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