Thursday, August 16, 2012

Tropical Storm Gordon: August 16, Update A

This evening I was minding my own business and I wandered into an impromptu mini single-malt scotch tasting. Funny how these things just happen. On the menu was a 12 year old Glenlivet, and two 10 year olds: a Glengoyne and a Speyburn. But rest assured that it won’t have any impact on this update whatsoever. Now, what was I saying? ;-)

Tropical Storm Gordon is not a bad looking Tropical Storm really. His center is at 34.7W, 49.9W, heading East(ish) (ENE) at 17mph. Central pressure is estimated to be 995mb with a wind speed of 70mph (TS range: 39-73mph). I’m not sure I agree with the official estimate of his wind speed. Although his circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere he is actually interacting with an area of low pressure (more front-like than tropical) as well so his wind speed would be higher, but not as a tropical storm. They forecast him to reach hurricane strength by tomorrow afternoon. Here is the latest satellite image of his convection:

There is almost no convection on the south and west side because of wind shear (as you can see with the clouds being mostly to the north and east) and dry air. Unless this changes by tomorrow afternoon I really don’t think he should be classified as a hurricane! Looking at the wind shear, it looks like it should continue to increase ahead of him tomorrow so I’m really not convinced with this hurricane strength business. (I am bracing for a rant – if you see me wandering around muttering and scowling with steam coming out of my ears tomorrow, you’ll know why! ;-)). It looks like he is planning on visiting the Azores on Sunday evening as a Tropical Storm. The track looks more-or-less ok to me, so nothing to say there. I’d like to visit the Azores one day. Maybe not this Sunday though.

Now, remember that Caribbean Blob that ran into Central America? Well, according to the NHC he has crossed Nicaragua, Honduras and Mexico in the last couple of days and is now over the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf. I am looking at the data. The circulation for this system is over the land-part of Mexico, not over the Bay of Campeche. Not only that, but there isn’t much circulation in the lower half of the troposphere. There is some convection over the Bay, but the convection is mostly over Central America at the moment. Currently this er… blobette… has a 40% chance of developing into a storm. They may send in a plane to investigate tomorrow if needed. Not sure if this is needed, but I’ll keep an eye on it.

Did I stump you with what do the movies ‘Up’, ‘Moonstruck’ and ‘Jaws’ have in common? (other than they are one-word titles). J Well… <drumroll> they were all nominated for an Oscar for Best Picture, but didn’t get the award. ‘Moonstruck’ was in the 1987 line-up and lost to ‘The Last Emperor’.

More tomorrow!
Adieu,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Tropical Depression 8: August 15, Update A

This evening my random movie to watch (chosen by a friend) is Moonstruck. It's been years since I've seen this! Ok, it's not so random ... what do 'Jaws' and 'Moonstruck' (and 'Up') have in common? (something other than they are one-word movie titles). Answer tomorrow! :-)

Our little Atlantic Blobette found some new high-heeled shoes and is now Tropical Depression 8, and well on her way to er...hmm...  having a gender change and becoming Tropical Storm Gordon! 

Her/his circulation has improved since yesterday (although it took a little dip in the last few hours). Her/his convection has shown a less impressive improvement, which I would expect because s/he is still in a region of dry air and there was some wind sheer today. His (it'll do) center is at about 30N, 55.1W, central pressure is estimated to be 1013mb by the NHC  and winds are estimated to be 35mph. As expected, he shifted from a NW trajectory to a northward trajectory. He is moving northward at 18mph, and is expected to turn NE by tomorrow afternoon. I agree with this track forecast. He is also forecast to be a Tropical Storm by tomorrow. I think he is already one. 

That's it for now. It's the Opera scene. I like opera. :-)
Toddles!
J.

ps, Sent from my iPad (ooh, aaah :-)... this really does make things easier than writing from my phone, although Apple needs to get with the program so I can watch satellite images in flash!)

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Altantic Blobette and Caribbean Blob: August 14, Update A

The Caribbean Blob did get a little better organized and the convection improved, but then suddenly Central America appeared and now he is almost no more (well not actually ‘suddenly’. Central America was there all along, that ‘suddenly’ part was just for dramatic effect). Nicaragua knocked the circulation out of him and over the last few hours his convection has decreased too. This is my last entry on the Caribbean Blob.

The Atlantic Blobette (yes, the one I wasn’t going to write anything about unless she did something interesting) is still struggling to get to grips with being a teenager. She has been spluttering all day with a bit of convection here, a bit of convection there. Here is a satellite image of her at the moment – not very impressive at all, is she? There is hardly any rain (the yellow parts).

Her circulation improved very slightly today, but she is still in that dry air so she’s not really managed to do much. It looks like she is around 26.5N, 54W, heading NW (towards that little dot in the Atlantic… oh yeah, Bermuda ;-)). The NHC have increased her chances of becoming a Tropical Storm in the next 2 days to 50%. This may happen, but it looks like there is some strong wind shear ahead of her which will inhibit development and she is looking a bit pathetic. Also, it looks like she might get caught up in a low pressure front in the day or so, which may help to strengthen her winds (but this doesn’t mean she’s a tropical storm!!) and will eventually whisk her to the north and northeast. At the moment sea surface temperatures are around 28 deg C, so certainly warm enough to sustain her if she forms. Ok, ok, I suppose I’ll have to carry on about this one tomorrow.

Hey… it’s time for the long awaited <Science Alert Part Deux>! I was asked (by ‘hurricaneagle’) why storms moved so quickly across the Atlantic compared to those that are in the Gulf. In an attempt to answer this, I need to tell you about pressure fields and speed! (umm… I think I may have covered this already this season, so if it sounds familiar, please feel free to go and do the dishes or something.) Everyone else… got your cuppa tea and popcorn ready? ;-)

<Science Alert Part Deux>

Pressure fields have High and Low Pressures. For example, the semi-permanent Bermuda-Azores High I mentioned yesterday. You can imagine the highs as ‘hills’ in the atmosphere, and the lows as the ‘dips’ and ‘valleys’. So there is a topography to the pressure field but unlike the earth these atmospheric pressure areas are always changing. Now imagine the storm as a ball. If you put a ball in a valley, it will not roll up any surrounding hill. When the pressure ahead of a storm is low then it will happily move at a good speed, but if the pressure ahead becomes high (i.e. it would have to climb uphill), then it will either move around the high pressure (i.e. the track changes) and take the easiest path, or slow down until the pressure field changes again. If the pressure is high all around the storm (if the ball is in a dip), then it becomes stationary.

