Tropical Depression Barry: June 20, Update A

I have news! Yesterday my blog webpage views crossed the 50,000 mark! I want to thank you all for your wonderful intelligence, good taste, excellent sense of humour, and for kindly telling your family/friends about my belles-lettres. I also want to reassure you that this will not go to my head. You will not notice any difference in my writing whatsoever. How could it? After all, I already know that I’m an extraordinarily witty, charming, good-looking genius... ;-) (heehee).

So, as expected, Tropical Storm Barry remained weak (max winds went up to 45mph) and made landfall this morning in Mexico. He is now well and truly over land at 19.6N, 97.7W, heading westward at 7mph as a Tropical Depression. Winds are officially 35mph, central pressure 1006mb but I think he’s a bit weaker than that. He is mostly a rain event and has dumped at least a couple of buckets over Mexico today (and continues to do so).  His circulation is pretty weak and I expect it’ll be bye-bye Barry tomorrow. This is my last entry on this well-behaved little storm.

I have heard a few people express consternation about these pesky storms that develop so close to the coast. Well, it is not really a surprise to have them pop up off your local beach at this time of year (June), but the good news is that they are dinky little things that generally bring much needed rain and not too much wind. Here is a figure that I made a few years ago that shows the track of all storms from 1851 to 2005 (graph credit: ME). (I last showed this over a year ago). 

You can see that in the early and latter parts of the season we have storms that develop in the western Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean region. But because they are so close to land and early in the season things are still warming up, they don’t usually have time to develop. During the peak months it’s another story.  Storms develop in the eastern Atlantic and have lots of space and time (but no TARDIS, thankfully!) to get nice and strong before getting to land. This figure also shows why we have a ‘hurricane season’. 97% of all storms form between June 1 and Nov 30, with 78% forming during the peak months of Aug-Sept-Oct (stats from Landsea’s 1993 paper). But you can see that every so often we do get storms that develop outside of the season (including January!). Not common, but not impossible!

That’s it for now. I’ll be back when there’s another blob out there, assuming my duct tape/feather duster internet connection holds up. (Second visit from not-named cable company scheduled for tomorrow – what fun things I plan for Friday evenings, hey? ;-)).

Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Barry: June 19, Update A

I did not fall asleep on the job thank you very much! ;-)

I’ve been following this little blob since its primary school days in the Caribbean (it wasn’t much to write about back then). I  had intended to send a note out yesterday, but <ahem> someone <ahem> broke the Internet. Luckily for all of you, I managed to fix it with a roll of duct tape and a feather duster. The progress of humanity will live to fight another day. Or something.

Tropical Storm Barry crossed the Yucatan peninsula as a blob yesterday and is in the Bay of Campeche. It didn’t have too much in the way of circulation as it crossed, but what it did have remained intact in the lowest levels of the troposphere (<Jargon Alert!> see http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2013/06/gulf-of-mexico-blobette-june-4-update-a.html for clarification). It also lost a lot of convection as it crossed land, but now it is over the lovely warm waters of the Gulf, the convective activity (technical term for rain, thunder and ‘stuff like that’ (technical term for ‘stuff like that’ ;-))) has increased. You can see the gradual increase in convection over the last 2.5 hours in these infrared satellite images.

Sea surface temperatures are 29-30 deg C (a storm needs temperatures of 26.5 deg C or higher to be sustained) and wind shear is quite weak. They sent a plane into the system to investigate but I wasn’t at all surprised that they named this one as Tropical Storm Barry earlier this afternoon. I agree!! J

He is somewhere around 21N, 95W, heading WNW towards Mexico. He is very weak – barely a Tropical Storm – with winds of 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph), central pressure 1005mb and should make landfall tomorrow morning.

And really, that’s about all for now. Time for a lovely cuppa tea.

Ciao!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Post-Tropical Storm Andrea: June 8, Update A

Looks like classic movie-night on TV tonight. Close Encounters of the Third Kind or The Exorcist… hmm… which one to watch?

Hurray! This is the last entry on ‘Post-Tropical’ Storm Andrea. Officially her last known sighting was at 43.6N, 68.8W, heading NE at 39mph. The pressure was 1000mb, and no-one bothered to change the winds so the last NHC advisory had 45mph winds. I’ve written enough about her this week so I’ll stop now and let you enjoy your weekend too. J

Happy World Oceans Day everyone! No matter the weather, it is always out there… (photos taken by moi J).

Until next time,
Ciao!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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'Post-Tropical' Storm Andrea: June 7, Update A

Yay, it’s Friday! End of the week and that means…

(thanks to Janice F. from Tampa for sending that little cheery graphic yesterday). J

Tropical Storm Andrea was officially moved to ‘Post-Tropical’ Storm status at the 5pm advisory, but I think she was at that point around 5am because she had crossed into the extratropics and also because her forward motion was pretty fast (at least 28mph) which suggests she had a helping hand from the surrounding atmosphere (see Science Alert below).  She is currently centered at 38.5N, 75W and is continuing on that north-east path at a whopping 35mph. Officially her central pressure is 997mb, with winds remaining at 45mph.

<Science Alert!> A quick overview of storm systems - What is the difference between an extratropical storm, a post-tropical storm, a tropical storm, and a subtropical storm?

Extratropical Storm: These usually form in the extratropics (i.e. north of 30 deg N, or south of 30 deg S) and have cold air at their core. A cold air mass meets a warm air mass, and as the warm air rises (because it is lighter than the cold air), it releases potential energy that results in these systems. Because warm air rises, a low pressure is formed which is why these are also called low pressure systems. They are usually associated with fronts which are depicted on weather maps as lines of blue triangles (for a cold front) or red semi-circles (for a warm front). Because it's the collision of air masses, these systems can occur over land or water, and occur frequently in the winter in the US as snowstorms/blizzards or Nor'easters.

Post-tropical Storms: these are Tropical Storms that take on the meteorological characteristics of extratropical storms. The NHC changed the name from ‘extratropical storm’ to ‘post-tropical storm’ about 3 or 4 years ago. Before then, tropical storms that had moved far enough north and had the same characteristics of an extratropical storm used to be called (quite sensibly) extratropical storms. But in a concerted effort to make thing more confusing, someone decided to change the name in favour of a name that makes less scientific sense, but does dumb things down (presumably so they could understand). Can you tell I’m still rather annoyed at this naming fiasco? In previous years, it took me one small paragraph to explain extratropical storms… now I need two to get to the same thing!  

