A rare comment to start today - on baseball! Congratulations to the Rays for today's game! 2-2 against the Dodgers in the World Series! I lived St. Pete for many years but now I live in LA... it's almost a win-win scenario for me. Although I was there in person for the historic Game 7 of the 2008 ALC against the Boston Red Sox in Tropicana Field, so I may be a little biased towards the Rays. :-)
As for hurricanes...
Hurricane Epsilon
Hurricane Epsilon is barely hanging on as a hurricane. It's at 41.3N, 56.1W, heading NE at a whopping 24mph.
Looks like it's heading into the North Atlantic towards Iceland. I hear it's really nice there... and I love that Icelandic band... umm... Fire Saga? ;-)
Winds are 75mph, central pressure is 960mb, which makes this very barely a cat 1 (cat 1 range: 74-95mph). Circulation is still pretty strong throughout the troposphere and there is some convection, so I think it may be a little stronger than 75mph but not by much so a cat 1 status seem good to me.
Regardless, it's hanging out in the North Atlantic and will slowly diminish. The NHC say it'll be a Tropical Storm by tomorrow (or post-tropical) so I think this will be my last update on Epsilon.
Tropical Depression 28
That takes us to Tropical Depression 28... perhaps the future TS Zeta! The last time we saw this, it began on the 30th Dec, 2005! In case you missed my link to the xkcd comic (using actual NHC Advisories) when I started posting on TS Epsilon this year...
So... TD 28...sigh. I'm so sorry for those of you in the northern Gulf. The pressure fields have really not been in your favor this year...
TD 28 is currently at 18.9N, 83.1W, heading nowhere in particular because it's stuck. However, I think the track will get adjusted a bit because they may have the wrong central location at the moment - to me it looks like it's actually a little more to the south and east of this location, perhaps around 15-16N, ~82W. Although there is some wind shear from the west to east, so they may be using a center that's lower in the troposphere than the one I am seeing.
As for intensity, officially it's winds are 35mph, central pressure is 1004 mb, which makes it a Tropical Depression (TD range: 17-38mph). However, I think it's stronger than this - perhaps with winds somewhere in the 60-70mph range. There is circulation in all levels of the troposphere - although again, the wind shear is making that a little complicated. It is over some very warm water, with the upper 130-150m warmer than 26 deg C. And there is some extremely strong convection (because of the very warm water):
It's tricky to assess the future track until the center is fixed - so that's the first thing that needs to be figured out. They have a plane in the system at the moment so we should have a better idea tomorrow. Speaking of tomorrow... that's when I'll be back.
Ciao for now!
J.
Twitter: jyovianstorm
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
--------------------------------------
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment