5 days until the next one. But luckily for you, you'll be hearing from me a little (a bit of a busy week ahead, but I'll pop in as much as I can)...
Tropical Storm Gamma
She's loitering in the Gulf of Mexico at 22.8N, 87.2W and almost stationary at 2mph (heading slightly E).
The forecast track above will mostly likely change for a number of reasons. First, the center wasn't quite at the location they thought as she emerged into the Gulf of Mexico and has shifted to the northeast, so the forecast track may shift as the models take in this new position. Second, the additional complication to the track is that she is almost stationary, which means that the pressure fields can change around her before she moves. Third, there is another storm entering the Gulf this week which she'll be attracted towards - what's really uncertain is exactly where she will be when the other storm enters so the level of interaction is unclear at the moment. One of the many possibilities is that the general direction that one takes may be the one this may also take. And fourth, I still don't think they have the right center position. From the satellite imagery:
It looks like she may be a bit north of the 22.7N location they currently have her at. There is some low-level circulation which is to the south, but the upper level stuff is to the north which could be a result of the strong wind shear she is experiencing - which is also shifting a lot of that convection over Florida. The convection is strong because she's over some very warm and deep warm water.
Winds are 60mph, central pressure is 998mb, which makes her a mid-sized Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). Circulation has decreased in the upper troposphere but is strong in the lower half of the troposphere, so I agree with the Tropical Storm status today.
There is a lot of uncertainty with this one - anything from heading south and dissipating over land, to being impacted by TD 26 (the future Delta).
Tropical Depression 26 (the future Delta)
The future Delta is currently at 17N, 77.3W, and he's heading WNW at 9mph. He's just south of Jamaica.
The track takes him to the mid-northern Gulf but of course, with TS Gamma in the way, I think that may shift - although the models are in good agreement on this one.
Winds are currently 35mph, central pressure is 1006mb, which makes him a Tropical Depression. There is only circulation in the lowest level of the troposphere - nothing really in the mid-levels, so he's definitely not a Tropical Storm yet. There is also a lot of wind shear (the same system that is causing shear impacting TS Gamma), which we can see as in this case, the clouds are being swept to the west:
He's also over some very warm and deep warm water, which is why there is so much convective activity.
Let's see what tomorrow brings - especially in Gamma (they currently have a plane going through the system so we'll have much better data soon - as will the models).
Oh, and it was NOAA's 50th Anniversary yesterday!! Without NOAA there wouldn't be a weather forecast, hurricane or severe storm forecasts, tidal information, sea levels, fisheries information, ocean data... actually, it's quite a long list! So Thank you and Happy Anniversary NOAA!
Toodle pip for today!
J.
Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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