Generally the part of the high pressure field over the Atlantic is fairly clear cut and so a storm is not (usually) hindered by large changes in the pressure field and can move across quickly. This is the 6 o’clock portion of the clock in the diagram from yesterday. We also know this because this pressure field not only impacts storms, but also impacts the general wind field; we have a consistent trade wind that blows from east to west across the tropical Atlantic. But when we get to the curve (the 6-9 o’clock), the storm is trying to move in the north-south direction, not the east-west direction, and the pressure fields are not as steady for a number of reasons. For example, they are impacted by low pressure fronts that move from the west to the east. So storms that are in the Caribbean or Gulf maybe hindered by little areas of high pressure in front of them, which will slow them down.  I will look out for a good example of a storm to show you (assuming we have any more this season J).

<End of Science Alert Part Deux>

Time for that nap thing again. Yay! J More tomorrow!
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Monday, August 13, 2012

Caribbean Blob and Atlantic Blobette: August 13, update A

It looks like St. Thomas did get a bit of rain this morning. From Tom: “Rain came in short bursts...but enough to keep plants watered for the day”. So all is well there. Here is a picture of what I imagine the plants may look like with a spot of rain (it’s just a garden gnome. Really. ;-)):

The NHC have upped the ante since yesterday, and now both the Caribbean Blob and the Atlantic Blobette have a 20% chance of forming in the next 48 hours. Here is the latest satellite image of water vapour over the Gulf/Caribbean/tropical Atlantic:

The brown areas are dry air, everything else has water vapour and clouds of some description. The Atlantic Blobette is at around 23N, 47W and the Caribbean Blob is at around 14N, 78W. If the image of the SAL from a few days ago wasn’t enough, this shows that the Atlantic Blobette continues to be embedded in some very dry air. There is very little circulation (vorticity) in the lower (or any) part of the troposphere – and it has actually got weaker since yesterday. Anyway, no more on this one unless it does something interesting (unlikely).

The Caribbean Blob lost a lot of convection since yesterday partly because of the stronger wind shear he did battle with, partly because he was interacting with the South America landmass, and partly because of the dry air to his west. Although this weakened his circulation earlier today, it has started to improve again. The NHC have a note to say that an Air Force plane will go into the system to investigate tomorrow afternoon if necessary. Although the circulation has improved because wind shear has decreased and he is over the nourishingly warm waters of the western Caribbean, he does have some dry air ahead of him which will inhibit his development a bit. Also, as he is heading for central America he won’t have time to develop into much more than a Tropical Storm, if that! (the NHC recognize this too). He is moving westward at about 20mph.

This nicely leads me to a question from ‘Hurricaneagle’ (cool handle! J): “I was wondering why hurricanes coming off the Atlantic seem to move so much faster than hurricanes that form in the Gulf.“ Jolly good question. So good in fact that the answer comes in two parts, along with some lovely free Ikea assembly instructions. ;-) I don’t think I’ve gone over the basics of storm tracks during this season yet, but if you remember it (or if you remember it from last year), then this would be a nice time to go and make a cup of tea and get a slice of cake. For everyone else… oooh… <Science Alert>! (are you all tingling?) ;-)

<Science Alert Part One>

The basic answer is because the pressure fields that storms meet as they cross the Atlantic are generally much ‘smoother’ than those that are encountered in the Caribbean or the Gulf. These pressure fields are what determine a storm’s track and speed. So the first part of this <science alert> is the connection between the pressure fields and storm tracks.

In the northern hemisphere 'things' (technical jargon ;-) ) tend to move clockwise around high pressure systems, and counter-clockwise around low pressure systems. For example, a tropical storm has low pressure in the center so winds move counter-clockwise (or anticlockwise if you prefer) around a storm. Similarly, tropical storms also move around larger pressure systems.

There is generally a region of high pressure that likes to hang out over the Atlantic, sometimes called the Bermuda High or the Bermuda-Azores High. You can imagine it as a big clock face over the Atlantic. Here is an image which shows the tracks of all the  tropical storms in the Atlantic in August from 1851-2005 and this imaginary ‘clock’ (image credit: Moi J):

As storms cross the ocean, they move westward along the six o'clock region. As they turn WNW and NW they are moving from 6 to 9. Then they move N and NE, from 9 to 12. Of course in the real world this imaginary clock face isn't nice and round, nor does it stay in the same place (otherwise forecasting the track would be easy peasy :-)). It's more like a Dali clock, with wiggly bits (technical jargon ;-)) and jiggly bits (more technical jargon ;-)) that are always moving. This is why I will sometimes talk of 'pressure fields' when I talk about the track - I am referring to the large scale atmospheric pressure fields.

The second part of this <science alert> is the connection between pressure fields and speed but, in classic soap-opera cliff-hanging endings, (and somewhat ironically) my internet speed just sllowweed dowwwnnn. So I think I will cover the ‘speed’ part tomorrow. <end Science Alert part one!>  

Tune in again tomorrow for <Science Alert Part Deux, the exciting conclusion>.

Time for a nap in this corner of the planet.
Night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Sunday, August 12, 2012

Caribbean Blob, Atlantic Blobette, and the Closing Ceremony of the Olympics: August 12, Update A

I am watching the Olympics Closing Ceremony. What a concert! What a party!!

Just a quick update on the blob in the Caribbean. Here is a satellite image of the Atlantic:

The Caribbean Blob is at around 15N, 67W and the Atlantic Blobette is at around 23N, 40W. Spot the difference! Apparently they are both, essentially, identical in that they both have a 10% chance of developing in the next couple of days according to the NHC. (Nice tribute to John Lennon)

As I said yesterday, I agree with the 10% assessment regarding the Atlantic blobette,  but the Caribbean blob has some decent convection and stronger circulation in the lower half of the troposphere. He is in a region of relatively high wind shear which may scupper his plans, but he is heading to the very warm deep waters of the Caribbean where water temperatures are over 26 deg C in the upper 100-125m. I wouldn’t really say their chances of developing were equal. (woohoo… Annie Lennox!)

Here’s a brief weather report I received from Tom on St. Thomas earlier today: “has stayed windy here all night last night and increased in strength all day long....no rain from this system yet but hoping for tonight or tomorrow”

Not sure this one will bring much rain to that corner of the Caribbean.

(Spice Girls reunion! uh-oh… hmm… actually quite liked it. Oh dear, is this bad? Does it mean I lose some geek cred? Though I’m not sure how they can stand up in those heels, let alone dance around and climb on Taxis!)

I’ll be back tomorrow because this little Caribbean Blob still has sparks of life which that wind shear hasn’t quite eliminated yet. (Speaking of life, the remains of Ernesto are now Tropical Storm Hector in the eastern Pacific.)

You can log off now if you want to hear about storms… it’s all about the Olympics now. J

I must say it’s been a wonderful two weeks of Olympics. It was a nice change to have so many good news items like new sporting records, seeing athletes who are heroes from countries around the world etc. Just call me an optimist, but the world could do with more good news items! So congratulations to all you Olympian athletes who did a great job competing, medal or no medal. And well done Great Britain, nice job with the Olympics – from opening ceremony to closing. I’m so proud! J

What timing! Eric Idle just started singing “Always look on the bright side of life”. Precisely! (even Prince Harry is singing. Haha. Nice.)  Ooh… now Freddie Mercury (from a concert recording) and fellow Queen band-members Roger Taylor and Brian May, PhD (in Astrophysics from Imperial College, London).

Ok, officially the flag has been handed over to Rio. Time for me to log off (and watch the rest). Enjoy!!

Tally ho and toodle-pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Saturday, August 11, 2012

Atlantic Blob and Atlantic Blobette

Things are apparently calming right down in the tropical Atlantic, which makes a nice change from most weekends. Unfortunately Mother Nature has still had a busy day of disasters with two strong earthquakes in Iran today. Blah. Maybe she can take the day off tomorrow to watch the Olympic closing ceremonies. 

Tropical Depression 7 was officially demoted to a Blob again (known as a tropical wave if you really want to be technically correct) in the 11am NHC advisory. It has been 'shucking' it down (that still makes me chuckle) over the southern & middle Lesser Antilles all day and it looks like the rain will continue until tomorrow. The NHC currently give him a 10% chance of developing into a Tropical Storm in the next couple of days. He is moving westward at 20mph.  He is fairly weak, but personally I would have left him as a Tropical Depression for now. The convection is still good however, more importantly, it looks like the circulation has slowly improved since yesterday and is now good in the lower half of the troposphere. There is some strong wind shear ahead of him which will hopefully knock the steam out of him completely (puns always intended), but I'll continue to send updates until I think he is really calling it quits.  

The Atlantic Blobette also officially has a 10% chance of developing and is moving WNW at 20mph. She is around 18N, 31W. There is some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but there is no convection because she is firmly entrenched in the dry Saharan Air Layer. I agree with the NHC call on this Blobette and this will be my last update on her unless she gets some new heels (TS Helene will have to wait! :-)).

Not surprisingly, our old friend, Tropical Storm Ernesto, is running around the eastern Pacific singing "I'm not dead yet, I can do the Highland Fling" (Spamalot) and has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 8 in the Pacific.

It is Saturday evening. I must go. I have important things to do that may or may not or may involve drinking yummy lychee-champagne cocktails. Five fruit servings a day, right? ;-)

Adieu,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/ 
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Friday, August 10, 2012

Tropical Depression 7 and Atlantic Blobette: August 10, Update A

An easier day in the Atlantic today. Let’s see. Tropical Storm Ernesto was downgraded to a Tropical Depression overnight and the NHC issued their last advisory on him this morning. I think this was a bit premature, but only by a few hours. The straggly bits of this system doesn’t have much circulation, although there is still quite a bit of convective weather. Most of it is offshore at this point, so this is my last update on this system.

Tropical Depression 7
Officially this blob is at 13.8N, 52.8W, moving quickly W at 24mph. Winds are 35mph, central pressure 1009mb. They have slowly shifted the forecast track slightly southward, which is reasonable in my book. This blob still isn’t very well organized (he should make lists!) so I still can’t quite see his center. I’ll continue with the official one for now, although just like yesterday, it does appear to be a little south of this location. The biggest change from yesterday is that he is moving forward a little more quickly at 24mph. This means he will cross the Lesser Antilles chain tomorrow evening. He hasn’t really changed much in intensity so I agree with his TD designation. There isn’t really any circulation in the middle troposphere – it’s all in the lower parts of the atmosphere. His convection has improved slightly since yesterday but he is still being impacted by the dry Saharan Air Layer and increased wind shear, which you can see because the cloud pattern is elongated from southwest to northeast in this satellite image:

It looks like Trinidad and Tobago should have their umbrellas rushed to the front door though, because they have cloud cover already.

Atlantic Blobette
The Atlantic Blobette is now over the Cape Verde islands, and looks like she is centered around 17N, 25W. Although the circulation is good in the lower troposphere, the convection is pretty weak because she is well and truly stuck in some dry air. The NHC have downgraded her chances to 20%.

That’s about it really. J Before I leave though, here is something worth a peek at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08LBltePDZw It is an animated video of a flight through the Universe! It really gives a different perspective on the Universe, especially if you think about the size of a galaxy as you watch this!

It’s cheese-and-wine-o-clock! Oh joy. J
Ciao!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Thursday, August 09, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto, the remains of Florence, Tropical Depression 7 and the Atlantic blobette: August 9, Update A

Today was another exciting day of record breaking news! In the Olympics earlier I watched David Rudisha from Kenya break the world record for 800m, and now I just watched Usain Bolt from Jamaica win the gold for the 200m, after having won the 100m – the first time anyone has done this in consecutive Olympics. Well done Kenya and Jamaica! Over here, across the Atlantic, records are also being broken… my website clocked over 30,000 hits today! J (I’d like to take a moment to thank whoever the other person is that’s been clicking on it all these years … ;-)) I am celebrating in style with wine AND super yummy raspberry-chocolate cake. It’s the thing to do.

Before we get on with the show, I’d like to show you the er show (hmm… that sentence didn’t quite work out how I thought it would). Here is the NHC graphical depiction of interesting tidbits in the Atlantic:

Someone was having fun with the crayons today, weren’t they? We have Tropical Storm Ernesto over Mexico on the left. There are the remains of Tropical Storm Florence just north of the Caribbean (10% chance of reforming). Our newly formed Tropical Depression 7 (pre-Gordon). And the latest beauty that just came out of Africa on the right (currently 30% chance of forming and maybe the future Tropical Storm Helene).

Tropical Storm Ernesto
Ernesto is hanging onto his circulation with both paws as he crosses Mexico. His winds are officially at 40mph, which makes him a weak Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph), but the central pressure, at 999mb, is low for this wind speed. This is partly because his circulation in the entire troposphere has remained quite strong as he moved over land, but also because he is in a narrow section between the Gulf and the Pacific and is drawing moisture from both sides (sea surface temperatures are 30 deg C or higher in both ocean basins). Although the official forecast downgrades him to a Tropical Depression by the morning, he still looks stronger than that to me – both in terms of circulation and convection. You can see this for yourself in the satellite images of Ernesto.

The visible one, in shades of grey (not Shades of Gray!), shows the center of circulation at about 18.1N, 96.7W. The infrared image, in shades of colour (not shades of color!) shows the huge amount of convection in Ernesto. It’s been pouring rivers (the orange, red and gray parts), probably accompanied by lightning (red and gray parts) and stuff (er, a technical term ;-)).

