Sunday, August 19, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Hurricane Dean: August 19, Update A

Not much change in my track or intensity forecast. The official center of
the cone has moved southward and I agree more with this than the one they
had yesterday. The only tweak I would make is that I think it will pass a
little bit closer to Grand Cayman (~19.2N, 81.4W) than it looks like - but
it is all within the cone, so it's not a big change. I agree with the area
of landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula - south of Cozumel, north of

Hurricane Dean is still barreling (18mph) west-northwestward as a
mid-to-strong cat 4 with winds of 145 mph. Hurricane force winds extend
out to 60 miles. The eye should still either clip Jamaica or pass very
very close to it to the south in about 12 hours.

There's really not much more to add to this that I didn't say yesterday.
It's still relatively quiet in the Atlantic.

Toodles for now,
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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