Hurricane Epsilon: October 20, Update A

Yesterday was diving deep on the northern Great Barrier Reef - seeing things that no-one has ever seen before. Today, it was a touch-down on a distant asteroid to collect a sample of rock and bring it back to Earth. This week is turning into one full of selcouth events! :-) (time to dust off the electronic dictionary... ;-)). 

Speaking of which, Epsilon is now a hurricane, but the good news is that the track has shifted to the east and away from Bermuda:

It is currently at 28.5N, 56.8W, heading NW at a decent 13mph. It's got out of that little stationary spot and part of it is in an area of lower wind shear (the southern part) so it's not too surprising that the intensity has increased. Winds are 75mph, central pressure is 987mb, which makes Epsilon a weak cat 1 storm.

There is an eye, which suggests it's a bit stronger than the official intensity - I'd say closer to 90mph, but still a cat 1 storm. 

It's traveling over water that is still a toasty 27 deg C with the upper ~75m warmer than 26 deg C. At some point tomorrow, it'll start moving over slightly cooler waters so we'll see what that brings. 

The circulation is really good in the lower half of the troposphere, with the upper levels showing some strong vorticity as well, although not the classic structure we'd see with a grown up hurricane. However, it's enough to classify Epsilon as one today and if that structure stays in place, the cooler water alone won't make a difference - it'll stay a hurricane unless wind shear and dry air also kick in (which is possible as there is some wind shear - which we can see in the satellite imagery, and there is some dry air, which we also see in the imagery as there isn't a lot of very strong convection surrounding the eye).

At least it won't be too much of a bother (unless you are sailing out there!). 

Toodle pip!

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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