He is moving westward at 14mph, which means he has some more land to cross before getting over water, but I think given his integrity there is a chance that he might be a storm all the way into the Pacific. Once upon a time when a storm crossed from one basin to another it would change names and take on the next name in the alphabet in the new basin. In these modern days and fast times if the storm maintains Tropical Storm status as it crosses Mexico (and doesn’t get downgraded to a tropical disturbance), then it will keep its name in the new basin as well. The NE Pacific is already at G in the alphabet with Tropical Storm Gilma (which was a hurricane earlier today), so unless Ernesto has a Strength of +2 he may transmute into Tropical Storm Hector! (gaming parlance ;-))

Remains of Tropical Storm Florence
The storm-formerly-known-as-Florence still has a bit of circulation and earlier today gained some nice shapely rain clouds as she went over a patch of ocean where the water was over 26 deg C in the upper ~100m. But wind shear is a bit too strong for her and she’s still got that dry and dusty Saharan Air (from yesterday) on her east side, so she is looking rather pathetic again. I won’t mention her again unless she has another resurgence.

Tropical Depression 7
This is our Atlantic Blob from yesterday and the one I thought would evolve into Gordon a couple of days ago, when he was just a blip on the radar (quite literally J). He is officially at 13.7N, 45.5W, moving W at 20mph. Winds are 35mph, central pressure 1009mb. He is not very organized at the moment, so it is a bit tricky for me to see his center. He could be moving west, or it could be somewhere else in the system, in which case he is moving SW. I’ll stick to the official center and direction for now.  The forecast track makes him a weak Tropical Storm tomorrow and takes him through the middle of the Lesser Antilles island chain in the middle of the weekend, and then up to Jamaica for Tuesday. At the moment I agree with the NHC and their intensity assessment – there is little wind shear, circulation is improving in the lower half of the troposphere, sea surface temperatures are warm which allows for some improvement. But he will still be impacted by dry air from the edge of the SAL (see figure yesterday) and there’s a chance that wind shear will increase a little tomorrow, which will keep his intensification slow. I think his track may be south of the official one (at least over the next day or two), but my data is not very good at the moment and I hope I’ll have more on this tomorrow.

Atlantic Blobette
This is the new blobette I was referring to yesterday. It emerged off Africa today and has good circulation in the very lowest region of the troposphere (I do not have any data for the rest of the troposphere this far east) as well as good convection. It has to cross the Atlantic and the SAL, but she may be the future Tropical Storm Helene. I’ll be keeping an eye on this one, rest assured!   

Thus ends today’s epic entry. One more important news item before I go back to watching the Olympics: BBC is making a TV movie of the origins of Dr. Who! About time. (puns always intended J).

(Goodness me… some of these long-jumpers can jump over 3.5 times my height!! And that’s when I’m wearing heels. Hmm… I suppose I can jump over 3.5 times my cat’s height. And that’s when I’m wearing heels… ;-))
Toodles!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Ernesto and the Atlantic Blob: August 9, Update A

Tropical Storm Ernesto behaved quite as expected throughout the day today. After making landfall last night, he lost some intensity and his convection decreased as he crossed the Yucatan Peninsula during the day. However, because he made landfall with strong circulation throughout the entire troposphere he didn’t lose much structurally as he crossed the peninsula. His center has just emerged over the Bay of Campeche, at about 19.1N, 92.0W (as you can see in the satellite image below – if you squint anyway ;-)), where the sea surface temperatures are around 30 deg C.

He is slowly picking up convective activity again, and his winds are now at 65mph (central pressure 994mb), making him a strong Tropical Storm. He is moving W at 7mph. The forecast keeps him in the Bay and takes him back into Mexico later tomorrow. I think he might stay over the water a little longer, and make landfall slightly to the north of the current center of cone, but nothing too wildly different from the forecast. There is a small chance he  will cross Mexico and move out into the Pacific, but he does have to cross a mountain range (I believe), and usually storms just dwindle out as tropical depressions.

Now for the Atlantic Blob.  This baby is slowly getting stronger and now has a 70% chance of developing into Tropical Storm Gordon in the next 48 hours. It looks like it is somewhere around 14.1N, 38.9W, moving W at 15mph. Convection has increased a bit, but there hasn’t been much change in the circulation since yesterday. There is very little wind shear, and sea surface temperatures are 27 deg C, so the biggest factor that is inhibiting development at the moment is the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) – lots of dry and dusty air around. This image shows the storm and the SAL (the red and yellow bits):

You can see that if it can survive to around 53W, it should be clear of this layer and can get its act together. This one will keep heading to the Caribbean – currently I think it looks like it is heading to the southern end of the Windward Islands again, but I estimate that would be around Sunday. I will have a better idea of things tomorrow (and there may be another blobette out there by then too!).  

Time for a nice nap now! J

Night,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tuesday, August 07, 2012

Hurricane Ernesto and the Atlantic Blob: August 7, Update A

Hurricane Ernesto, a mid-strength cat 1 (range: 74-95mph) storm with winds of 85 mph, is making landfall at the very southern end of the Yucatan region of Mexico as I write this. Here is a satellite image of his convection:

The red area indicates very strong thunderstorm and tornadic activity, the gray is very very very strong thunderstorms with a lot of tornados. <Rant alert> (too many exclamation point alert) They finally got around to upgrading him seven (7!!) hours ago to a hurricane in the 2pm advisory, after noting just three (3!!) hours earlier that the pressure had dropped to 989mb! Apparently the planes didn’t find winds strong enough at that point in time to warrant calling him a hurricane so they speculated (!!!) that maybe the wind field had increased in size which would account for weaker winds and a lower central pressure!! (From the NHC: THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST SOME EXPANSION OF THE INNER WIND FIELD...WHICH MAY PARTIALLY EXPLAIN THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING.) Something is wrong if we can’t look at all the data available (plane, satellite etc), analyze it in context, and make a judgment call!! This was a hurricane yesterday and it has been a hurricane all day today. If a storm this size was off the coast of Miami, would it be ok to wait until 7 hours before landfall to upgrade him to a hurricane because we were waiting for one piece of data? I am not a happy bunny about this!! <end rant alert>(end too many exclamation point alert too)

Ok so Ernesto, as you can see, is at 18.9N, 87.5W, heading W at 18mph onto the Yucatan peninsula. Central pressure is now 980mb, winds are 85mph. The forecast track takes him across the peninsula and back out into the Gulf by tomorrow afternoon. Sea surface temperatures are over 30 deg C, but the subsurface water temperature is only warmer than 26 deg C in the upper 50m of the water column… mostly because the bathymetry of the sea floor there is quite shallow so it can’t be much deeper anyway. The circulation is really quite good over the entire troposphere.

Meanwhile over in the eastern Atlantic is a new blob. May I introduce you to the most-likely future Tropical Storm Gordon?

(satellite image of the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf).
This blob is centered around 12.2N, 33.5W, heading W at 10-15mph. It doesn’t have much convection yet, but the circulation is picking up in the lowest half of the troposphere. Looks like he will continue generally westward for the next couple of days, but may track north of Ernesto. So the Caribbean islands, Bahamas, Bermuda, and east coast of the US should keep an eye on this little rascal.

I shall conclude with a graphical depiction of what is really happening on Mars...

Until the morrow!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Monday, August 06, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto and Tropical Depression Florence: August 6, Update A

Oh the irony: The first real flying saucer is from Earth and it landed on Mars! ;-) (thanks NASA/JPL). Yay! Curiosity successfully lands on Mars! 2012 is certainly a turning out to be a year to remember. Gosh. What an amazing feat of engineering to be able to travel 352 million miles and land safely on another planet and send back fantastic photos. Bravo! I’m sure that any day now I will be able to tell you that, from hundreds of miles away, the NHC perfectly forecast a tropical storm. ;-)

Tropical Depression Florence

I’ll start with the easy one. Florence was too busy watching the Olympics and got distracted from her mission of being a Tropical Storm. She was downgraded late last night and is now at about 16.8N, 42W, heading westward at maybe 15mph. Winds are less than 35mph, there is very little circulation, and almost no convection. This is my last update on Florence. The next storm in the Atlantic will be Gordon, maybe in 5 or 6 days.

Tropical Storm Ernesto

Ok, so in my not-very-humble opinion Ernesto has been a weak cat 1 hurricane almost all day and the NHC still have him as a Tropical Storm! (mumble grumble) They did upgrade his winds to 65mph this morning, which was very kind of them, making him a strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph), with a note to say he would ‘probably be a hurricane by this evening’. The circulation has been strong in the entire troposphere for over 12 hours! This is a definite signal of a storm at hurricane strength. There is a lot of convection, he is passing over warm sea surface temperatures (28 deg C) with water warmer than 26 deg C in the upper 150-175m of the ocean, there is no wind shear, and the upper atmosphere is favourable. They are sending in a plane to check what’s what.

He is currently centered at  about 16.5N, 82.1W, heading WNW at 12mph. The central pressure is estimated to be 995mb (quite low pressure - another clue that he is stronger than a Tropical Storm actually). He is passing close to the northern coast of Honduras, heading for landfall in the Belize/Yucatan part of the world tomorrow night. This I agree with. Waves in this region of the Caribbean are around 12-15ft.

That’s it for storms for now. Back to Mars. Here are the first few photos from Curiosity – well worth a gander!

1.      Curiosity Photo 0: NASA’s MRO Mars orbiter imaged Curiosity during its decent to the Martian surface:

2.       Curiosity Photo 1: First shot of Martian surface:

3.      Curiosity Photo 2: Martian surface – flat landscape:

4.      Curiosity Photo 3: Martian surface – Mount Sharp:

5.      Curiosity Photo 4: Martian surface – small dune:

More tomorrow on (hurricane) Ernesto and maybe Curiosity.

Ciao!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Sunday, August 05, 2012

Tropical Storms Ernesto and Florence: August 5, Update A

Dear NBC Olympic commentator for the equestrian sports, when it is raining the British say “it’s chucking it down” not “it’s shucking it down”. It is rain, not corn. Thank goodness I am now watching the civilized sport of tennis (my favourite) with proper commentary by John McEnroe. Wimbledon final déjà vu… Murray versus Federer at the All England Club! Murray leads by 2 games in the 1st set. Come on Murray!!

TS Ernesto
Ernesto is officially at 15N, 76W, moving W at 22mph. Winds are 50mph, central pressure 1006mb.

The good news is that I was wrong! J Ernesto has weakened since yesterday, not intensified as I thought he would (although I still maintain he was a borderline cat 1 storm during a portion of the day). Having looked at all the data, here’s why I think this happened. (Murray wins first set! J). From the oceanic perspective, sea surface temperatures are still warm (27-28 deg C), but he did pass over a small region where the sub-surface waters only had water warmer than 26 deg C in the upper 50m which would have slowed down his intensification a bit. He has now passed this and is back in an area where the warm 26 deg C waters are in the upper 150-175m. From the atmospheric perspective, he still has dry air in front him which would inhibit his development. Wind shear has been and continues to be quite low, so this wouldn’t have hindered him. He is interacting a little with land which may have inhibited him a bit, however I think the biggest factor is that the circulation that was developing in the upper troposphere was suppressed. (Woohoo… Andy Murray won the second set!!)

<science alert> A storm is a low pressure system at the bottom of the atmosphere (close to the ground). Air flows from high to low pressure, so it flows into the center. We call this low level air flow inflow or convergence (converging to the middle). But if it flows in from all sides, then where can it go? It can only go one way, and that is up. At the top of a tropical storm it has room to flow outwards… so, interestingly, a tropical storm with a good structure actually has high pressure at the top because the air is flowing out horizontally from that point. We call this outflow or divergence. A good storm has low pressure at the bottom and high pressure at the top. But to set this up there has to be ‘room’ around the top of a storm for the air to flow out, which depends on the conditions of the surrounding atmosphere at the top. With Ernesto, it looks like the conditions in the upper troposphere were not good enough to continue setting up the outflow circulation and that suppressed the entire storm from intensifying. You can look at the lower level convergence here:  http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=conv&zoom=&time= and the upper level divergence here:  http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dvg&zoom=&time=. For a good storm structure, both would show concentric circles. The more (closer and circular) the circles, the better the structure. <end science alert>

<taking a break for English Breakfast in keeping with the flavor of the morning> (YES! Murray just broke Federer’s serve in the 3rd set, 3 games to 2!). Gold Medal Point … and… he WON! Hurray! Hurray! Is it too early for Champagne? ;-) J J (I knew this was a momentous day!). J

The really good news is that because the atmosphere is not playing along, the ocean will not make Ernesto as strong as he could have been so he will remain a Tropical Storm (at the most a cat 1) all the way to landfall.

Because Ernesto’s structure is so wishy-washy, it is difficult to figure out exactly where his center is at the moment. The NHC did have it too far north yesterday at 15.4N. Since then they have moved it south, and it is now at 15N (actually 15.1N since I started writing). I was also correct in the track which they have moved a little farther south again. It is now going to make landfall in Belize on Tues night/Weds morning.

TS Florence
Meanwhile, little Florence out there in the Atlantic is officially at 16.5N, 35.6W moving W at 14mph. Her winds are currently estimated to be 60mph, central pressure 1001mb. She isn’t doing very well at the moment. The circulation and convection have deteriorated, as  you can see in this satellite image:

I don’t think the winds are as strong as 60mph, her center is somewhere around 16.8N, 36W, and she is moving more in a WNW direction. I’d estimate winds to be closer to 40-50mph – so a very weak storm. Although there is low wind shear, she is actually passing over a region of colder sea surface temperatures of less than 26 deg C (colder than what we need to sustain a tropical storm). Depending on her track, if she continues westward she may head back to warmer waters soon and put on a new coat then.  However, if she continues WNW/NW, she may stay over cooler waters and just fizzle out in the Atlantic.

That’s it for now. I have a very busy day ahead… celebrating Andrew Murray’s win and then watching him in the mixed doubles later! J

Toodle pip and tally ho!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Saturday, August 04, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto and Tropical Storm Florence: August 4, Update A

Time for a quick update.

TS Ernesto

Ernesto is heading WNW at a brisk 22mph. Officially he is currently centered at 15.4N, 72W and the winds are officially 60mph (based on data brought back from a hurricane hunter plane), central pressure is 1007mb. The current forecast from the NHC has him becoming a hurricane late on Monday evening, with landfall in the Yucatan on Wednesday morning. I agree with the general landfall region, but I am not sure I agree with some of the other parts. For a start, I think his center is south of the official location. From the satellite imagery I think it looks like it is at 14.9N, 71.6W. Also, I think his winds were 60-70mph earlier in the day, but I think he has changed his clothes and is actually already a weak cat 1 hurricane (cat 1 range: 74-95mph) because there is some circulation now in the upper levels of the troposphere which is a sign of a weak cat 1. Most indicators are that he will intensify. Wind shear is low and sea surface temperatures are warmer than 28 deg C with the upper 100-125m of the ocean warmer than 26 deg C. As he gets closer to central America, waters warmer than 26 deg C can be found even deeper – down to depths of 150-175m. This will really allow him to intensify on Monday and Tuesday. There is a bit of dry air ahead of him and he is still interacting with the South America landmass, so the intensification will be gradual.    

TS Florence

Florence is currently officially at 16.1N, 33W, moving WNW at 15mph. Her winds have been increased to 60mph, which makes her a mid-strength Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph).  Her central pressure is estimated to be 1000mb. The forecast track keeps her in the Atlantic. I agree with the intensity estimate. It looks like her center is a little north of the official location. I’d put her at 16.5N, 33W, moving in a northwest direction at the moment. I do not have good data that far out in the Atlantic at the moment, so I cannot really say much about her track today and will go with the official forecast for now.

Time for a nice nap. More tomorrow!

Toodles,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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TS Ernesto, TS Florence and the small Atlantic Blob: August 4, Update A

I thought I’d take the day off yesterday as nothing much was happening out there so I figured you wouldn’t miss me…. J Hurray, it’s the weekend and that means more than one update a day. How lucky for you! ;-)

TS Ernesto
Honestly Ernesto, you really have to change out of that teeny-weeny yellow polka dot bikini if you want to be a taken seriously as a proper hurricane! ;-)

Ernesto crossed into the Caribbean, close to St. Lucia, yesterday morning as a weak Tropical Storm with winds of 45mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and his winds at the moment are still officially only around 50mph, central pressure 1008mb. His circulation is good in the lower half of the troposphere, but he is interacting with the South America landmass which is they only reason I can see to explain why he isn’t a hurricane yet (other than his attire of course ;-)). There is very little wind shear, not much dry air around him now, and sea surface temperatures are 28 deg C, with the upper 75-100m of the ocean warmer than 26 deg C. All of these are conducive to strengthening. Actually, I think he is stronger than the official 50mph wind speed suggests. You can see the strong convection in this satellite image (large area of red, with some gray):

I think he’s a strong Tropical Storm, with winds closer to the 60-70mph range.    

As we expected, he is taking a southern path and the NHC have been slowly, but consistently, revising their center of cone forecast track southwards. Currently they are showing landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula on Weds morning. The current center looks like it is still a bit too far north (to me), but the Yucatan landfall is more reasonable than the earlier tracks they had. He is officially at 14.4N, 68.7W heading WNW at 18mph. I think his center may be slightly south of this, closer to 14.1N.   

TS Florence
Beautiful little Florence left the coast of Africa a couple of days ago, and she looked good as she left. By the time she got to the Cape Verde Islands region she had good circulation in the lower half of the atmosphere and good convection on the southern side of the system. The NHC upgraded her to Tropical Depression 6 yesterday and then to Tropical Storm Florence this morning. I agree with this upgrade. J (see, it *is* possible to agree ;-) ).  Her convection is limited on the northern side because there is a lot of dry and dusty Saharan air to the north which is getting in the way of her blossoming. Sea surface water temperatures, at 27 deg C, are certainly warm enough to sustain her, with the upper 50m of water warmer than 26 deg C.


You can see she is now at 15N, 30W from this satellite image (heading WNW at 16mph):

She is still fairly weak, with official winds estimated to be 45mph, central pressure estimated to be 1002mb. I will figure out her track for the next update.  

Small Atlantic Blob
There is a blob that’s been doing a tour of the beaches and is moving towards Florida from the Bahamas region. This really is a blob, in the blobbiest sense of the word (i.e. a mass of clouds). There is a little circulation, but it is in the very lowest part of the troposphere (not even covering the lower half). People can expect a few buckets of rain though because it is near the Florida Current/Gulf Stream, which is rather toasty warm and has a lot of warm water in the upper 100-125m of the ocean. Just have your umbrellas polished and ready to use if you need.

More on all of the above later. Must go and do weekend things now, like umm… having another cup of tea. J

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Thursday, August 02, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto: August 2, Update A

Woohoo… Ernesto has arrived! He was named in the 5pm (EST) NHC advisory, after they received information from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane. There are two agencies that fly these planes by the way. One is the Air Force and the other is NOAA. The Air Force does routine flights to gather data about the storm for forecasting, and NOAA usually flies for research purposes. NOAA also flies if more data is needed for forecasting too of course!

The flight this afternoon found the center to be south of the NHC estimate. I am not surprised. At the 5pm advisory the official center was at 12.8N, 56.6N, heading W at 22mph. In the most recent advisory, the center was at 13.3N, 57.4W, still heading W at 22mph. I believe the 5pm advisory coordinates, but I am not convinced about the location in the 8pm advisory. I think it is south of 13.3N. First, if the track is westward then how did it move that far north (in three hours)? And second, from the satellite images the center-of-nothing-in-particular is at those coordinates!

The good news is that I finally have proper pressure field data today! Yay! This makes me happy (it doesn’t take much, does it? ;-)). I think the official track will continue to move southward (they already shifted it slightly south when they relocated the center late this afternoon). As I said a couple of days ago, I think Ernesto will cross the southern windward islands. He’ll stay in the southern Caribbean, south of the current center of cone track and at the moment it looks to me like landfall will be in central America, but that part is almost a week away so things may change.

Ernesto has winds of 50mph, with a central pressure of 1005mb. These are the values the plane found, and it makes him a weakish Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Although he weakened yesterday and overnight, this morning there was an itsy-bitsy, teeny-weeny  tiny amount of improvement in the convection and the circulation. He’s been at that level for many hours now, so I think the aircraft findings are groovy. ;-) (no, no yellow polka-dot bikinis… Ernesto!!). The southernmost windward islands (Trinidad, Tobago, Grenada, Barbados) are already experiencing a drop of rain or two from this system.

