Tropical Storms Jerry, Karen, and Lorenzo: September 25, Update A

Not much time to dilly dally today, but a quick note that I'm not sure that my old listserve method of delivery is functioning anymore (it was bound to go bye-bye at some point - it has been almost 14 years!). So, here am I, competing with cat videos for your attention on social media... (I'd prefer to be watching the cat videos too actually). :-) 

Tropical Storm Jerry

He's fairly weak now, which is a jolly good thing for Bermuda. Winds are currently 45mph, central pressure is 996mb. This makes him a very weak Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). He's a fairly ragged looking little fella:

He's that very lightly grey swirling group of clouds just to the west of Bermuda, which is that little white speck north of Puerto Rico, which is that island under that very very dark red area in the Caribbean, which is Tropical Storm Karen. 

His center is at 31.4N, 68.7W, and he's heading NNE at a very slow 5mph. The wind shear and dry air did really take its toll on Jerry, so any convection he does have is now to his east. He'll pass close to Bermuda, but looks like the center will stay to the north tomorrow, which is groovy:

So for Bermuda, it'll be a bit of a blustery day (not very strong though) but not much more of the raindrop things. Unlike the situation on Puerto Rico and the VIs with TS Karen today...

(This is most likely my last update on Jerry). 

Tropical Storm Karen

Another weak Tropical Storm, which just like Jerry, also had winds of 45mph, central pressure of 1002mb. However, as I mentioned yesterday, she had some very warm and deep-warm water to cross in the northern Caribbean, which meant she would have a lot of moisture to pick up and dump onto the mountainous terrains of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. We see this in the infrared imagery - the dark red over Puerto Rico is strong, torrential and thundery downpours and I'm sure it's quite a flooded mudslide soggy mess on the US VIs and Puerto Rico.  

TS Karen is currently at 19.1N, 65.0W, heading NNE at 14mph. Earlier today, she passed close to (or made landfall in) Vieques, and then Culebra. She's now officially cleared the islands, however her convection is still very strong as we can see in the IR imagery. Puerto Rico is having a bad 24 hours - there was a 6.0 magnitude earthquake near the island yesterday evening, and this deluge today.  

They are not quite out of it yet with that heavy convection still over the island, so we'll know the full extent of the impact tomorrow. She is now heading into the Atlantic... 

... but I see Bermuda has put up a Force Field which she will get to on Thursday and will stop her from progressing north, thus shielding themselves from windy weather that inhibits their golfing (one day I really have to visit as friends have planted an image in my head that this is all they do, apparently). We'll revisit the real reason why she is going to behave so oddly when I have a bit more time. 

Tropical Storm Lorenzo

Meanwhile, out in the Atlantic is the actual strong storm of today (fortunately far from anyone). Lorenzo now has estimated winds of 70mph, and an estimated central pressure of 993mb. I think he is much stronger than this - easily a cat 1 hurricane as I mentioned yesterday because his circulation is strong in all levels of the troposphere. He has decent convection:

He is currently at 13.2N, 32.4W, heading WNW at 16mph, and the NHC will upgrade him soon according to their forecast:

I can see his track heading northward now in the pressure fields, so I agree with the NHC forecast track for Lorenzo.

That's all for today, we can go back to our cat videos... Stay safe out there! 

Ciao for now,

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.
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