Tropical Storm: These usually form in the tropics and have warm air at their core. The energy source for
these differ from extratropical storms. These storms form over water only and the energy source is latent heat. Warm water evaporates into the air. As the rising warm moisture-laden air in the center reaches colder altitudes in the atmosphere, the water vapor condenses to form clouds and latent heat is released. The heaviest rains and winds are in a band close to the center. No fronts are associated with these storms (although 'waves' in the atmosphere are) - which makes it difficult to determine too far ahead of time when a storm will develop. A tropical storm is when the winds are greater than 34 knots (39 miles per hour). If the winds are less than that, it is a tropical depression. At least these are sensibly named… although I wait, with great misgivings, for the day when someone will want to rename Tropical Depressions (closed circulation, winds 17-38mph) as Pre-tropical storms. Grr.

A Subtropical Storm: These usually contain some characteristics of both extratropical and tropical systems. For example, imagine an extratropical storm moving over warmer water. Now the storm begins to get some energy from latent heat as well, and the cold air in the center (near the surface) is replaced by warm air, so the storm core can change from cold to warm. The heaviest rains and winds are not near the center. Like a tropical system, a subtropical storm is when the winds are greater than 34 knots (39 miles per hour). If the winds are less than that, it is a subtropical depression.

<End Science Alert!>

I suppose I shouldn’t be so skeptical of the official wind speed, should I? I received a report from Jen D. in Wilmington, North Carolina. She was quite upset with the damage that Tropical Storm Andrea did at her home as it whipped by. This afternoon she sent me a couple of photos (below). In her own words: “Andrea left utter destruction in her wake. Limbs down everywhere.”

I guess TS Andrea was stronger than I thought! I hope those gladioli make a speedy recovery from their harrowing experience.

Jen sent this report at around 10am: “It rained some overnight and was breezy.  Right now we are showing wind out of the S at 20 with gusts to 37 mph.  The worst that we had was around 3AM and even then it was only 28 mph with gusts to 39.” I also heard from Sage L. in New Brunswick, New Jersey at around 5pm who said “Not much action in NJ, just a rainy mess here today.”

Today, again, I looked at a number of sensors along the path of the storm to try and find one that was reporting 45mph winds. There are many more sensors over land, so plenty to choose from. For example, she passed 40 miles from Jacksonville, where the max. wind speed was 24mph, gusts of 33mph. She pretty much ran over Brunswick, GA. Maximum winds recorded were around 2am: 26mph, with gusts of 38mph. Moving on to South Carolina, the storm was close to Charleston. Max winds were 28 mph, with gusts of 37 mph. The center passed about 5 miles from Fayetville, North Carolina. The maximum wind speed was 17mph. I'm really not convinced of this 45mph wind speed business! If you want, you can look up any sensor they have on the network from this website: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/FL_cc_us.html (which I’ve currently got set up for Florida).

The circulation in the Atlantic Blob fizzled today, so all quiet on the eastern front for now. I’ll be back to wrap up ‘Post-Tropical’ Storm Andrea tomorrow.  

Happy National doughnut day! (And tomorrow it will be World Oceans Day, and the day after that is Happy Talk Like A Ducky Day… ;-)).

Night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Andrea: June 6, Update A

Oeuf, what a day! (or ‘Eggs, quelle journee!’ if you prefer the French translation ;-)). Storms and big meetings shouldn’t be allowed to be on the same day… it wreaks havoc on one’s shoes! Time for a cuppa tea. J

It’s been mostly dry and even sunny in St. Petersburg (Florida) since this afternoon. We did have a bit of a soggy night and morning with about an hour of thundery weather which, like some of our normal daily summer thunderstorms, dumped a few more drops of rain and gave us a few tornadoes. Places south of Tampa Bay had more thundery weather but by 5pm I heard that in Ft. Myers there was just “A bit of nagging rain” left. And I just heard from Mitch R. in Melbourne (on the east coast of Florida, not Australia!) that it was sunny over there by 7pm.

TS Andrea officially made landfall today at 5.45pm EST in the big bend area of Florida, right on target. The exact location was 29.5N, 83.4W, a mere 35 miles north of Cedar Key. Officially her central pressure was 993mb with winds of 65mph, which makes her a strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). She was moving at a fairly brisk 17mph in a NE direction.

I think today she was actually grown-up enough to be named Tropical Storm… but only just! I don’t think that she had sustained winds of 60-65 mph. I looked at every on-the-ground wind observation I could find in her path today (though they were few and far between) and none of them showed a maximum sustained wind speed stronger than about 45mph. You can see for yourself…

Dear Members of the Jury, I present Exhibit A:

This is a graph from the NOAA coastal station at Cedar Key (35 miles from landfall) showing wind speed before, during and after the storm passed by. This is the same data that you see in the Tides Online graphs but it is presented differently. The green line is the pressure which dropped as the storm approached, reached a low point as the storm was closest, and then started to increase as the storm went by. The blue line is the sustained wind speed and the red line are the wind gusts. You can see that the maximum sustained wind speed is about 36 knots, or 41.4 mph (1 kt = 1.15mph) (gusts are about 51mph).

And Exhibit B:

Another example are the observations from NOAA buoy 42036 in the Gulf, located at 28.5N, 84.5W (about 130 miles NW of Tampa). The center of Andrea passed very close to this location at 11am EDT (center was 28.2N, 84.3W). Again, the maximum wind speed was 35 knots, or just over 40 mph.

And Exhibit C (which I’ve not attached because my briefcase was a bit full, but I can upon request): The closest non-NOAA buoy was not quite as close to the center of the storm as the two examples above, but it was closer to Florida than the storm as she went by. The USF/COMPS mooring at 27.5N, 83.7 W showed a max wind speed of 31 mph.

Although the sustained winds were relatively weak (and hence her official winds should be lower), there were still some gusts which caused a bit of damage here and there – a branch falling on a fence or roof, or, as Jackie D. in St. Petersburg found when she got home, a glass table that lost a battle with a runaway umbrella (thanks for sharing!):

Overall though, TS Andrea was mostly a watery event with rain and storm surge. In St. Pete, the maximum storm surge was just over 2 feet above the normal tides. At Cedar Key, just south of the center at landfall, the storm surge so far has been about 4.5 ft above the normal tide… that would probably cover my car completely! Here is a photo of Gulfport from Randy L. (thanks!), showing the surge and waves:

TS Andrea is now over northern Florida at 30.3N, 82.4W, moving NE at 15mph. Officially her winds are 45mph, central pressure is 993mb. I think she is weaker than this at the moment and should really be downgraded to a Tropical Depression (17-38mph). She’s mostly just cloudy, with some pockets of rain, as you can see in this infrared (IR) satellite image (the main convective activity is offshore, over the deep warm waters of the Gulf Stream):

What is interesting is that she is quite large – extending all the way from Florida to the DC area (the patch of clouds over New England are from a different source). I think the NHC forecast track is pretty good, but I am not sure she will remain at Tropical Storm strength for the next 4 days.

There is an Atlantic Blob out there… it has some pretty good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere and some reasonable convection. The NHC give him a 10% chance of developing in the next 2 days. I’ll look at him properly tomorrow.

I was going to talk about the pathetic state of our critical observation capabilities which is hampering what we know about storms (including accurate forecasts), but I’ve rambled on long enough for one sitting! I’ll have to save that for a rainy day (well… maybe the next rainy day J). It’s half past wine o’clock! ;-)

Tally ho!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Andrea: June 5, Update A

I just learned that there’s a 13 foot python on the loose in St. Petersburg (Florida)! Eeek. Forget the storms, it’s time to “run away, run away!” (quote rather aptly attributed to Monty Python).

Meanwhile, in the Gulf our little blobette is now Tropical Storm Andrea. A plane was sent into the system and found closed circulation this afternoon. <Jargon Alert!> Closed circulation basically means the winds form a complete circle. Easy peasy, huh? <End Jargon Alert!>

At the 10pm CDT (11pm EST) forecast, she was centered at around 26.0N, 86.3W, heading North at 6mph.  Her central pressure is 1002mb, with winds of 40mph.

A Tropical Storm is defined as a storm with closed circulation and winds of 39-73mph.

<Rant Alert!> Great googliemooglies! I can’t believe they named her!! I completely, totally and utterly do NOT agree with giving this system a named Tropical Storm status! When they named her, they said her winds were 40mph…  1mph above the cut off for storms. Since then she has steadily deteriorated (as I will show below). It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that this makes her a mere tropical depression (at the most)! She should never have been named a Tropical Storm!! <end rant alert! (for now)>   

Let’s see what is going on shall we? First, the center is at around 26N, 86.3W. You can see that this is still very much on the western side of the convection in the infrared satellite image, which shows that she still is experiencing strong wind shear. And the corresponding water vapor satellite image shows a lot of dry air to her west. Both of these are inhibiting her development and have been doing so all along.

<Technical Alert!> Satellite Imagery: I mainly use three sorts of satellite images: visible, water vapour, and infrared. The visible one is obvious… it is what you would see if you took a black and white photo. Best used during daylight hours of course! ;-) The water vapor image is also pretty obvious…it shows how much water vapor there is in the atmosphere. Brown areas are dry (think of parched deserts) and any other colour indicates some amount of water vapor. The infrared satellite image is the most interesting though because not only does it show where the storm is, but it also gives us an indication of how strong it is and what sort of weather we have. The colours represent how high the clouds reach into the atmosphere because they are based on the temperature at the top of the cloud (which is what the satellite sees). It gets colder the higher you get in the troposphere (as I mentioned yesterday), so we can tell from cloud top temperature how deep the clouds are and therefore how strong the convection is! The red colours are very big high clouds with the coldest temperatures (other than a dark gray), and blues and whites are lower, warmer clouds. The redder the cloud colour, the more active the convection. My general rule of thumb (having seen these images and lived under them at the same time) is that blue and yellow areas are mostly clouds, with some rain in the yellow areas. But as you get to the orange and red, you get thunderstorms and possible tornadoes (in the red/dark gray areas). <End Technical Alert!>

I pulled the satellite image above (here again) at around 11.45pm but I also have the infrared satellite image that I pulled at around 8.30pm for comparison(underneath the 11.45pm image):

You can already see that the yellow (rainy) area has decreased quite a bit in the last ~3 hours, which indicates that she is weakening. The red patches that you see are over the very deep warm water of the Loop Current (as I mentioned yesterday). All day today this system has been moving over the northern edge of the Loop Current so, as expected, she had quite a bit of thundery weather in her in those areas which did help her strengthen a bit (but not a lot).  As she moves farther north, she moves away from that deep warm water source, and given the wind shear and dry air, she will continue to weaken. I would expect some rain because the sea surface temperature is a balmy 27-29 deg C. She will be more of a rain event than a wind event though, and some parts will get buckets of rain (with maybe a smidgen of thunder), so get your wellie boots out! (especially if you have a graduation ceremony in a field anywhere south of the big bend tomorrow).

As for track… she is moving at a leisurely 6mph. The forecast has her making landfall in the big bend region of Florida. I agree with this (even though I don’t agree with naming her as a Tropical Storm… I thought I’d mention that in case you missed my subtle hints earlier). One thing to watch out for if you are on the west coast of Florida is storm surge, which looks pretty low right now actually. Because the winds move in an anticlockwise direction around a tropical storm, she will be pushing water onto the coast (including into Tampa Bay) in areas south of the center, and pushing water off the coast in areas north of the center. The slower she moves, the more time there is for water to pile up. If you live in the Cedar Key area, if I recall correctly, you are prone to higher storm surge as she passes to the north of you (if she does), so definitely keep an eye on that.

<Technical Alert!> (another Technical Alert in the same entry… time to have a second glass of wine to match. Hmm… I think I may have stumbled across a new science drinking game!! ;-)) To look at the storm surge I use NOAA’s National Ocean Service website, Tides Online: http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html. Click on the state you are interested in, and then a location within that state. For example, here is the graph from St. Petersburg:

The top graph shows the water level. In this graph, the red line is the actual observed sea level, the blue line is what the predicted water level would be because of the tides, and the green line is the difference between the two (less than 0.5 ft). The height of the green line gives you the storm surge level.  The graph below that is wind speed and direction. Below that is air pressure, and below that is air and sea surface temperature. <End Technical Alert!>

By the way, as she moves across Florida, and heads north to Georgia and up along the east coast to South Carolina, North Carolina and beyond (all by Friday evening), she will still have rain because she’ll begin to interact with the Gulf Stream. But, given she’ll be a fast moving system, I don’t think she’ll have too much time to organize. And I really think she should be a Tropical Depression at the most, if not just a low by then!   

