Tropical Storm Gamma: October 2, Update A

What a 24 hours! I think predicting hurricanes just became easier than predicting the rest of 2020.

Just in time for the weekend, Tropical Storm Gamma came out to visit and is currently in the northern Caribbean: 

She's at 19.1N, 86.1W, heading NW at 9mph towards the Yucatan tomorrow. 

Winds are 40mph, central pressure is 998mb, which makes her a very weak Tropical Storm (TS range: 39-73mph). Convection has picked up a lot in the last few hours:

That's because she's over some very warm water that is quite deep - the upper ~175m is warmer than 26 deg C. A buffet of energy there! Here is the map of the depths of water warmer that 26 deg C. 

There is some circulation in the lower half of the troposphere, but I also see some in the upper troposphere which suggests that she's actually a lot stronger than a wispy Tropical Storm... I'd say she was closer to hurricane strength (maybe with winds in the 70-75 mph range) although the official NHC forecast says she won't be stronger than 50mph winds before landfall. There is some wind shear which is keeping her a little in check, but I still think she's much stronger than the official values. 

I'll pop in tomorrow to see how she's doing. It's been a long week... nap time now!  

Toodle pip! 

J.

Twitter:  jyovianstorm

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. 
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