Tropical Storm Gamma: October 3, Update A

Not much time today, so jumping right into the fray... 

Tropical Storm Gamma has crossed the Yucatan, dumping a LOT of rain, and is officially at 21.3N, 88W, heading NW at 7mph. 

The forecast calls for her to make a left turn tomorrow evening and head into the Bay of Campeche. She was stronger than they thought, and as I thought she was closer to hurricane strength. She made landfall near Tulum, Mexico around noon local time with winds of 70mph. I think she was stronger than that actually. 

She's been over land for 12 hours or so now, and winds are only now 60mph, central pressure is 990mb, which makes her a mid-sized Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph) is still under a lot of wind shear, as we can see from the satellite imagery and the clouds streaming off to the northeast.  

The circulation is strong throughout the troposphere, including in the upper troposphere. This suggests to me that she is still a strong Tropical Storm at the very least as she emerges into the warm Gulf of Mexico waters. The wind shear is keeping her in check though. There is also some dry air to the northwest...

...but I think it's not going to be enough to really impact her intensity - at least not tomorrow.

There's another blob in the Caribbean with a 60% chance of development. I'll get to that one tomorrow if it develops.

Ciao for now!

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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