Time to go sleep now… mutter mutter… Tropical Storm indeed… mumble grumble…

I’ll be back tomorrow with an on-the-ground report on this blobette! (currently it’s raining a bit and not very windy… in fact it is better than the last couple of seasons of British summer weather!).

Night night for now,

J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Gulf of Mexico Blobette: June 4, Update A

I’ve been holding off on writing about the blobette in the Gulf for a couple of days because I wasn’t sure she would amount to much, but I think the time has come to say a few words. This is the little blobette that almost could, but then decided not to, and then changed her mind and thought she’d give it a go anyway, but may not get there after all. How's that for a 'few words'? ;-) She is a little confused, poor thing. Aww. But it’s completely understandable because she has conflicting influences – some pushing her in one direction, others holding her back.

She didn’t have much circulation to talk about until today really. This afternoon she started to drift away from the ‘calming’ influence of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico, and since then her circulation has slowly started to improve.  But there is some good news. First, the circulation at the moment is in the lower half of the troposphere (ooh, how exciting… first <Science Alert> of the season! And there was much rejoicing! ;-)).

<Science Alert> The troposphere. Our atmosphere is divided into layers – like a trifle or seven-layer dip or lasagna (depending on what country you are from). Each layer has air temperature either increasing with height or decreasing with height. The troposphere is one of these layers. It is the lowest section of our atmosphere and extends up from the earth to about 15-16km in the equatorial regions, and to about 8km in the polar regions of the planet. All our 'weather' essentially occurs in the troposphere. It is defined by decreasing air temperature with increasing height. You would know this if you climbed a mountain. Or the easier option, of course, is to just look at pictures of mountains and see the snow at the top (known as the ‘Florida option’). J The top of the troposphere is called the tropopause. Strong tropical storms have clouds that reach as high as the tropopause - and in a few very strong cases, they can extend even higher into the next layer up. The layer of the atmosphere above the troposphere is called the stratosphere, which is defined by air temperature increasing with height. The ozone hole is in the stratosphere. <End Science Alert>

For our blobette, not only is the circulation in the lower half of the troposphere (which means a weaker storm), but there is also quite a bit of wind shear which is inhibiting her. You can see this in the satellite image:

The low-level circulation is just north of the Yucatan, but the clouds and rain are all to the east (southeast/northeast) of that area because of wind shear. (I’ll explain how to read satellite images properly in a later post… got to give you all something to come back for! ;-)). The other good thing in the atmosphere is that there is a lot of dry air over her center and to the west. This will really help in stemming her development.

From an oceanic point of view, we have a really good set up… it’s so good that I’m beside myself with glee and think this calls for a second glass of wine! ;-) Although the sea surface temperatures are around 27-28 deg C (a storm needs water warmer than 26.5 deg C to develop), the Loop Current <Science Alert> is pretty far south and doesn’t really extend far up into the Gulf at the moment! I know, you are wondering how this is enough of a reason for a second glass of wine… first, one doesn’t need a reason, and second, it’s very exciting for anyone who lives along the gulf coast. And look, it’s your lucky day… a second <Science Alert> in one entry. Let the rejoicing continue! J   

<Science Alert> The Loop Current. The Loop Current is part of an ocean current system that flows from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Strait, and then out of the Gulf of Mexico through the Straits of Florida, and up the east coast of the US. How far it extends into the Gulf of Mexico varies from year to year and month to month. Last June it’s northernmost extent was around the same latitude as Tampa Bay (in Florida). This June however, it looks like it’s northernmost extent is about as far north as the Keys! As this current flows around Florida, it changes name to become the Florida Current. Then as it flows up the east coast, it changes name again and is known as the Gulf Stream. It leaves the US east coast around North Carolina and flows across the north Atlantic to the UK. Why is this current system important for tropical storms? This current system is well known because it has the deepest warm waters, and is very fast flowing. The deep warm waters mean that tropical storms that pass over any part of this current system have a jolly good (British understatement) chance of becoming stronger. <end Science Alert>

So, because the Loop Current is so far to the south, it looks like she may not interact with the deepest warm waters very much… which means she won’t develop as much! Now isn't that exciting? :-)

It doesn’t seem likely that she will amount to much, but I’ll be back tomorrow.

I’ll sign off with something that Ian H. forwarded: An 85 year old lady from Kentucky was asked what she would do differently if she could live her life again… she said she’d eat more ice cream. J I thoroughly approve and will do the same right now. J (“If I Had My Life To Live Over Again” by Nadine Stair: http://projectbebold.com/archives/807)

Cheerio!

J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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June 1: Start of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season and Gulf of Mexico Blobette

Welcome to the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season my tropical storm peeps! That was a rather nice off-season with no early wake-up alarms for a change. So refreshing. J I think this should be a rather dull and quiet year, with the predictions showing only 403 storms (plus or minus 398), 227 hurricanes (plus or minus 225), of which 3 will be major (plus or minus 5). ;-)

Ok, so you may have heard rumours that this will be an above-active season for the Atlantic (zero storms so far) and below average for the eastern Pacific (two named storms so far). Here are some official predictions:

Tropical Storm Risk (prediction date: April 5): 15 (+/- 4) named storms, 8 (+/- 3) hurricanes, 3 (+/- 2) major hurricanes

Klotzbach-Gray/Colorado State University (prediction date: April 10): 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes

UK Met Office (prediction date: May 15): 14 (+/- 4) named storms, 9 (+/- 5) hurricanes

NOAA (prediction date: May 23): 13-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, 3-6 major hurricanes

The average season has 12 named storms, with 6 hurricanes, of which 3 are major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). I notice that the US seasonal predictions (NOAA and CSU) lean towards the high side and the European forecasts (TSR and UKMO) allow for fewer storms. Taking all these expert opinions into consideration, we walk away with three amazing possibilities for this year: (1) a below-average season; (2) an average season; and, (3) an above-average season.

