Post-tropical Storm Zeta: October 29, Update A

Post-tropical storm Zeta re-emerged from the US this afternoon and is now firmly over the Atlantic drifting away. It was a tough little beastie - a lot of wind caused downed trees and power outages. Unfortunately, 6 people also perished so I think this is a storm name we'll be skipping the next time we get into the Greek alphabet! 

That's it for Zeta from me. There's another little blob in the Caribbean - we'll see what happens with that. Hopefully I won't be back for a few days though so, in case you haven't done it yet in the US... 

Toodle pips!

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricane Zeta: October 28, Update A

Getting straight to the story today... Hurricane Zeta made landfall at around 4pm local time in southeastern Louisiana, about 60 miles SSW of New Orleans and near Cocodrie as a cat 2 hurricane with winds of 110mph. It's now at 31.5N, 88.7W, heading NE 31mph and is now a cat 1 hurricane with winds of 75mph (central pressure 985mb) and is over Mississippi. 

The NHC wrote this today: "Somewhat surprisingly, Zeta has rapidly intensified this afternoon." It was a little stronger than I was expecting, but I wasn't too surprised that it was a cat 2 given that I think they had underestimated it since it moved onto the Yucatan peninsula. It had a really good structure - until that vorticity in the upper troposphere begins to decrease, I've noticed that storms are pretty persistent regardless of other ocean or atmospheric influences. However, given the crazy turmoil going on in government at the moment, I think the NHC has done a pretty good job this active year.

The highest storm surge from the https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ site that I saw was at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS (between Slidell, LA and Gulfport, MS), where it was over 8 ft above predicted levels: 

The track takes it across the US and out into the Atlantic. Although it's moving across land, this one will be quite windy and rainy so be ready. That's because the vorticity (circulation) is still really strong throughout the troposphere, plus, it's just about to run into a front so the extra energy from that will cause this to be more blustery and rainy than one would like - although it's fast moving, so it will pass by quickly:

I will stop in tomorrow to see how it fared - but alas, it looks like one fatality at least in New Orleans and a lot of power outage at the moment.

Ciao for now!

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Tropical Storm Zeta: October 27, Update A

Let's just start with our storm in the Gulf today shall we? Tropical Storm Zeta did weaken as it crossed the Yucatan and has remained like that as it carried on into the Gulf - so it's still a Tropical Storm instead of a hurricane.

It's currently at 23.8N, 91.2W, heading NW at 15mph and should be making landfall tomorrow in the Mississippi delta region. 

Officially the winds are 70mph, central pressure is 990mb, which makes it a very strong Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). I think it is a fully fledged hurricane at the moment, with winds somewhere closer to 90-95 mph actually, because there is good circulation in all levels of the troposphere and there is an eye developing.  The circulation remained strong throughout the troposphere as it crossed the Yucatan so I think it was a hurricane all the way through, although it's convection decreased as it wasn't over water. You can see the convection has picked back up now it's over water so the eye is getting a little more obvious:

I would call this a mid-to-strong cat 1 storm at the moment. As I said yesterday, the Gulf is cooler that is was a few weeks ago so that will keep it in check. Alas, the wind shear in the northern Gulf is no longer there so that won't be a factor anymore which means it has a little more room to develop before landfall. Although the official forecast calls for a mid-size cat 1 storm at landfall (around 85mph winds), there is a chance it could be a strong cat 1/weak cat 2.

Be safe out there my friends! You know the drill. More tomorrow. 

Meanwhile, I heard that the swells are going to be increasing in SW England tomorrow (thanks Victor A.!) as a consequence of the Remains of a Hurricane... that'll be Hurricane Epsilon if that's the case as it was last seen heading towards the Norwegian Sea part of the world. I suppose it's just stopping by for a nice cup of tea. ;-) 

Toodles! 

J.

p.s. sorry about the Rays not winning the World Series. I didn't even need to watch the game... I  knew the moment that happened when the fireworks went off like it was July 4th here in L.A.! Congratulations to the Dodgers - first time since 1988! 

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricane Zeta: October 26, Update A

Today NASA confirmed evidence of hidden water on the Moon and we confirmed evidence of a hidden new landform in the water. ;-) 

#ExplorationIsCool.

