Sunday, September 01, 2019

Hurricane Dorian: September 1, Update A

Yikes! I don't think there's enough wine for today!!

Hurricane Dorian is now the strongest storm we know about to hit the Bahamas. He is currently passing directly over Abacos as a very strong cat 5 storm with winds of 185mph, central pressure of 910mb (cat 5 range > 156mph). You can see that huge ring of very strong convection around that very clear eye. Unfortunately he is so strong that the sliver of land he is crossing is not making much impact. 

His eye is just entering the area where the water is very shallow so, as he crosses towards Grand Bahama, his intensity should decrease a little but he will still be a monster of a storm. 

He is at 26.6N, 77.2W, heading W at a slow 7mph. Dorian is moving quite slowly, which is very bad few days for the Bahamas as they get that strong storm for a couple of days. The forecast track takes him over Grand Bahama and then he is supposed to turn to the north. 

However... we don't know exactly where that turn will occur so please pay attention to the entire cone as he could go anywhere in there - he could get to Florida and then turn, or he could turn sooner and go into South Carolina. If you are anywhere in that cone, be prepared. From the limited pressure field data I have, at the moment it looks like he will continue to move to the west which brings him closer to Florida and also over the Florida Current (where the water is warm and deep - which, if you remember from a few days ago, means he can intensify). 

Also keep in mind that there is still a possibility that the cone will shift a little more to the west - currently I would rely on the NHC track forecast for the next 24 hours but not beyond that. Please pay attention to your local emergency managers as they know your local situation!!

>Science History Alert!< As you know, Hurricane intensity is defined according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale. A cat 5 storm is one with winds equal or greater than 157mph - there is no upper limit. I sometimes get asked why we don't have a cat 6 level for storms that are this strong. That's because the categories are based on wind speed and how much structural damage they cause. This scale was developed by Herbert Saffir - a civili engineer - and Robert Simpson - a meteorologist. Because this scale is based on level of destruction,  each category does not have the same wind range. A category 5 by definition means 'Total Annihilation' - you can't get worse than that. >End Science History Alert!<

That's it for now. Thinking of the Bahamas!

Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.

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