Of course we could have an above-average season like 2003 (16 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major) where most of the real activity remained in the Atlantic, or we could have a below-average season like 1992 (7 storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major), where the 1 major storm was a dinky category 5 called Hurricane Andrew that hit Miami! So although playing the numbers game is entertaining, it means diddly-squat in the grand scheme of things… everyone should be prepared. Like me. I have my hurricane supplies complete and ready (well I will, as soon as I’ve bought some bottled water)... batteries and flashlight, two tubs of ice cream (different flavours), twelve bottles of wine (mostly red – no point getting too many white if there is no fridge to cool it in!), first-aid kit, some ice cream cones, canned food, batteries for the camera/video/radio, a non-electronic wine bottle opener, smart phone to tweet from, a non-electronic can opener, sunscreen, good books to read, insect repellant, hand-held fan, cheese, bags of PG Tips in a ziploc bag etc. ;-)

I know there is a little blobette in the Gulf at the moment… this is the remains of the former Tropical Storm Barbara (who is trying to cross Mexico from the eastern Pacific). At the moment she doesn’t have much to her… no circulation and very little convection. I’ve been keeping an eye on her since she was a blobette in the Pacific, and I’ll continue to keep an eye on her of course, just in case she pulls a fast one. If she does, she’ll be the first named storm of the Atlantic season… Andrea (which, coincidentally, is the name of my mother-in-law, who is actually very very nice and not like a storm at all! J). The next two storms after Andrea will be Barry and Chantal.

To conclude my amazingly fabulous and award-breaking opening remarks… here are a few background notes about this blog so you know what you are getting into (you can always watch reality TV if you prefer, or, for even more entertainment, watch the grass grow):

1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and tropical storms (and whatever else pops into my head that may, with some imagination, fit those three words). It is just what I think.

2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned.

3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometime four. If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to write, let me know and I'll send out updates as frequently as you like.

4. I hope you like Monty Python and Eddie Izzard. And other funny stuff.

5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please do not hesitate to ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you. I can also cut and paste from previous entries as well as the next person so if I say something or use some "scientific jargon" (ooh ahh, how thrilling), please please ask me about it.

6. I often write tongue-in-cheek, which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm, irony, and puns are all acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended - like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece of chocolate or a drink instead.

7. I'm sure every cloud in the Atlantic is exciting to some but, unless I'm bored, I'll usually write about those that I think have a chance of developing.

8. Despite what you may have heard, I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because they have the most up-to-date information!!

9. If you are reading this via email, I reckon you should check out the website (http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com). It’s much prettier. And I may be working towards transitioning to the website only format anyway … as a part of my top-secret grand plan to take over the world (bwa ha ha ß evil laughter in case you were wondering).

10. I confess, I am a twit. I am on twitter (@jyovianstorm). Twitter is cool. Just like bow-ties are cool. (Dr. Who).  

I’ll be back if the storm-formerly-known-as-Barbara does anything… otherwise I’ll be back when we have the next blobette!

Ciao for now!

J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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December 2: Second attempt at last day of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

<trumpets> I hereby formally declare that *this* is it…the last day of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season! J

The Atlantic blobette is fizzling out in the face of strong wind shear and cold water temperatures. Quite right too. What on earth was Mother Nature thinking? There is holiday music in the air! ‘Tis the glitter and light season, not the hurricane season!

Before I begin my final remarks, a quick note on Typhoon Bopha over in the western Pacific... the storm passed south of Palau late yesterday/earlier today. I think it was probably a cat 2 storm (range:  96-110mph) as it passed by. The eye vanished earlier today, after it’s interaction with Palau, which means it dropped down to being a Tropical Storm/weak cat 1 (maybe around 85-90mph winds). However the eye has just re-developed,

as it continues on its track towards the southern Philippines, which means it is now a strong cat 1 (90-95mph) - officially they say it is a cat 3 storm at the moment (range: 111-130mph)!

May I just say: Thank goodness that the overly busy 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season is finally over!! J J

The final official tally was 19 named storms, of which 10 were hurricanes, but only 2 major hurricanes - Michael and Sandy, when she was in the Caribbean (major hurricanes are cat 3 or higher). This exceeded all predictions of the season (made before, and even revised during, the season)!

NOAA had forecast 9-15 named storms, of which 4-8 would become hurricanes, and 1-3 would be major. An average season has about 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes… so they were really hedging their bets on an average season. Oopsy. They changed this prediction in August (just over two months into the season) to 12-17 named storms, 5-8 hurricanes, 2-3 major hurricanes. Oopsy again. They weren’t alone in underestimating the season. A well-known private company predicted 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Colorado State University had forecast 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The UK Met Office had forecast 7 – 13 named storms. If some of those ‘made-up’ wishy-washy storms in the early part of the season hadn’t been named, these numbers would probably have been about right.  

Goodness me but wasn’t some of the official forecasting in the first half of this season a load of codswallop? In fact, like the entire 6-film Star Wars saga, the first half was a tad irksome. First, it really did look like someone, somewhere, was concerned about getting the right numbers to match the official forecast so they were naming storms willy-nilly, including upgrading Chris, who lasted only ~3 days in total, to a hurricane (for less than 6 hours). No wonder they ‘exceeded’ their seasonal ‘prediction’! Second, the track forecasts were all over the place! Tropical Storm Debbie was forecast to make landfall in Texas, and two days later made landfall north of Tampa Bay in Florida! Third, the intensity. Eeek. Where to begin? I think our ability to predict the intensity isn’t as bad as it was made out to be - if actual data is used (gasp, horror!) and we don’t rely only on models! ...  “use the Force Luke”. It does mean you have to understand what nature is providing of course. Always a bit of a challenge.

The last half of the season was different  – did someone find the light switch part way through Hurricane Isaac (forecast to hit Tampa Bay during the RNC but just brought a bit of rain on its way to southern Louisiana)? After that, the NHC track forecasts improved dramatically, to the point where I was  finally convinced that the 2 day track forecast was really excellent (i.e. better than mine ;-)). The good news is that if that continues in the next season, I can just sit back and refer to them for the last two days of track. Of course they still have a way to go on intensity so I can’t quite retire completely! (yet ;-)).

But that’s enough of that! It is time to say THANK YOU! Thank you for continuing to read my profound, witty, charming, entertaining, fabulous, hilarious, and clearly quite modest and humble writings! Thank you for telling your friends and family (I assume they are still your friends and family? ;-))… this season my blog website alone has had over 22,000 hits (current tally is 43, 550), with a few tens of thousands reading via other means too. Obviously you all have discerning and refined tastes, are intelligent and literate, and have the best sense of humour! ;-) This will be the 599^th entry on my website… practically a book that Tolstoy would be envious of! ;-)

My sincere thanks to those who sent me jokes, asked questions, and sent comments, and especially to those of you who were in the path of storms and continued to send updates, photos and videos! I hope that everyone has recovered, or is on the path to recovery, from assorted storms that hit so many parts of the Caribbean, the Gulf and Atlantic, and the eastern seaboard this year. And thanks again to those who are always there to help before, during, and after a storm has hit! I’d also like to thank all those who helped to bring this to you: to those who provided the data via planes, on the ground (or over the water), and by satellites; to the folks at the NHC for all their hard work and for giving me something to grumble about ;-) ; and to my great technical support team… Doug M. at the CMS/USF (http://www.marine.usf.edu) in Florida for helping with the listserve, to Chris H. in Georgia and Ben A. for help with the website. Last but not least, thanks to my family and friends for your usual attempts at keeping me sane and supplied with cheese (hmmm… cheese J)… and especially thanks to my husband, Ben Alpi, for being understanding of all the hours I’ve spent on my ‘hobby’, in my own little world, writing and analyzing. By the way, for those who are into westerns (or even if you are not), he has just completed a lovely short epic western, Cowboy Creed. Check out the trailer on his production company’s (Runic Films) website:  http://runicfilms.com/.

