Wednesday, August 15, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] TS Dean & TD 5: August 15, Update A

TD 5:

I'm going to start with TD5 because that is closest to land. I've been
watching this system for days and days and days... it's been like
watching grass grow. But it decided to make a move, and got 'upgraded'
to TD 5 last night. It appears to me that the center of circulation is
to the south of the region of convection, and it also looks like it's
heading into a region of slightly more wind shear (as it approaches the
coast). It is over warm water, but it is not anywhere near the Loop
Current, which would otherwise have provided it with warm water from
beneath the ocean surface as well. It is not a very well formed system
at all. I agree with the forecast track - somewhere in the southern
Texas/Mexico region. *If * this does develop, it will be yet another
very weak Tropical Storm this year. Regardless of whether or not it is a
'named storm' (ooh aaah), there won't be that much wind associated with
this system but in keeping with this year's weather theme for Texas - it
will bring rain. There's a lot of water vapor in and around this system.
I'm sure they'll be pleased about that. Get your brollys and wellies out
(as we call them in the UK: US translation: Umbrellas and err... rain
boots?) :)

TS Dean:

This little guy on the other hand may eventually prove to be a bit more
of a nuisance. It all depends on the path he takes in life. There is
still some wind shear affecting him, coming out of the northeast, so the
bulk of the convection is still to the southwest of the circulation but
the wind shear is decreasing. There is dry air to the north and west of
this system. The convective activity is a little better defined around a
broad area which would be the center, although it is still difficult to
pinpoint the exact center of circulation. As for the ocean, it is over
water temperatures of about 27-28 deg C, and it will remain over these
water temperatures for at least another day. Given these conditions, I
don't see this storm developing too much today at least. The high
pressure is still firmly in place and at the moment, I think the system
will stay on it's westward track for longer than the NHC guidance shows
(they show a steady northward drift - not turn - starting today). I'll
have a better map after 10.30am, so I'll comment again on this later today.

More Later.

(This and previous posts are available at

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast.

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