Hurricane Dorian Gray, the remains of Tropical Storm Fernand, Tropical Storm Gabrielle, and the Atlantic Blob: September 4, Update A

So. Much. Stuff. 

But 'tis approaching the peak of Hurricane Season, with the week of Sept 10th statistically being the turning point in a typical season... 

Hurricane Dorian Gray

He's currently at 31.3N, 79.6W, heading N at a slowish clip of 7mph (although this is much faster than traffic on the highways in Los Angeles at rush hour). He is skirting the coast, but on his current northward path, it looks like he will get quite close to Charleston, South Carolina (and may actually get onto land in some places):

He is officially a weak cat 3 storm again with winds of 115mph (cat 3 range: 111 - 129mph), central pressure 957mb. His circulation is still very strong at all levels of the troposphere, so although the wind shear took a little toll, that deep warm water underneath him in the Gulf Stream has kept him going. Fortunately, most of the really bad weather that is under the red part in the infrared satellite imagery below (heavy thunderstorms, tornadoes etc.) is staying offshore: 

(it's not your screen - the satellite imagery has a white screen that rolls through (a glitch) - don't worry about it, I think it's just window wipers cleaning the satellite lens... ;-)). 

I agree with the NHC on their assessment that he will continue to get weaker as he moves further north, but that he will remain at hurricane strength winds as he gets to Canada - he just won't have the really bad convection as he gets there. 

Water is going to be the biggest issue in the Carolinas - storm surge plus some places which will get a few buckets of rain. A few places along the coast are close to 1ft above normal (from tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov). 

Not too much more to say on Dorian Gray for now as he's behaving pretty much as expected. 

Tropical Storm Fernand

He also behaved as expected and made landfall in Mexico this evening. He wasn't a very strong storm at all, and mostly brought rain (which, over the mountains can cause flooding) - he's now inland and just a mass of clouds. This is my last post on this little guy. 

Tropical Storm Gabrielle

She was named today and is currently at 21.;5N, 34.4W, heading NW at 7mph. 

Officially she's a weak Tropical Storm with winds of 50mph (TS range: 39-73mph), and central pressure is estimated to be 1002mb. I think she's actually stronger than that. She has decent circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but she also has some in the upper levels, which is an indication of a storm approaching hurricane strength. I would estimate that she's closer to 65-70mph at this point. 

Her forecast track takes her well away from any land:

And no-where near Bermuda at 5 days... so, er, get your wellie boots ready just in case. ;-) 

Atlantic Blob

This one is currently somewhere around 34N, 62W, so he's already extra-tropical really as the tropics are between 30N and 30 S! Not sure he'll develop into much of a muchness, but I'll keep a quarter of an eye on him. If he were to become something, we'd call him Humberto because that's a lovely name. :-) 

It's nap time here so that's it for today. Until tomorrow. 

Be safe my friends in the Carolinas (and along the US east coast)!

J. 

Twitter: jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.
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