Hurricane Delta: October 8, Update A

Time for an oft-used quote..."Bit of a busy day today! Distressingly little time for sloth or idleness!" (An Ideal Husband) So... 

Hurricane Delta is at 25.7N, 93.6W and heading NNW at 12mph close to the same part of Louisiana as Hurricane Sally in mid-September - yes, that was just three weeks ago! Seems like a lot longer, I know! Landfall is Friday evening - again, keep an eye on the entire cone, not the center track - although with less than 24 hours to go, the NHC are pretty good about the track.

Winds are now officially at 120mph, central pressure is 955mb, which makes him a mid-sized cat 3 hurricane (cat 2 range is 111-129mph) - a major hurricane (which is defined as cat 3 or higher). They have him remaining a cat 3 until landfall, however they also have a disclaimer that... 

"even 24-hour tropical cyclone intensity forecasts as still subject to an uncertainty 

of 1 Saffir-Simpson category, so one should not focus on the exact official 

landfall intensity forecast."

Which I don't recall seeing before. As we saw yesterday, he certainly has some good convective activity going on, and as with other storms, a lot of the wet weather will be to the east. 

And he had a clear eye earlier, which means he was a cat 3 hurricane. However, the eye is not so clear anymore, so I don't think he's as strong as they say. He does still have an eye, so I think he's most likely a strong cat 2/weak cat 3 - maybe with winds around 110mph - at the moment (and may be a cat 2 at landfall). The vorticity (circulation) is good throughout the troposphere. 

I don't see anything that will cause him to strengthen before landfall. The factors that will cause him to weaken are that: (a) He is starting to experience that stronger wind shear as he gets towards the northern Gulf - we can see that as the clouds stream off to the northeast; (b) He took in a little dry air, but it's a little too soon to say if that's going to take hold; (c) If he moves a little more to the east, he'll be over that cooler water that I mentioned yesterday; and (d) interaction with land. 

Be safe out there! 

I'll be back tomorrow, but I can't wrap up the day without wishing my dad a very Happy 93rd Birthday!! :-) 

Ciao for now. 

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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