Hurricane Zeta made landfall just 15 km north of Tulum in the Yucatan at just after 11pm tonight as a cat 1 storm with winds of 80mph, central pressure of 977mb. It's currently at 20.2N, 87.1W, heading NW at 13mph.

It'll be in the Gulf of Mexico in about 12 hours or so, but the NHC think that land interaction will be enough to make it a Tropical Storm. I think it may stay as a hurricane as it crosses, but regardless, I agree with them in that it will be a hurricane in the Gulf. Convection is pretty good so it is dumping a lot of rain over the peninsula.  

The Gulf is quite a bit cooler now than it was a few weeks ago, so it's unlikely that this will be a strong hurricane and the water right along the northern coast is now cooler than 26 deg C. At the moment there looks like there is some pretty good wind shear over the northern half of the Gulf as well and if that continues, it will keep this storm in check. 

Until tomorrow... 

Toodle pip! 

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Tropical Storm Zeta: October 25, Update A

A very exciting day in the world of ocean exploration today... there was a live expedition dive on the first reef of its size discovered in the Great Barrier Reef in over 120 years! Those aboard the R/V Falkor discovered and mapped this detached reef 5 days ago - it measures about 500m from the base to the top, with the shallowest part being about 40m below the sea surface, and it's about 300m long and 50m wide:

It's the 'pinnacle' in the middle of the inset in the screen capture above. If you want to see the expedition, you can find the video here for the lowest part of the reef and here for the shallowest part of the reef - including the very healthy top - all seen for the first time by humans. Here's a snapshot of the shallowest part of the reef: 

Meanwhile, in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Zeta is now a mid-size Tropical Storm with winds of 60mph, central pressure of 996mb (TS range: 39-74mph). The intensity forecast was shifted upward and it's now expected to be a mid-sized cat 1 storm when it makes landfall in the Yucatan peninsula tomorrow. I think it's already a hurricane because there is good circulation (vorticity) throughout the troposphere and there is strong convection because of the very warm and deep warm waters it is over:

There is not a lot of wind shear, so there is nothing really to keep it from continuing to intensify until it reaches land. It's at 18.2N, 83.9W, heading NNW at a very very slow 2mph - i.e. pretty much stationary. 

I agree with the location of the center today, so I'll go with the NHC track now. It did shift to the west as the center was shifted a little to the south of the location. Again, the landfall location in the northern Gulf is still a bit uncertain of course, so be prepared from TX to FL. 

More tomorrow of course! 

Ciao,

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricane Epsilon and Tropical Depression 28: October 24, Update A

A rare comment to start today - on baseball! Congratulations to the Rays for today's game! 2-2 against the Dodgers in the World Series! I lived St. Pete for many years but now I live in LA... it's almost a win-win scenario for me. Although I was there in person for the historic Game 7 of the 2008 ALC against the Boston Red Sox in Tropicana Field, so I may be a little biased towards the Rays. :-) 

As for hurricanes... 

Hurricane Epsilon

Hurricane Epsilon is barely hanging on as a hurricane. It's at  41.3N, 56.1W, heading NE at a whopping 24mph.

Looks like it's heading into the North Atlantic towards Iceland. I hear it's really nice there... and I love that Icelandic band... umm... Fire Saga? ;-)

Winds are 75mph, central pressure is 960mb, which makes this very barely a cat 1 (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). Circulation is still pretty strong throughout the troposphere and there is some convection, so I think it may be a little stronger than 75mph but not by much so a cat 1 status seem good to me.

Regardless, it's hanging out in the North Atlantic and will slowly diminish. The NHC say it'll be a Tropical Storm by tomorrow (or post-tropical) so I think this will be my last update on Epsilon.

Tropical Depression 28

That takes us to Tropical Depression 28... perhaps the future TS Zeta! The last time we saw this, it began on the 30th Dec, 2005! In case you missed my link to the xkcd comic (using actual NHC Advisories) when I started posting on TS Epsilon this year...

So... TD 28...sigh. I'm so sorry for those of you in the northern Gulf. The pressure fields have really not been in your favor this year...