Now it is time to hibernate for the year! <yawn> You can follow me on twitter, where I expect I will continue to be a twit (JyovianStorm on twitter). I also have one or two other things I have to do during the next six months… like drink wine, eat cheese, have a cup of tea, eat some ice cream (probably not all at the same time though). I wish you all a safe and happy holiday season, a safe and happy non-hurricane season, a safe and happy end-of-the-world-day-according-to-the-Mayan-Calendar-but-not-really, and a very merry New Year!!  I’ll be back in 2013 (and hopefully no sooner, unless they confirm the Higgs-Boson, aliens find us, or something along those lines)!

TOODLE PIP!!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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November 30: Final Day of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

November 30: Final Day of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season! … Or is it? <dun-dun-dun>(dramatic music!)(dramatic pause!)

Can you believe it? There’s a blobette on the NHC website!

Either someone didn’t clean their screen or we lost the end-of-the-season memo to Mother Nature. Again. Time to have a glass of wine and some wenslydale cheese. Again. (any excuse! ;-))

About this Atlantic Blobette: She is currently at around 25N, 42W. There is some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere and a low pressure front/trough in the upper levels of the troposphere which means this one could have a chance of getting stronger. However, the wind shear is strong and the water temperatures here are around 23-24 deg C, which are rather on the cool side for a proper, grown-up storm. But she is trying. The convection has improved during the day today. If she develops it is purely because of the upper atmosphere, which means she would not be a tropical storm but a sub-tropical storm. The next name is Valerie.  

You may be thinking that it’s a little bit odd to be wearing cute winter boots, a wooly hat, and gloves and *still* reading about the Atlantic hurricane season. It is a tad unusual to have a December Atlantic storm, but remember the reason we say the hurricane season is between June 1 and November 30 is because 97% of all storms develop during that time. If Valerie develops, she’s one of the 3% (see http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2012/06/june-1-start-of-2012-atlantic-hurricane.html for my plot of how storms are distributed throughout the year).

But if you think this is odd, things are even odder in the western Pacific! There is a preeettyyy strong Typhoon that has developed within 5 deg of the equator!!! Typhoon Bopha, currently at 4.5N,  has a good eye:

(satellite image from the NRL Monterey Navy site) and winds estimated to be about 130mph which makes it strong cat 3/weak cat 4 storm. It’s heading towards Palau (on Sunday), which apparently hasn’t seen a major Typhoon since 1991. Eek! After that it is heading towards the Philippines (next Weds), where it is projected to be a category 1 storm. A storm forming within 5 deg of the equator is very rare, but not unheard of. The storm that developed closest to the equator was Typhoon Vamei, which formed on 26 December, 2001, at 1.4 deg N of the equator in the South China Sea and made landfall in Malaysia with strong tropical storm/weak cat 1 winds.

With all this going on, how can one possibly go into hibernation for the off-season today?? I guess I’ll be back tomorrow. Oh lucky, lucky you! ;-)

Ciao!
J.  

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Sandy, the final entry: November 1, Update A

My last word on Sandy: good luck in the clean-up and recovery process. Thanks to all those who worked through this and every other storm such as the emergency workers, and those work on after the storms have gone by, such as the utility companies. I hear that a Florida power company van was seen in New Jersey today. You are all very much appreciated!

Today marks the start of the last month of the 2012 hurricane season. I hope someone has told Mother Nature this! Remember back in 2005, when the ‘end of the season’ memo got lost? No? Well Edward in Florida reminded me of The Saga of Epsilon and Zeta: http://xkcd.com/1126/. J (A spot check shows words directly taken from NHC advisories of the time!! – thanks to Karen for the heads up on that).

I’ll be back if we have ‘Valerie’ out there.  Until then, don’t forget to enjoy a nice cup of tea. J

Tally ho!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Sandy, The Aftermath: October 31, Update A

Obviously a Full Moon week! Higher than usual tides on Monday night (actual full moon) when Sandy made landfall; Disney bought Star Wars (Tuesday); and Zombies having drinks with Kermit and Miss Piggy, while bananas in tutus go running around looking for sweeties (Wednesday)! (Not quite a sentence I thought I’d ever write).   

Here are a couple of photos taken by M. Ricky, a supervisor on the subway system in NYC (sent via Jose in Florida – thank you both!):

The first is looking down on a station on the Sea Beach line, the second is the 86^th station on the “N” Sea Beach line. It took me a moment to figure out what I was looking at in the first one. That  is just a small sample of the surreal images coming out of the eastern half of the US. Unfortunately the death toll from Sandy continues to rise. My condolences to those who lost loved ones from the Carribbean to Canada! L And to those who sustained damage, that is not good, but I am glad you are ok.

As the clean up from Sandy really gets into gear, on the other side of the world Tropical Cyclone Nilam made landfall earlier today, just south of Chennai in southern India. Although winds were only 65mph, making her a mid-to-strong Tropical Storm, she would have pushed water onshore in Chennai. Here was the scene from Staten Island yesterday (credit unknown):

and the one off Chennai today (credit BBC):

Tanker grounding galore!

I, too, have almost ground to a halt in talking about Sandy. She was not really a tropical system by the time she made landfall. There is an amazing cross-sectional image of the inside of Sandy, taken with a satellite called ‘Cloudsat’, on this website: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79577. The discussion under the image is rather good too, if you are interested in the scientific and techincal side of the storm.

As every seventh news item is about Star Wars or Disney (election, what election?), here is my nod to Halloween:

I have one more item to share… tomorrow.
Night night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Extratropical Storm Sandy: October 30, Update A

The remains of the-storm-formerly-known-as-Sandy are centered around a location ENE of Pittsburg in Pennsylvania. She has winds of 40mph, and is moving NW at around 8 mph, heading for north/western New York and then up to Canada. Central pressure is 992mb.

