Wednesday, September 04, 2019

Hurricane Dorian Gray, TS Fernand, Atlantic Blobette, and the Atlantic Blob: September 3, Update A

I'm a little spaceship-lagged, but I've returned to Planet Earth. With wine and cheese.

Hurricane Dorian Gray
The Bahamas really took a hit - it's very bad over there (British Understatement), however the full extent won't be known for a few days. Here is a before/after satellite photo (I got these from The Telegraph, but they are all over the internet):

On Monday: 

Photo credit: ICEYE SATELLITE PHOTO (photo taken midday Monday from the ICEYE-X2 satellite),

The Bahamas faced the worst case scenario - a cat 5 hurricane stalling over them. But the little slivers of land known as Grand Bahama and Great Abacos, plus that very shallow water and Dorian stalling really helped the US. I was expecting him to pass right over, but get reduced by a category. By stalling, he dropped down three categories.

Dorian Gray is now a strong cat 2 storm with winds of 110mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph), central pressure 961mb. His infrared satellite imagery really shows how much of a hit he took as he loitered over the Bahamas:
(satellite imagery from because downloading from NOAA takes way too long).

We see that most of the convection is just rain now, not that really strong convection we saw with the cat 4 or 5. He still has an eye, and that's because his circulation is very strong still - over the entire troposphere. I would agree with his cat 2 status based on the convection and his circulation. 

At least he's finally on the move! Currently he's at 28.6N, 76 W, heading NNW at 7mph. The track takes him along the eastern seaboard:
He is under some wind shear, so I don't think he'll be a cat 2 as you know it as he passes by as he gets beyond Florida. Here's the wind shear map (from the excellent U. Wisconsin CMISS website ): 
At first glance it *may* be a little tricky (British Understatement part deux) to see what this shows. If you locate the storm (gray clouds) - towards the left side of the image in the top half, you can see that there are some red lines over him - this is the wind shear. Green means low wind shear, red means strong wind shear. It looks like there is strong shear all the way up the east coast, which will take its toll. The thing that is working against that is the deep warm water of the Florida Current and Gulf Stream that is underneath, giving him plenty of yummy energy to pull from. It's a battle between the ocean and atmosphere! 

Regardless, there will be storm surge to his north as the storm is pushing water on-shore. To check what the levels are along the coast, go to (for instructions, read the Technical Alert! here: 

And of course, always listen to your local emergency managers as they know the area and would have the best guidance on what to do.

Tropical Storm Fernand
I see that Mother Nature went bananas with the coloring pens: 
But it is almost the peak of the hurricane season, so why shouldn't she? 

Tropical Storm Fernand was the Gulf of Mexico Blob that didn't look very impressive yesterday. (And as an aside, I made a mistake on the next name as I forgot about the very brief Tropical Storm Erin - thanks to Alina M. for alerting me to this goof! Too much travel, not en0ugh sitting at home with glasses of wine! ;-)). He isn't a very strong storm - winds are 50mph, central pressure is 1000mb (TS range: 39-74mph). He is currently at 23.2N, 96.4W, heading W at a very slow 3mph. The forecast is for him to make landfall in Mexico tomorrow: 
It's a relatively sparsely populated area and he'll be more of a nice cooling than anything else. 

Tropical Depression Eight
This was the Atlantic Blobette from yesterday. She actually has the same amount of circulation as Tropical Storm Fernand, so I would actually name her. Unless another storm snuck in when I wasn't looking. the next name is Gabrielle. Winds are currently 35mph, central pressure is estimated to be 1006mb. She's at 19.1N, 32.8W, and she's heading NW at 8mph. 

Atlantic Blob
There's ANOTHER blob - currently somewhere around 32N, 65W. She is hanging out near Bermuda (hello Bermuda friends!) and is just deciding what she wants to be when she grows up. 

That was a bunch, but more on Hurricane Dorian and friends tomorrow. Time for another glass of wine I think. Stay safe Florida, Georgia, and Carolinas pals! 

Ciao for now,

Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.

No comments: