Friday, August 17, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Hurricane Dean: August 17, Update A

Hurricane Dean is just about a cat 2 at the moment after crossing the
islands (14.4N, 61.7W). He will regroup and regain some strength because
he will be going over warm water and will be in an area of relatively
low wind shear for now but it's unlikely that he'll get above a cat 2
today - and so I agree with the official forecast. The wind shear in the
central Caribbean is still there, and may still play a good role in the
intensity of this storm.

The high pressure to his north has intensified and is extending farther
south into the Caribbean. This can result in one of two things: he will
take a southward path or he will slow down. The official forecast calls
for him to slow down from his current 23 mph forward speed. If you
think of the high pressure as a hill that the storm is trying to skirt
around, so if the high 'moves' in front of the storm, the storm has to
either change its direction in response, or slow down because it is
going 'up-hill'.

At the moment, it seems unlikely to me that the low over the Bahamas is
going to be big enough to interact with Dean.

Unless there's a significant change in the track or intensity today,
I'll be back tomorrow.
Have a lovely day!

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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