Wednesday, August 22, 2007

[Jyo_hurricane] Hurricane Dean: August 22, Update A

It is done. Hurricane Dean made landfall in Mexico (again) about an hour
ago (12.30pm EST). At 11am he was upgraded to a cat 2, and made
landfall as weak cat 2 with winds of 100 mph/87 kt (cat 2: 96-110mph,
83-95 kt). Phew.

It looks like the wind shear, land interaction, and no warm water with
depth was enough to keep the intensity low - the official forecast
yesterday just after he left the Yucatan was for a cat 3 at landfall.

The lowest pressure for Dean was 906 mb, and that was at the Yucatan
landfall. That's the third lowest Atlantic hurricane pressure at
landfall. Hurricane Gilbert (1988) hit Cancun as a cat 5 with 900 mb at
landfall (although it dropped to 888 mb during it's lifetime), and the
1935 Labor Day Hurricane that hit the Florida Keys had ~892 mb at
landfall. The lowest overall pressure for an Atlantic Hurricane was
Hurricane Wilma in 2005, with a low of 882 mb when it was in the middle
of the Caribbean (before it got near to the Yucatan).

I suspect they will be retiring the name 'Dean' from the list at the end
of the year. Hmmm... yet another parallel with the Dean I know... ;)

Switching gear: the mass north of Haiti now is still not doing anything
much. Those of us in Florida will probably get some rain from it in a
day or two, but it isn't a system of any description so don't worry
about it. Related to this...

There's a new term (jargon) in town: 'Invest' (at least it is new to me
this year - maybe I was just living in blissful ignorance in previous
years). Anyway, this new NHC designation is for areas of convection that
may or may not turn into something, but that they are 'investing' some
time in monitoring. I don't mind what they call them, but it seems that
some computer modelers out there must be really bored because yesterday
someone showed me a computer 'spaghetti plot' for this latest 'Invest' -
it's not even designated as a Tropical Depression!!! and it doesn't even
look like it will amount to anything more than some squally weather. I
think the reason this particular area of convection was been brought to
my attention a number of times in the last couple of days is because
these spaghetti model plots were available on the web. It is a bit much
really. There is no need to get that concerned over these 'invests'.
They should at least wait until it is a good TD before posting potential

Well folks, that's all from me until the next one - I'm hoping that
won't be until mid-September (of next year? - ever the optimist) at
least! Or unless I have something else to say (of course).

Enjoy the empty in-box. :)

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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