TD 28 is currently at 18.9N, 83.1W, heading nowhere in particular because it's stuck. However, I think the track will get adjusted a bit because they may have the wrong central location at the moment - to me it looks like it's actually a little more to the south and east of this location, perhaps around 15-16N, ~82W. Although there is some wind shear from the west to east, so they may be using a center that's lower in the troposphere than the one I am seeing. 

As for intensity, officially it's winds are 35mph, central pressure is 1004 mb, which makes it a Tropical Depression (TD range: 17-38mph). However, I think it's stronger than this - perhaps with winds somewhere in the 60-70mph range. There is circulation in all levels of the troposphere - although again, the wind shear is making that a little complicated. It is over some very warm water, with the upper 130-150m warmer than 26 deg C. And there is some extremely strong convection (because of the very warm water):

It's tricky to assess the future track until the center is fixed - so that's the first thing that needs to be figured out. They have a plane in the system at the moment so we should have a better idea tomorrow. 

Speaking of tomorrow... that's when I'll be back. 

Ciao for now!

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricane Epsilon: October 22, Update A

Must be a Thursday... still can't get the hang of them. ;-) It was rather on the busy side of the spectrum, so a very quick update.

Hurricane Epsilon is still a hurricane. The End. 

Ok... Hurricane Epsilon is at 32.6N, 61.6W, heading NNW at 9mph.  It's passing at a safe distance from Bermuda (well done, Bermuda), which got a little bit of a breeze today, and will be staying away from Canada as well - maybe heading to the UK for jaffa cakes and some tea though (lucky thing... I ran out of jaffa cakes about 1 month into this pandemic!) so I'll keep an eye on it. 

It's a cat 1 now with winds of 85mph, central pressure of 968mb). Still not a lot of convection really for a hurricane... 

It's moving over cooler waters but the vorticity (circulation) is still strong in the lower half of the troposphere with some still in the upper levels so I agree with the hurricane status. 

Now, The End. Told you it would be a quick note today. 

Toodle pip! 

J.

p.s. make sure you VOTE if you are in the US! (just reminding you in case you forgot there was an election ;-)). 

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricane Epsilon: October 21, Update A

Time for a quick update. It'll only take a zeptosecond... ok, maybe it'll take a wee bit longer than that. Continuing on this week's theme of amazing and wondrous sciency things... scientists measured the smallest interval of time ever - a zeptosecond! It is a trillionth of a billionth of a second!! And for those who like numbers that is 0.000 000 000 000 000 000 001 zs! To put that into a mind-boggling perspective... it takes 247 zeptoseconds for photon (a particle of light) to cross a single molecule of hydrogen! Imagine measuring anything to such precision!!! (yes, it's so cool it warrants multiple exclamation marks!).  Too bad we can't measure larger things, like, oh, hurricanes, so precisely yet. ;-)

Speaking of hurricanes... Hurricane Epsilon was indeed stronger yesterday and is now a major hurricane with winds of 115mph, central pressure of 953mb, which makes it a cat 3 storm (cat 3 range: 111 - 129mph). It is now at 30N, 60.6W, heading generally NW at 8mph (it just took a jog to the north since the last advisory). 

It will stay well to the east of Bermuda, although it'll be a bit breezy tomorrow/Friday - perhaps nice for a spot of kite-flying? The waves should be pretty strong though.  

Satellite imagery is showing a beautiful and strong eye - this may actually be closer to 130mph (cat 4) given how persistent that eye structure is. However, there is dry air which is inhibiting it from truly becoming as big as it would otherwise be - that along with relatively cool sea surface temperatures of just over 26 deg C (barely just enough to keep a storm going). 

You can see that the wind shear has died down in the vicinity of the storm, as expected and the storm clouds are in a pretty good looking circular pattern (to the far north the very very extremely distant outer bands are experiencing some wind shear as they stream off to the east). It looks like wind shear will remain very weak for the next day or so - at least until it gets a lot closer to Bermuda. 

In addition to wind shear, the other factor that makes this a robust storm is that the vorticity (circulation) is strong with this one throughout the troposphere - meaning that it has a very good structure. 

More tomorrow my peeps!

Ciao,

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricane Epsilon: October 20, Update A

Yesterday was diving deep on the northern Great Barrier Reef - seeing things that no-one has ever seen before. Today, it was a touch-down on a distant asteroid to collect a sample of rock and bring it back to Earth. This week is turning into one full of selcouth events! :-) (time to dust off the electronic dictionary... ;-)). 

Speaking of which, Epsilon is now a hurricane, but the good news is that the track has shifted to the east and away from Bermuda:

It is currently at 28.5N, 56.8W, heading NW at a decent 13mph. It's got out of that little stationary spot and part of it is in an area of lower wind shear (the southern part) so it's not too surprising that the intensity has increased. Winds are 75mph, central pressure is 987mb, which makes Epsilon a weak cat 1 storm.

There is an eye, which suggests it's a bit stronger than the official intensity - I'd say closer to 90mph, but still a cat 1 storm. 

It's traveling over water that is still a toasty 27 deg C with the upper ~75m warmer than 26 deg C. At some point tomorrow, it'll start moving over slightly cooler waters so we'll see what that brings. 

The circulation is really good in the lower half of the troposphere, with the upper levels showing some strong vorticity as well, although not the classic structure we'd see with a grown up hurricane. However, it's enough to classify Epsilon as one today and if that structure stays in place, the cooler water alone won't make a difference - it'll stay a hurricane unless wind shear and dry air also kick in (which is possible as there is some wind shear - which we can see in the satellite imagery, and there is some dry air, which we also see in the imagery as there isn't a lot of very strong convection surrounding the eye).

At least it won't be too much of a bother (unless you are sailing out there!). 

Toodle pip!

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Tropical Storm Epsilon: October 19, Update A

We watched the Neverending Story over the weekend in honour of the 400th dive of the deep-sea underwater Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) SuBastian, which is on the Research Vessel Falkor. This dive, in the Great Barrier Reef, is here if you want to catch it sometime. 

Apparently, Neverending Story is also the tale of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season as we are now being visited by Tropical Storm Epsilon. The last time we got to Epsilon was the 2005 hurricane season: Hurricane Epsilon - 29 Nov - 8 Dec 2005, Max Sust Winds: 83 mph (Dec 5 2005). If you really want the tale of the 2005 Hurricane Epsilon (& Zeta!) as told in the words of the NHC, it is well worth reading in cartoon form... https://xkcd.com/1126/. ;-) 

Tropical Storm Epsilon is currently at 25.3N, 55.3W, heading N at a very slow "shhh, I'm not really moving" 2mph. 

It looks like it'll pass close to Bermuda on Friday and I'll go with the NHC track.

 

Winds are currently 45mph, central pressure is 998mb, which makes it a weak Tropical Storm. There is some circulation in the lower layers of the troposphere and some in the middle levels - although not as well developed at those heights yet. It looks like a weak Tropical Storm in the satellite imagery...

You can see that there is some wind shear that is really impacting the northern side of the storm and clouds are streaming off to the east. 

There is some heavy(ish) convection because the water is warm where it is, with the upper 75m being warmer than 26 deg C. But I am not fully convinced it will be a hurricane as it gets closer to Bermuda - the water is quite a bit cooler well before getting near the island, as we can see in this map of the depths of the 26 deg C water:

There is almost no water warmer than 26 deg C from around 30N, so there isn't much from the ocean side to result in intensification to hurricane strength. From an atmospheric perspective is a little trickier to determine this far out. At the moment there is wind shear to the north of the storm, but that looks like it will subside in the next day or so - that's the thing to look out for (and I will). 

That's all for today folks. See ya tomorrow. 

Ciao,

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricane Delta: October 9, Update A

Hurray, 'tis the weekend! Anyone have actual weekends anymore? ;-) 

Hurricane Delta made landfall at around 6pm local time today in Louisiana near Creole and about 10 miles E of Cameron as a weak cat 2 hurricane with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph). Some of those factors I mentioned yesterday took hold and weakened him a bit - quite right too. 

He is now inland and barely a hurricane with winds of 75 mph (cat 1 range: 74-95mph):

He'll be a Tropical Storm soon and then heading down and out from there. He wasn't a very well formed storm at landfall: 

And most of his heavy convection was to the east. You can see the wind shear sweeping the clouds and rainy weather off to the northeast as well.

Landfall was in the same approximate area as Hurricane Laura about 6 weeks ago (I said Sally yesterday - who also caused havoc in the northern central Gulf, but a little more to the east). Lots of people without power and it's a mess because it's the second storm, but he's done and on his way now.

