Tropical Storm Epsilon: October 19, Update A

We watched the Neverending Story over the weekend in honour of the 400th dive of the deep-sea underwater Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) SuBastian, which is on the Research Vessel Falkor. This dive, in the Great Barrier Reef, is here if you want to catch it sometime. 

Apparently, Neverending Story is also the tale of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season as we are now being visited by Tropical Storm Epsilon. The last time we got to Epsilon was the 2005 hurricane season: Hurricane Epsilon - 29 Nov - 8 Dec 2005, Max Sust Winds: 83 mph (Dec 5 2005). If you really want the tale of the 2005 Hurricane Epsilon (& Zeta!) as told in the words of the NHC, it is well worth reading in cartoon form... https://xkcd.com/1126/. ;-) 

Tropical Storm Epsilon is currently at 25.3N, 55.3W, heading N at a very slow "shhh, I'm not really moving" 2mph. 

It looks like it'll pass close to Bermuda on Friday and I'll go with the NHC track.

 

Winds are currently 45mph, central pressure is 998mb, which makes it a weak Tropical Storm. There is some circulation in the lower layers of the troposphere and some in the middle levels - although not as well developed at those heights yet. It looks like a weak Tropical Storm in the satellite imagery...

You can see that there is some wind shear that is really impacting the northern side of the storm and clouds are streaming off to the east. 

There is some heavy(ish) convection because the water is warm where it is, with the upper 75m being warmer than 26 deg C. But I am not fully convinced it will be a hurricane as it gets closer to Bermuda - the water is quite a bit cooler well before getting near the island, as we can see in this map of the depths of the 26 deg C water:

There is almost no water warmer than 26 deg C from around 30N, so there isn't much from the ocean side to result in intensification to hurricane strength. From an atmospheric perspective is a little trickier to determine this far out. At the moment there is wind shear to the north of the storm, but that looks like it will subside in the next day or so - that's the thing to look out for (and I will). 

That's all for today folks. See ya tomorrow. 

Ciao,

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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