I think that is it from the Atlantic for now. Meanwhile in the far western Pacific, Typhoon Saola was downgraded to a Tropical Storm, with winds of 50mph, after crossing northern Taiwan and dumping oodles of rain. It is due to make landfall in China any minute now. To the north, Typhoon Damrey made landfall in China earlier today as a weak cat 1, with winds of 75mph. And Tropical Depression 12 formed today and is forecast to become a cat 1 Typhoon by Sunday as it crosses the southern Japanese islands – following a track similar to Damrey’s.

Hey… I missed wine’o’clock! How did that happen? Sigh. Guess I’ll move straight on to gin’o’clock (I’m following in the footsteps of royalty here ;-)).  

Until tomorrow,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Wednesday, August 01, 2012

Tropical Depression 5: August 1, Update A

I am watching a classic oceanographic movie… ‘Jaws’ with a group of friends at the moment (and drinking wine of course). It’s been many years since I saw this film. I’m not sure how many oceanographers were inspired by this movie, but it is a good one!

Our Atlantic blob from yesterday was upgraded to a Tropical Depression at the 5pm (EST) NHC advisory today. It is officially at 12.6N, 50.6W. It’s a messy looking system so I’ll go with this official center for now, although I think it may be a little to the south and east of this location. Central pressure is estimated to be 1008mb, with winds of 35mph. The current forecast track has the system continuing WNW, going over the Windward Islands on Friday afternoon as a Tropical Storm (39-73 mph winds) and reaching Jamaica by Monday afternoon as a Hurricane. I still don’t have very good (high resolution) pressure data which would help in figuring out the track, but this general direction seems reasonable at the moment. I think part of the reason I don’t have good information is because the pressure fields are not very strong at the moment. This suggests that the storm may move a little slower than expected.  

(movie update: man hunting shark now)

Although the Tropical Depression looked stronger during the day it has weakened this evening, in both the convection and the circulation. I agree with the NHC that this is currently a Tropical Depression (which means it has circulation but the winds are less than 39mph). Sea surface water temperatures are a toasty 28-29 deg C, the upper 50m of the ocean is warmer than 26 deg C, and wind shear is pretty weak. These would all help the system to get stronger. However, there is some lovely dry, dusty air to the north and east that is impacting the system. This is called the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and usually inhibits storm development with dry dusty air blowing off northern Africa (the Sahara Desert in case the name didn’t give that away ;-)). The weakening of the system today means that the storm will not be quick to develop, assuming it survives this part of the journey.      

(movie update: shark winning… boat sinking. umm… I better not say anymore in case you haven’t seen this!).

Meanwhile, interesting things are happening in the far western Pacific! Today both Typhoon Saola (as a strong cat 2 with winds of 105mph) and Typhoon Damrey (as a weak cat 1 with winds of 75mph) went over the southern islands of Japan.  Typhoon Saola, south of Damrey, will pass over northern Taiwan as a cat 1 tonight/tomorrow, and currently has winds of 85mph. They are both heading to China, due to make landfall on Thursday night and Friday morning. Here is a wonderful NASA satellite image of both of these storms:

I’ll be back tomorrow with more! (da-dum, da-dum, da-dum…) ;-)
Ciao,
J.

p.s. movie trivia: ‘Jaws’ was nominated for best picture in 1975, but lost to ‘One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest’. The novel was based on a real shark attack off the coast of New Jersey in 1916. Steven Spielberg told John Williams that the ‘da-dum da-dum’ music wasn’t going to work for the film. John Williams had to convince him that it would be ok. Now it is amongst the most recognized movie music pieces in the world.    

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Atlantic and Caribbean blobs: July 31, Update A

We almost made it through July without a storm entry. What a lovely, peaceful month... I even had time to clean the house and paint my nails! ;-)

First, a big thank you to everyone who attended the sold-out event at the Dali Museum in St. Pete last week! I had a jolly good time, and from what I heard from the stage, it sounded like you all had a bit of a chuckle too. I’ll let you know if it gets posted somewhere.

Now, there are a couple of blobs in the Atlantic that I’ve been watching for a few days. The first is a Caribbean Blob, moving westward. It doesn’t have much circulation, but quite a bit of convection (rain and rain, with a dash of rain) which went over the British and US Virgin Islands yesterday(ish), Puerto Rico today(ish), and is currently over Hispaniola. The weak circulation doesn’t seem to have changed much over the past few days and it is interacting with land, so I don’t think this will amount to much anytime soon.

The second is an Atlantic Blob, also moving westward. The circulation has gradually improved over the entire lower half of the troposphere and there is a fair bit’o’convection. I estimate that it is centered around 42W, 10N. For the past few days this blob has chugged along the 10N latitude. The pressure fields I am looking at are not very good at the moment, but I think it will continue more-or-less westward, taking it to the southern end of the windward islands. Hopefully tomorrow my crystal ball (data) will be a bit clearer.

<Jargon/Forecasting Alert> I was asked what 91L, 92L etc. meant when the NHC highlight an area of interest. For example, this Atlantic blob is called 99L. It’s actually a top secret code! ;-) Any tropical system they are interested in is given a number designation, ‘9’.  This alerts the forecast computer modelers and others that they should pay attention to this blob. The second digit is the number of the system, so the first one in the season is ‘0’, the second is ‘1’ etc. When they get to ‘9’, they start again. That explains the 90, 91… 99. The letter represents the ocean basin. The Atlantic is ‘AL’ (shortened to ‘L’), the Eastern Pacific is ‘EP’, the Central Pacific is ‘CP’, and the Western Pacific is ‘WP’. So 99L is the 9th area of interest in the Atlantic. The next one they will call ‘90L’ and around we go on the hamster wheel again. Hmm… I wonder if James Bond could have cracked that code? ;-) If it becomes a Tropical Depression then this number is dropped. Of course my system of keeping tabs on masses of interesting tropical clouds is a little er more entertaining… blobs and blobettes. J <End jargon/forecasting alert>

More tomorrow I expect.

Tally ho!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Wednesday, July 18, 2012

An Interview with Moi

Don’t Panic! (Douglas Adams). There’s nothing much going on weather-wise in the Atlantic tropics (she says as the thunder booms overhead in not-so-sunny-St. Pete). Fairly weak Tropical Storm Khanun (55mph) is about to visit a friend of mine in South Korea. In the eastern Pacific, the former Hurricane Fabio is now barely a Tropical Depression (35mph), but there is another Pacific blobette that’s trying to get her act together.

But enough of that weather stuff. I’m here to tell you that I have been found out! All these years of wonderful (?) wit(!) and wisdom(!) (with a cup of ranting and a slice of forecasting) is bringing me fame. Oh dear. So much for writing incognito… I mean honestly, I thought a blog called ‘Jyotika’s Tropical Storms Blog’ would be a good cover. I guess that plan didn’t work out very well. I have been invited to give an interview about ME! In public! On a stage! (eeek!) So much for secret identities! (I might need to use a few more !! between now and then!)!

