Hurricane Dorian Gray, the Atlantic Blobette, and the Gulf of Mexico Blob: September 2, Update A

Just got time for a quick(ish) post today. 

Hurricane Dorian Gray

The bad news is, of course, that Hurricane Dorian Gray stalled over Grand Bahama as a major storm for the entire day. He is currently at 26.8N, 78.4W, heading no-where because he is stationary:

 

The good news is that his interaction with land and the shallow/cool waters that I showed you a few days ago did their job and he is now a mid-sized cat 4 storm with winds of 140mph, central pressure 942mb (cat 4 range: 130-156mph). From his infrared satellite imagery (grabbed today from the tropicaltidbits.com website - thanks Bryan B. for passing that along) over just the last few hours, we can see further weakening - the area of heavy convection is not quite so solid as it has been, and it looks like there is a sliver of drier air coming into the system from the northwest. His eye also doesn't look as circular as it has been. However, it is a solid eye and his circulation is very good over the entire troposphere, so he's definitely a strong cat 3 or weak cat 4 at this point. 

Because he is stationary, although we know he'll generally move WNW and then NW, exactly where he will go once the high pressure around him has shifted is a little tricky (see Science Alert! in this post for why a storm would stall: https://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2019/08/hurricane-dorian-gray-august-30-update-a.html):

This is why there is still quite a large cone of uncertainty, even for the next 12 hours (by which time they expect him to start moving - that's the thing to look out for next). Which means there is still a chance he could make landfall in Florida, so please listen to your emergency managers. 

Although he is weakening at the moment, he still has to cross the Florida Current (as discussed a few days ago), which will give him some fuel to gain strength... but the good news is that there is some wind shear just to his northwest, which will work against the influence of the Florida Current. 

Atlantic Blobette

This little blobette is currently at around 16N, 30W, heading northwestward. She has good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, so she may already be a Tropical Storm actually! She's still a little way out from the Caribbean, so more on her maybe tomorrow. Next name is Erin!

Gulf of Mexico Blob

This guy is at around 23N, 93W and is generally heading westward. The circulation isn't quite there yet, so this is definitely just a blob for now. 

Must run, but I will try and get back tomorrow for a quick update - intergalactic travel day though, so we'll see.
 

Stay safe! Be good!

J. 

(p.s. just a reminder from my season's opening post: 

9. I stopped adding people to the listserve a few years ago so if you have friends who want to get updates, please can you direct them to the website (http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com). This is part of my very complicated top-secret grand plan to take over the world (bwa haa haa = evil laughter in case you were wondering) - which I have been working at for at least 7 years now, but I'm not sure it's going very well really. :-))

Twitter: jyovianstorm

--------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast. This is not an official forecast.
--------------------------------------