I have assorted personal reports and photos of flooding, trees falling on houses, cars submerged, and even a video of a transformer exploding (thanks to Joe in Long Island). Sameer, our on-the-ground reporter in New York yesterday, managed to get out of Manhattan today after walking down 21 flights of stairs with his family, including a toddler and a 3 week old. I’m sure you have all heard in the news. Almost 60 died from Sandy in the Caribbean, another 40 so far in the US. This will be the last time we have a storm named Sandy, I’m pretty sure about that!

Some images to more-or-less wrap this one up…

From North Carolina… the final images of the Bounty taken by the USCG. Aww.

From North Carolina… inland… snow (thanks to Andrea A. near Ashville). Brrr.

From Ocean City, New Jersey (credit unknown). Smirk.

And also in the news today, in case you want a small break from Sandy stuff…Disney announced it was buying Lucasfilms…

I’ll probably write my last entry on Sandy tomorrow.
Night!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Extratropical Storm Sandy: October 29, Update A

Definitely a two-wine-glass sort of a day! The good, the bad, and the downright-not-very-pretty-at-all!

First though, a big thank you for the reports and photos that came in throughout the day from Maryland, New Jersey and New York – via email, facebook, twitter!! I know it is not over yet with high tide on its way, but I am glad you are all more-or-less ok!

‘Hurricane’ Sandy made landfall at around 5pm this evening (according to the satellite images – the visible and infrared grabbed at 5.30pm are below  - and around 8pm according to the NHC/radar images), with the center going over southern New Jersey, about 5 miles south of Atlantic City.

Winds were officially 80mph at landfall. Interestingly, the National Weather Service station in Atlantic City (north of landfall) recorded a high wind speed of 38mph today and Cape May (NJ, south of landfall) showed winds of almost 60mph (with stronger gusts) – this shows that the strongest winds were most likely on the southern side of the storm, which where Sandy and that low pressure front merged. Central pressure was 947mb. These wind speeds were really a consequence of the front more than the hurricane/tropical storm.

Officially the winds are still 80mph, but she really isn’t a hurricane. The NHC said (in the 5pm advisory) that she was already extratropical, but they would continue their advisories until she made landfall. They anticipate their last advisory to be at 11pm tonight. They have re-classified her as a post-tropical system already (extratropical). For those still being impacted, and those that will be impacted as she moves inland and heads north, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center will pick up on the advisories beginning tomorrow morning. For those who are north of New Jersey, there is, unfortunately, more to come… more wind and flooding tonight and tomorrow.

Her ‘center’ is now at 39.6N, 74.6W, and she’s heading WNW at about 21mph. She will move inland and head north tomorrow. The not-so-great-news is that her winds will continue to blow water on-shore in New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and places north for the next few hours/day. From tides online, the highest surge is now around Manhattan and Connecticut. It is currently greater than 9ft above normal at The Battery in NY, and 10ft above normal at Kings Point in Long Island Sound, NY. New Haven, CT, is showing over 8.5 ft above normal. High tide this evening means that the Battery will have water levels of over 14ft, Kings Point will probably be 14-15ft, and New Haven will be around 14ft!

A complete smorgasbord of reports and images from the day (from south to north):

Beach erosion on the east coast of Florida was quite severe:

Photo of steps that, three days ago, went down to the beach. Thanks to Mitch R. from Florida!

The Bounty, a beautiful replica of the original wooden sailing vessel, sank off North Carolina today. It started taking on water as Sandy went by overnight. The U.S. Coast Guard rescued 14 of the 16 people on-board, recovered one and the last I heard, the Captain was still missing. She was en route to her winter home port in St. Petersburg, Florida. I am not sure why they were out there!

Chris M., just north of DC at 6.23pm: “so far we are OK. We've had about 5 inches of rain where we are just north of DC. However, I've got to say that having a hurricane with air temps of 42 deg is just NOT right. Hope you are enjoying some wine… ” … which translates as ‘have some wine’. Oh, ok. If you insist! Glad you are ok!

Also from New Jersey, stellar reporting throughout the day from Laura S., who was very close to the landfall location! The dock I showed yesterday was completely submerged this morning, with water coming up to houses (photos from Laura S.):

 Around 9pm: “Water up to the garage, 3 plus hours to high tide… the house will start to flood shortly and so long to my jeep which I just love. Saving grace, dogs are safe and sound on the second story.” (They moved the other cars to higher ground and kept the jeep in case they needed to get out in an emergency). They are on the Mullica River. Be careful!

From Sameer in New York City. 3.10pm: “A crane near top of highrise construction site being built in midtown is toppling from high height. Could fall to ground. Haven’t felt any crazy gusts yet. Rain is minimum.” (I’m sure the photos are all over the news, so I won’t even bother including this). 7.30pm: “Ok, the wind is here. Limited rain, but the wind is bad.” 8.46pm: “We just lost power.”  Consolidated Power shut off power to Lower Manhattan around 9pm, but I think equipment failure before that lead to power loss in Greenwich Village and Lower Manhattan (photo credit unknown!):

There are also reports of seawater in the subway and definitely in the tunnels this evening.  

Stay safe… stay indoors and wait it out!
More tomorrow!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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'Hurricane' Sandy: October 28, Update A

If you are anywhere along the coast between Virginia and New York, you should only be reading this if you have made your preparations for Sandy! Those I’ve heard from in various states are ready or preparing. If you are in a mandatory evacuation zone (or even if you are not), please heed the warnings from your local emergency managers. They really know the local area best – where it will flood, where it won’t, what roads get jammed etc.

Sandy is still off the North Carolina coast and south of Cape Hatteras, at 34N, 70.9W, but according to the forecasts, is on the verge of making the turn to the north. She is officially heading NE at 15mph, but if things go as forecast, we should see a NNE movement in the next advisory at 11pm. She did slow down between my last update and this one, and the track shifted slightly north so landfall looks like it will be in New Jersey now. Winds are still 75mph, central pressure 950mb, so no change in intensity. I still think she’s a bit weaker than this and is a Tropical Storm, but the entire situation is a little more complicated so I’ll let that part go.

Sandy is going to be quite windy with a lot of coastal flooding (including up estuaries). There will be some rain, but not the usual torrential downpours that can come along with a hurricane/tropical storm, so that won’t be the biggest issue. The winds may take down trees and tree limbs, which means potential power losses. And because she’s a hybrid storm, the low front moving in from the west is bringing cold weather with it (I am not sure about how much snow there will be – probably not as much as a normal nor’easter).