This is my last update on Delta. Next one, if there is one, would be Epsilon. 

That's it for now!

Toodle pip!

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricane Delta: October 8, Update A

Time for an oft-used quote..."Bit of a busy day today! Distressingly little time for sloth or idleness!" (An Ideal Husband) So... 

Hurricane Delta is at 25.7N, 93.6W and heading NNW at 12mph close to the same part of Louisiana as Hurricane Sally in mid-September - yes, that was just three weeks ago! Seems like a lot longer, I know! Landfall is Friday evening - again, keep an eye on the entire cone, not the center track - although with less than 24 hours to go, the NHC are pretty good about the track.

Winds are now officially at 120mph, central pressure is 955mb, which makes him a mid-sized cat 3 hurricane (cat 2 range is 111-129mph) - a major hurricane (which is defined as cat 3 or higher). They have him remaining a cat 3 until landfall, however they also have a disclaimer that... 

"even 24-hour tropical cyclone intensity forecasts as still subject to an uncertainty 

of 1 Saffir-Simpson category, so one should not focus on the exact official 

landfall intensity forecast."

Which I don't recall seeing before. As we saw yesterday, he certainly has some good convective activity going on, and as with other storms, a lot of the wet weather will be to the east. 

And he had a clear eye earlier, which means he was a cat 3 hurricane. However, the eye is not so clear anymore, so I don't think he's as strong as they say. He does still have an eye, so I think he's most likely a strong cat 2/weak cat 3 - maybe with winds around 110mph - at the moment (and may be a cat 2 at landfall). The vorticity (circulation) is good throughout the troposphere. 

I don't see anything that will cause him to strengthen before landfall. The factors that will cause him to weaken are that: (a) He is starting to experience that stronger wind shear as he gets towards the northern Gulf - we can see that as the clouds stream off to the northeast; (b) He took in a little dry air, but it's a little too soon to say if that's going to take hold; (c) If he moves a little more to the east, he'll be over that cooler water that I mentioned yesterday; and (d) interaction with land. 

Be safe out there! 

I'll be back tomorrow, but I can't wrap up the day without wishing my dad a very Happy 93rd Birthday!! :-) 

Ciao for now. 

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricane Delta: October 7, Update A

Another very busy day - flying here, there and everywhere (not literally of course!). (Actually, it's a very busy two weeks, but sleeping is reserved for the 16th, 17th and 18th of October, so there better not be any storms around then!). 

Hurricane Delta is sticking to the plan. He made landfall around 5-6am this morning (local time) south of Cancun as a borderline cat 2 storm and had winds of 110mph by 5.45am local time. 

He's now in the Gulf of Mexico at 22.5N, 90.9W, heading WNW at 17mph. Next landfall will be at the 'usual' 2020 drinking spot (the north-central Gulf!) on Friday - keep an eye on the entire cone, not just the center. 

He did calm down a notch from yesterday's craziness, and quite right too! He's now a cat 1 storm with winds of 90mph, central pressure 972mb (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). 

His circulation (vorticity) is really well developed through the entire troposphere, so he's definitely a hurricane. But there isn't a good eye in the system yet, so I agree with the current estimate of a cat 1 storm. Here are the visible and infrared satellite imagery:

What this shows is (a) no eye, and (b) a lot of convective activity - rainy thundery sorts of things. The convection is because there is a lot of warm water in the Gulf with the upper 75m warmer than 26 deg C, but the good news is that as he gets into the northern Gulf, the warm water is shallower - as you can see by the blue areas in this map of the depth of the 26 deg C water:

That is most likely because of the previous stormy weather you have all had up there (Sally, I believe was one of them). This will stop him from intensifying if he goes over those blue areas. Also slowing down his growth is some dry air which is moving in from the west and is now over the south Texas coast. Wind shear is still on the weaker side, so we'll see how much more he intensifies tomorrow. 

Remember, listen to your local emergency managers. Run from the water, hide from the wind - meaning that if you live in a flood zone and you can evacuate, that would be a good idea. 

More tomorrow!
Ciao,

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Hurricane Delta: October 6, Update A

A scientifically predictable sort of day today. Another positive case from the Supreme Spreader event (coined by The Hubby) in DC right on target and according to the laws of biology, and Hurricane Delta intensified in the Caribbean, right on target and according to the laws of physics. Science is great! (now if only it was as easily applicable to predicting the winning lottery numbers... ;-)). 

He's at 19.5N, 85.1W heading WNW at 16mph and currently looks like a northern Gulf landfall on Friday evening... 

As usual, I will defer to the NHC on the track as they have much better information than I do. 

His winds are 130mph, central pressure is 960mb, which means he's officially a cat 4 storm - although barely as the cat 4 range is 130-156mph. As I said yesterday, there isn't much that was going to keep him from intensifying, however I think they have over-estimated his intensity. He has a tremendous amount of convection because he is over some extremely deep warm water where the upper 100-125m is warmer than 26 deg C, which means that as he churns he has more warm water underneath to feed him:

He's also in an area of low wind shear, which is why he is not too bad looking for a storm... but I don't see a very well defined eye, which I would expect to see in a cat 3 or higher storm: 

There was an eye in the infrared imagery earlier (see below), so I can see that he may have reached the lofty heights of a cat 3 storm briefly (although they said he was a cat 4 - I don't see it in the satellite imagery), but I would say he's in the cat 2/3 range now (somewhere around 110mph) at the most as the eye is not very robust, but there is something there... 

The circulation today is better than it was yesterday - definitely the vorticity signature of a hurricane throughout the troposphere. 

He may get a little stronger again as he gets closer to the Yucatan because the warm water gets deeper again (as you can see from the map of the depths of the 26 deg C isotherm), but he is also getting closer to a little higher wind shear and starting to interact with land, so it may be enough to cancel that out. 

Regardless, he'll be at least a cat 2 hurricane I think on landfall in Mexico tomorrow (and the NHC are thinking he'll still be a cat 4 - but they thought he'd be almost a cat 5 by now and that he is not). This area of Mexico just got many buckets of rain from TS Gamma, so I'm sure it's a soppy mess there and I don't expect his transition will create too much of a dent and he'll still be a hurricane as he emerges back into the Gulf tomorrow evening, just not a major one in my humble opinion. 

Beyond that, I'll see tomorrow. The NHC have him as a major hurricane (cat 3 or higher) from now all the way to landfall in the northern Gulf coast. I would get ready for that, but let's see what his transition across the peninsula does tomorrow first. 

Must run but I'll be back tomorrow. 

Toodle pip!

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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Post-Tropical Storm Gamma and Hurricane Delta: October 5, Update A

Well, that's...

(Image from Le Wine O'Clock)

(A subliminal message for those of you in the US... Please Vote!). 

There is good news and dodgy news in the tropical storm world today. 

Post-Tropical Storm Gamma

The good news is that the wind shear separated Gamma vertically and the low-level center was visible without much convection today, as you can see in the visible and infra-red satellite imagery:

She headed south and will soon be back over land and is forecast to dissipate tomorrow: 

So, that's the end of Gamma. Hurray. 

Hurricane Delta

Meanwhile, in the Caribbean Tropical Depression 26 went straight to Hurricane today. He's at 16.8N, 80.3W, heading WNW at 7mph with the track shifting slightly to the west towards the Yucatan and Gamma...

Winds are officially 80mph, central pressure is 977mb, which means he's a cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). We can see that convection has improved in the last few hours...

But I'm not convinced she's as strong as they think. There is good vorticity (circulation) in the lower half of the troposphere, and there is some vorticity in the upper troposphere, but it's not in a classical circular pattern one would see with a hurricane. I'd say he's a strong Tropical Storm. However, there isn't anything really to keep him in check - wind shear is going to get weaker, and he's going to be moving over some very warm water with the upper ~150m warmer than 26 deg C for the next couple of days:

The only thing that will keep him slightly in check is some dry air ahead of him as we can see in this water vapor satellite imagery with that purple patch in the northwestern Caribbean:

But it's not much, so he'll most likely be a strong hurricane as he gets closer to the Yucatan - which is what the NHC are thinking as well. 

That's it for today other than to say Happy Birthday to my hubby! :-) 

More tomorrow!

Ciao for now,

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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