Friday, August 31, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Depression 6: August 31, Update A

Well we almost made it into September before I sent you another little note.

The future TS Felix is in the vicinity of the windward islands at the
moment. It is still a pretty weak system, and it was after the NHC sent a
plane in to investigate that they upgraded it from the 'invest' to a
tropical depression.

It's at about 12.5N, 60W, so over the southern windward islands, and is
moving at a nice pace at 16 mph. There is low-to-moderate wind shear ahead
of the storm - at least until it reaches the middle of the Caribbean in a
couple of days. The two competing effects for development I think are
actually the warm temperatures of the water in the Caribbean (29-30 deg
C), which will help in to intensify the system, and the South American and
mass which is interacting with the southern edge of the storm. It will
probably be TS Felix by tomorrow.

There is still a high pressure to the north, which is steering the system
to the west-northwest, and therefore I agree with the official path for
the next couple of days. After that, the path is less certain (way to
state the obvious here!), but at the moment I would agree with the
official path that keeps in heading towards the Yucatan (again, alas).

I am currently on a different planet at the moment (i.e. taking a break :)
) so I'll only be checking in once in a while. But I don't expect too much
change for a couple of days anyway.

Enjoy the weekend!

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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