I don’t think the tropical storm side of Sandy will change too much between now and the forecast landfall (which is supposed to occur overnight on Monday/Tuesday). If she was just a tropical system, I’d say that she would weaken. Although wind shear is a little weaker, she is over sea surface water temperatures of 26 deg C, so only just about warm enough to sustain her convection. She will cross a patch where the surface water temperatures are 26-27 deg C (this is the Gulf Stream off Cape Hatteras), but then she will get back over water that is too cool to sustain her as a tropical storm. This is when she will transtition to be an extratropical storm. She still has a lot of dry air in her, which is another reason she doesn’t have too much convection. You can see this in these satellite images (visible, infra-red to show the convection, and water vapour to show the dry air):

I’m guessing that black patch in the water vapour may be levels below a certain threshold. The tricky part of this puzzle is the low pressure front and how it will interact with Sandy.  

Looking at some real observations… From the SECOORA website that I showed you a couple of days ago, the nearest buoy is now about 70 miles northwest of her center, so well within the storm bands. That has wind measurements of about 32mph, with air pressure at 969mb and still decreasing. From Tides Online, I see that the maximum storm surge so far has been at Duck, NC and assorted places in Virginia, where the peak surge was 4 ft above normal but is decreasing now (for now). Ocean City Inlet in Maryland, places in Delaware, and Cape May in New Jersey had/have water levels 3 ft above normal. North of there the water is currently 2 ft above normal at Atlantic City (NJ) and in the Hudson River and at Montauk, in New York (I used to live on Long Island years ago and loved it!), and a bit higher in Long Island Sound.

<Observations Alert> If you want to look at observations of wind, temperature, pressure etc at places that are on land, you can go to this National Weather Service site:  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/osd/portal.shtml. Pick the state of interest from the drop down menu under the Automated Surface Stations. Click on a location under ‘Current Weather Conditions’, and you will get a table of wind speed, temperature, pressure etc. For example, the observed winds in Atlantic City are about 21mph at the moment. <End Observations Alert>

Here is a photo from Laura S. in New Jersey, whose home is on the Mullica River near Atlantic City:

This was her dock earlier today … that is not high tide. The water levels will continue to increase… the storm is still blowing water onshore and will do so all day tomorrow.  

Good luck to all my family, friends, and readers in the northeast! If you have a chance, let me know how things are going.  

Stay Safe!
J.

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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'Hurricane' Sandy: October 27, Update A

Mother Nature has upstaged American politics. With 10 days to go before the Presidential election, Hurricane Sandy was a higher ranking news item (from what I heard), followed by the changes in the candidates’ schedules because of the storm. Science is important! :-)  

The NHC had a brief moment of clarity this morning and downgraded Sandy to a Tropical Storm, but then decided that too many people would think that would sound just like a walk in Central Park, so they better call her a hurricane after all. Sigh. Officially she now has winds of 75 mph, central pressure 961mb. This makes her very barely a cat 1 (cat 1 range: 74-95mph), so calling her a Hurricane is really for the psychological impact.

She is at around 30.5N, 74.7W, heading NE at 13 mph, and is pretty much on that NHC forecast track. Given the data I have today, I would agree with their general forecast. The slower she goes, the farther north will her landfall be. At the moment it looks like landfall will be in Delaware, but if she slows down, then her landfall will be farther north. She is forecast to make the turn to the north and then northwest tomorrow evening.

Here is a visible satellite image of Sandy (taken at night, so a little dark, but you can see her center), as well as the matching infrared satellite image so you can see how much convection she has:

For all you new kids tuning in (hello & sorry about the circumstances!), the blue area is mostly cloud, the light yellow is light rain, the dark yellow/orange is heavy rain, and if I show you an image with red surrounding dark gray, that means thunderstorms and possible tornadoes. As you can see, she is mostly just clouds and light rain, nothing too strong at all. For those of you who remember Irene last year, Sandy is nothing like that. Nowhere near the same amount of rain!

Also, here is an infrared satellite image of the Northwest Atlantic so you can see Sandy in a larger context:

The concern really isn’t Sandy-the-tropical-storm (which alone is pretty weak), but Sandy-the-hybrid-tropical-storm/low-pressure-front. The front has almost merged with Sandy’s western flank – you can see the ‘straight’ line of the front, it is currently over western Florida and Georgia/Tennessee/Kentucky/Ohio etc. The front also doesn’t have much rain in it either. So Sandy will be a windy, with some some storm surge (and a bit of rain).

The storm surge on the eastern seaboard (from tides online; see this entry for instructions on how to do this: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2012/08/tropical-storm-isaac-august-26-update-b.html), is highest in Virginia at the moment, with water levels at Sewells Point and Money Point on the southern side of the Chesapeake Bay showing water levels at 2 ft above normal. Although the winds are not very strong (about 35mph max), the wind direction is just right in blowing water into the Chesapeake Bay estuary and onto the southern shore.  

<Observations Alert>Yesterday I told you where to look for some fabulous real-time data in the Atlantic and along the coast from Florida to North Carolina. If you want to see what is going on in the ocean and along the shoreline from Cape Hatteras, NC to Cape Cod, MA, look here: http://assets.maracoos.org/. On the lower left panel, click on the button next to ‘Turn all models off’ under the ‘Models’ section so you can actually see the stations with real observations clearly. Also make sure there is a tick mark in the top 5 boxes under the top left section called ‘Point Observations’ so you get a larger range of coastal stations as well. Then scroll over the dot (station) on the map that you are interested in, and click to look at the real data. If you click on the graph looking icon next to the observation you are interested in (for example, wind speed in mph), the graph at the bottom of the page shows a timeline of those observations. You have to close the ‘data’ box to see the graph though. Ta-da. <End Observations Alert>   

It looks like there are a lot of preparations going on for ‘Hurricane’ Sandy in the Virginia/Maryland/Delaware/New Jersey/New York area today, for example, as seen on a shoreline in New Jersey…...

I’ll be back with more tomorrow! Time for a glass-o-wine and a bit of Saturday night classic British TV… As Time Goes By (which, coincidentally has a character called Sandy!). :-)
Ciao,
J.

p.s. Ok, ok, actually, that photo is one I took today at the science festival… thanks to the anonymous person who let me take that photo of his t-shirt! J

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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