This event is free so anyone in the St. Petersburg area can come and have a laugh (I can guarantee you at least one… probably as I trip up walking to the seat).  I never could get the hang of Thursdays (Douglas Adams), so of course it will be next Thursday evening (July 26th), at the Dali museum in downtown St. Petersburg. Here is the flyer:
If you want to attend, please call the number on the flyer to rsvp (if you haven’t already). I understand that they let the people who call enter first and then anyone else who turns up (there’s the main theater and an overflow room).

That’s it from me for now.
Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: I’ve never done anything like this before! Luckily the Dali Museum rooms have high ceilings so there should be enough space for everyone and my big head. ;-)
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Sunday, July 08, 2012

Higgs boson Special

For anyone who is into physics, this has been such a big week that I *have* to write a special! On Wednesday, July 4, physicists at CERN announced that they had found a new fundamental particle, the heaviest of its kind. But what the Higgs boson is all the fuss about? A couple of you have asked why this announcement is so important. Here’s my attempt at pulling this all together.

Ah, but before I begin I need to prattle on about something almost equally momentous … Wimbledon! I never thought I’d say this, but I’m voluntarily watching ESPN for the Wimbledon Gentlemen’s Final: Andrew Murray (UK) versus that other chap (I’m not biased). Britons love their sports as much as any nation. I think the top 7 would be tennis (my favourite), football (known as soccer to confused people who think that holding the ball with their hands is football), cricket, horse racing, golf, snooker, darts, and, of course, tiddlywinks. The last time a British man won a singles title at Wimbledon was 1936 (Fred Perry). The last time a British man even played in the singles final was 1938 (Henry Austin). This was before the second World War!! Yesterday was a great day too… the Men’s Doubles Finals had a British person, Jonathon Marray, as part of the winning team (his partner was from Denmark, Frederik Nielsen). The first time since 1936!  Regardless of the outcome friends, this is history.

<Major Science Alert>

Back to science.

First, you need to know a bit about atoms. Everything is made of atoms. Atoms consist of a nice gooey center, called a nucleus, and a lovely crunchy coating of particles that zip around the center called electrons. The nucleus consists of two particles: the proton and the neutron. In turn, protons and neutrons are made of even smaller subatomic particles called quarks. Quarks are one of the three absolute basic particles we know about. The other two are called leptons and bosons. Leptons are the particles that give electrons their mass. Everything we see has a mass, thanks to your friendly little quarks and leptons. Bosons are slightly different. They are not mass, but are associated with force. Quarks, leptons and bosons work together, but interact differently which is why some things are heavier than others (eating too much cake and ice cream just means one accumulates more quarks, leptons and bosons of a particular configuration ;-)).

Now you know about atoms, the next thing you need to know about is force. There are four basic interactions (fundamental forces) that explain *everything* we know about, from atoms to people to tropical storms to galaxies:

1.There is gravity which is pretty well known. This is why a tennis ball falls to the ground if you throw it up into the air.

2. There is the electromagnetic force. An electric field can be created when charged particles (electrons) are in a moving magnetic field. The earth is one big magnet, so we live in a magnetic field. The atoms that make us have electrons. As Andy Murray runs around Center Court, he is creating a weak electric field. Conversely, an electric current, which is a flow of charged particles, creates a magnetic field. This is known as electromagnetic induction, and is used to create electrical generators, transformers etc. that are used in all aspects of our electronic lives, such as the TV and satellites that allow me to watch Wimbledon or the computer that allows me to tell you that I’m watching Wimbledon. Both electric and magnetic fields are two sides of the electromagnetism coin. (Taking a break to watch Murray take the first set, and YES! that’s in the bag. J).

3. There is the weak interaction (weak nuclear force). This is responsible for radioactive decay, fusion and all that jazz. It is what makes stars generate energy through a process called nuclear (hydrogen) fusion. Our Sun is a star which is bestowing it’s golden rays on Center Court in London right now.  

4. There is the strong interaction (strong nuclear force). This is actually a much stronger force than the others by a long shot! It is what creates the nucleus of an atom by binding together the protons and neutrons. You need a humongously massively huge amount of energy if you want to separate the protons and neutrons in an atom.

There are no other forces, just these four. All the others that you have heard about are some rendition of these four. The other interesting tidbit is that quarks are the only elementary particles that are directly influenced by ALL four of these fundamental forces. (Drat, Federer just won the second set).  

The theory that has managed to explain almost everything we observe about these forces and particles is called the Standard Model. There are a few things that it doesn’t yet explain, like dark matter. (Rain delay at Wimbledon! Watching this is making me hungry… time for nutella on toast. What do you mean it’s lunchtime? ;-))

One of the things that physicists are looking for is how to connect the Standard Model with all the bits that cannot yet be explained. They are looking for a common theory, the one ring to find them all and in the dark matter bind them. ;-) (Roof is up at Center Court, they are back). The Standard Model has particles that have been theorized that would sew up some of these loose ends but there isn’t yet any evidence for these particles, and that’s where the experiments at CERN and other such places around the world come into play.

(On edge of seat whilst watching the long game that Murray lost. Bother. Federer just won a second set).

They think the boson that they announced on July 4 was one of the theoretically predicted bosons – the Higgs boson. This particular boson would explain why different quarks have different masses, and can therefore help in understanding dark matter (amongst other things).

But how does it work?  Imagine a field that surrounds everything (The Force from Star Wars if you like), made up of Higgs bosons (we can’t see it). A quark can get a different mass depending on its properties as it moves through the Higgs field. (Adapted from the BBC: ) There is a room of tennis players (these are bosons in the Higgs field), hanging out having a cup of tea and some cucumber sandwiches (Aww shucks… Murray lost). Then a quark called Federer walks into the room and is swamped by these bosons who want to congratulate him and get his autograph. It will take him some time to get through the room to the other side – he has acquired a large mass because of the special property he has (e.g. a Wimbledon trophy). A couple of minutes later the quark called Murray walks into the room. He won’t attract quite as big a crowd (unless he’s in the UK of course), so he’ll be able to cross the room more quickly, and has a smaller mass. These quarks have a different mass that they have acquired in their interactions with bosons as they move through the Higgs field.  

So finding evidence of the Higgs boson is important because it is the one that explains why things have mass i.e. why things exist! Scientists haven’t outright said that this is the Higgs boson because they need to check some of its other properties to make sure it fits the theory, but it is definitely a new boson and at least one aspect of it matches the predicted properties of the Higgs boson (predicted in the 1960s). We should know sometime next year if this is the one!

<End Major Science Alert>

Questions anyone? Sigh. Well, now Wimbledon is over I suppose I had better start the day… ;-) (next year Murray, next year!) (Congratulations Federer, well played).

Cheers,
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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Disclaimer: It’s been a while since I studied particle and quantum physics. J
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