Thursday, August 16, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Hurricane Dean: August 16, Update C

Hurricane Dean is now a Cat 2 and will be in the Caribbean tomorrow. He's
at ~14N, 59W, and is moving forward at a brisk 25 mph. The bad news is
that the water temperatures will increase from the current 28-29 deg C to
29-30 deg C once he has crossed the islands and the wind shear will still
be weak. The good news is that he might weaken a little bit in crossing
the islands - probably not enough to knock him from his lofty cat 2 status

Earlier today I was hoping that the low that was over the Bahamas region
would have intensified enough to change his path. It is still a little too
soon to tell because he's too far away, so the track is still the same for
now - west-northwest.

But there is some good news. The wind shear in the central Caribbean has
gradually increased in the past 24 hours. The higher shear region is still
at least 2 days away from the storm and the it could weaken again but, at
the moment, it is in the current forecast path of the storm and if it
persists it could weaken the storm or at least stop it intensifying.
That's still a couple of days away.

For those with interests in the US Virgin Island area, the latest report I
got from there was at about 6pm this evening. The winds were 7-10 mph, and
it was still a clear day (thanks TJ :) ).

What an 'interesting' day. Luckily for you, I think that's all I have to
say for now.

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Jyo_Hurricane mailing list

No comments: