Monday, August 13, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] TD 4: August 13

Tropical Depression 4:

The wave that came off Africa a few days ago has now been officially
classified as Tropical Depression 4 and is in the vicinity of 12N, 30W.
It looks to me as though the center of circulation is to the east of the
region of convection (because of easterly winds - winds blowing from the
east), which has been the case since it left the African coast. This
will hamper the development of this system, despite it being over water
temperatures of 27-28 degs. In a couple of days it will be over warmer
water and in an area of lower wind shear. It has a large portion of the
Atlantic to cross yet so there is a chance that this one might intensify
to a Tropical Storm (or Hurricane eventually) - in that I agree with the
NHC forecast. There has been at least one storm this year that barely
made it to TS status and I would not have been so quick to name it, but
it's not my decision. Ho hum.

TD4 is moving in a general westward direction along the lower edge of a
region of high pressure. As a reminder: in the northern hemisphere,
these storms move in a clockwise direction around high pressure systems.
At the moment, the high pressure extends over the Windward Islands, PR,
Cuba, FL, all the way westward... it even covers Texas ;). According to
the models, they see that the pressure will erode in a few days, and the
storm will take that bend, moving in a more north-westerly direction.
This is a likely scenario, but I can't yet tell how far westward the
storm will go before bending. You'll be hearing more from me about this

As I have your attention (maybe?), there is also some convective
activity off the northern tip of Cuba. It is heading into the Gulf, but
as with TD4, it looks like the center of circulation is not in the same
place and the rainfall. I'm keeping an eye on this one too.


P.S. If you have a storm related question or I use jargon you aren't
familiar with it, please send me a note and I will clarify in a
subsequent message.

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast.

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